TINY LABOR LEAD & HUNG PARLIAMENT LIKELY TO CONTINUE AFTER MAY ELECTION

The IPSOS Polling over the last few months had Labor 3-4% in the lead on Party Preferred. The May 18 (or sooner) 2019 Federal Election looked to be in the bag for Labor.

No longer.

The latest IPSOS poll covering January 2019, Party Preferred, was published in mid February [1].

This indicates Labor (at 51%) only leads by 1% with the Coalition 49%.

This means (as at January-February 2019) that there will be a Cliffhanger election and

possibly a continued Hung Parliament with the crossbench Greens and Independents continuing to have the Balance of Power in the House of Reps and the Senate.

Since January Labor has been losing on Refugees-Border Security issue with an average electorate more conservative than Labor Left+Phelps+Greens on Refugees-Border Security. This is why Shorten (backed by Labor's Center and Right) is becoming more conservative on Refugees-Border Security than Shorten was in late 2018.

So the Phelps+Greens (who are to the left of the average electorate) are likely to increasingly clash with Labor on Refugees-Border Security - a major problem for Shorten's-Labor prospects.

[1] http://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ipsos-poll-support-for-labor-falls-after-clash-over-refugees-and-border-security-20190217-p50ycu.html

The Liberals look a little more appealing now they are rid of Turnbull/Banks who have been shown to be totally self interested labour lite/greens.

good news if true. Julie Bishop is also going. Looking better all the time.

Julie Bishop's Division of Curtin has been an ultra-safe Liberal seat. [1]

If the Liberals can put up a substantial candidate

AND there is no (Phelps like) substantial Independent running:

Then the Liberals are likely to retain Curtin.

Probably the biggest threat to the Liberals is WHAT JULIE BISHOP SAYS AT INTERVIEWS

about the attempted Dutton/Abbott "coup" that led to Morrison

that then led to Bishop no longer being Deputy Liberal Leader.

Who then left the Foreign Ministry. Who is now leaving the backbench of Parliament...

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Curtin#Members

Rubbish. Someone has been at the kool aid again. The vibe on Morrison et co is one of disgust, disdain and despair. Never in my 61 years lifetime have we seen so much blatant in your face corruption, cronyism, incompetence and downright moronic decision making. In portfolio after portfolio. Dont start me on Bloody Barnaby and the Stinking Fish. Wheres our river gone, mate? Been soaked up by cotton? The stench of dodgy backroom dealings hangs over them all. Thrown any more hundreds of millions at that beachshack Peter? Any more clean coal out there Tony? No? Cant imagine why. Any more women you want to bully, fellas? Hmm? You DO know we all have mothers, wives, sisters, daughters, granddaughters, colleagues, friends, and sweethearts? We do NOT like the way you treat half the country. This time the polls will not return the coalition. In fact I'd suggest they're in for a record thumping. They could bleed up to a third of their seats. Its not just the economy, stupid. Its the climate. We have kids and grandkids, and you just dont get it. You've lost your way. Lost your integrity. Lost your social licence to operate. Its time to go.