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The Forum > Article Comments > Turn and face the strange ch-ch-changes > Comments

Turn and face the strange ch-ch-changes : Comments

By Ross Elliott, published 7/5/2020

Some suggest the long-term impacts of the current pandemic will turn fundamentals on their head. Others myself included are more sanguine.

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Breathless Longterm predictions based on major events of the moment can indeed be misplaced.

I remember leftwing academics who predicted the Arab Spring (2010-2011) would boost democracy in the Middle East were proven wrong by 2012. From 2012 Islamist and/or authoritarian governments bounced back or expanded.

Coronavirus? Maybe Trump's poor handling of that crisis will see a slight decline in American influence, compared to China.

But that decline is while Trump remains in power...

If Biden wins in November 2020 a centrist, less isolationist America will likely restore US influence to pre-Trump levels.
Posted by plantagenet, Thursday, 7 May 2020 11:04:06 AM
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Talking of "truisms", it seems true that "Many of the post-pandemic predictions are really just statements of how the prediction-maker has always wanted the world to change". The authoritarian Left and other mad people are rubbing their hands with glee in anticipation of continuing with Morrison's Big Government and socialist control of the population.

On population, a slower growth rate WILL " not be a bad thing", but not something the Leftist social engineers want. And even in South Australia, the government is already panting to reintroduce students from the source of the virus because it's our biggest 'export'. How pathetic.

Working from home post China virus. Even in the short time some people have been doing that, it has been shown, along with home schooling, to be impractical in most occupations. Home is supposed to be a haven from the rat race.

Retail. More online shopping is on the cards, but only because of the lack of stock, lack of knowledge of stock by counter jumpers, and lack of interest by people who think that they are really above retail work. The sudden 'need' to buy online seems to have worked out very well. It's certainly a boon for logistics, and the miserable, money-grubbing attitude of commercial landlords when customers stopped going to shops will make retailers think very carefully about whether they want to continue paying high rents on bricks and mortar, especially if they are victims of the robber barons in big shopping centres.

The other areas mentioned: education, transport, education and health will be as they are now.
Posted by ttbn, Thursday, 7 May 2020 11:08:34 AM
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Elliot:

You ask a lot of questions, challenge ideas and propositions, show graphs to represent trends? All of which are no longer relevant or just flew out the window! As for predictions? I predicted a pandemic when you were saying, she'll be right, we've had seasonal flu before, why the fuss?

And I predicted that the U.S.A. would become the epicentre with the highest fatalities, because of an incompetent administration and a calloused indifference to civilian deaths.

So? I'm to be castigated by indifferent VIP's like yourself as the winds of ch-ch- change blows away the bubble and the cobwebs?

Why? Have a problem with accurate predictions or folk that can still think independently/critically?

Folk have suddenly woken to the fact that density is their new enemy and we live on a continent with vast empty space and soil that on just needs to add water to, to make it grow stuff.

Your (VIP) ideas are so yesterday! I get a VIP you doesn't want change or the new more egalitarian society that like a phoenix, will rise out of the covid-19 rubble?

And it has to spread into rural and regional towns that have been emptying out for several decades.

Immigration has to be paused and possibly for several years as automation replaces humans all over the joint! And an essential if the goal is to be independent self-reliance, as it has to be!

Ditto a transition ASAP to nuclear power as the most rational response to evidence-based science!

As for town planning?

One of the first things we could do to prevent an economic catastrophe, is to build a very fast train down the eastern seaboard.

And as a 900+klm VLT that'll still be the fastest thing operating there a hundred years from now.

Got to get shot of the white shoe brigade/robber baron element that will be the lead in the saddlebag and the albatross around our economic necks as we try to recover?
Alan B
Posted by Alan B., Thursday, 7 May 2020 11:52:47 AM
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The MSM is encouraging scary, wild predictions from people completely unknown to the public just because they are called 'doctor'.

The latest nonsense comes from the current (they are constantly changed) West Australian president of the state branch of the AMA, Dr. Andrew Miller, who blurts out that social distancing "will become a way of life", as will "constant testing".

What a load of tosh from a doctors' union official. The media should ashamed of itself for trawling for such fear mongering rubbish.
Posted by ttbn, Thursday, 7 May 2020 11:53:50 AM
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I do a fair amount of my shopping on line, but am finding anything from over seas it now taking unacceptable delivery times. I will be doing less.

I am heartily sick of grocery shopping on line. It is an unsatisfactory way to shop for fruit, vegetables & meat among other things, & substitution is most unsatisfactory. I am going back to supermarket & specialist shop shopping as of now.

Both my daughters are working from home, & the youngest in particular is finding it very frustrating where interaction is often required. Sending emails & waiting for an answer is adding at least an hour a day to the time taken to do her job.

Tourist operations are & will continue to be a disaster. I'm glad I'm not running one now, I hate sacking people. Our custom was about 93% Australian, those with large foreign trade must be in major trouble, with any possible recovery probably years off. My marine division required 80% capacity to be profitable. Anything less than 70% you lost less leaving the boats tied to the jetty. I doubt the necessary traffic will be available in less than a year after the economy is fully reopened.
Posted by Hasbeen, Friday, 8 May 2020 1:12:27 AM
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