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The Forum > Article Comments > Britannic Herd Immunity and Coronavirus > Comments

Britannic Herd Immunity and Coronavirus : Comments

By Binoy Kampmark, published 20/3/2020

Herd immunity, as a policy, would involve easing off risk and preventive measures

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Don't need a crystal ball to see you're right! One only needs witnessing those scenes of a hugely crowed Bondi beach and so-called western doctors, with masks not used to cover their noses! And even as the news cameras zoomed in to film this asinine absurdity.

One has to ask, did said doctors get their medical degrees, from a weetbix box? I assume you didn't get off the wagon, cause you were never on it, as the master of the professional insult and cyberbullying has totally and unnecessarily alleged? And demonstrates as nothing else can, he has lost the plot and any semblance of civilised debate!

And as an obnoxious cretin? Has to resort to hurling, barely veiled insult! And very likely is too deep in his cups and safe on the family ranch, to give a flying french frankfurt.

I don't suffer fools lightly and have engaged in some robust debate with some of our less intellectually able, when there was a case and a reason for that fire and passion. But not, I believe, when there never ever was!

Take care and stay safe.
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Sunday, 22 March 2020 10:59:01 AM
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We don't know if or when a vaccine will come. It wasn't a real goer with SARS. The only sure personal immunity may be that which comes from infection, and herd immunity will arise from enough personal immunities.

From my readings at http://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/ whatever the shape of the 'curve', the area under it is the same, meaning the same number of people will be infected. Flattening it reduces the intensity of need of ICU's, giving more a chance at survival.

So how do we flatten the curve sufficiently while getting everybody infected who is going to be, because that's what may need to happen without a vaccine. Right now we have the entire community practicing cleanliness, distancing and isolation, with the expectation of a vaccine to avoid the whole curve having to move through. But without a vaccine there will be no end other than a very long natural one, with associated economic ruination of people's lives. Meanwhile, an attempt is to be made to somehow put the economy into an induced coma so when we awake we just carry on from where we left off. Really?

From http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ we see the vast percentage of mortalities occur amongst the older generation. This suggests younger people could live more ordinary lives, while becoming infected and recovering with high probability, without overwhelming the health system.
Meanwhile, the more vulnerable by age and co-morbities could quarantine, some remaining in the workforce online. As immunity builds amongst the young and their infection curve passes the remainder of the community would gradually emerge to a health system capable of providing a high survival probability.
The outcome of this path would be to soften the economic impact on those building homes and families.

There are extreme camps in all this. One calls for the virus to be let to run its course e.g. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/24/older-people-would-rather-die-than-let-covid-19-lockdown-harm-us-economy-texas-official-dan-patrick Another calls for total global lockdown, now.

cont'd
Posted by Luciferase, Sunday, 29 March 2020 9:53:53 PM
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Cont'd from above:

To suggest a middle path accepting the inevitability of infections while minimising economic damage to people's lives leaves any government suggesting it to accusations of wrecklessness. It's a wonderful position for an Opposition to be in as every death is a nail in the government's coffin, regardless of its inevitability.
Posted by Luciferase, Sunday, 29 March 2020 9:55:05 PM
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