Most voters will vote Liberal or Labor no matter who is leading their preferred party. Simple. Unsophisticated. Daft. But fact. Prime Ministers don't have the power or attraction that Presidents have. What people think about the PM or the Leader of the Opposition is irrelevant to all but the people who actually vote for them in their electorates. The 'preferred PM' polls are a waste of time. Voting directly for a country's leader is one of the few positive things about a republic.

Shorten has problems inside the party. And mostly from those more to the left. He also suffers from a conviction deficit, as a salesman for dubious policies, his Achilles heel!?

Morrison has no such problem and could sell ice cubes to Eskimoes? The Elephant in the room and front and centre is cost of living issues, coupled to sluggish below par economic growth and climate change.

Given energy impacts through every aspect of life i.e., what we use wear or participate in! There is a cascading ever upward, energy component, putting upward pressure on every element of cost of living!

And passed on wherever that presents as an option. To land at the doorstep of those battlers unable to pass it further on! Ordinary mums and dads, kids and pensioners.

As for franking credits and negative gearing changes?

Shorten is not harmed, given this tiny minority was never ever going to vote for him and some of the affected with kids and grandkids agree in principle, that the wealth acquisition/security is not something the long-suffering taxpayer should be saddled with or subsidise!

As Joe Hockey once announced but bailed on, the age of entitlement is over!

That said, Morrison could come from the rear with a withering burst if he had the courage to back MSR thorium R+D and trials/limited for now, deployment. And thermal coal as a transitional transport fuel, extracted, scrubbed and compressed.

One cubic metre of non-compressed methane has the same calorific value a litre of petrol! But in use, produces 40% less CO2!

Moreover, we're saddling an annual fully imported fuel bill somewhere north of 26 billion per and money that would be better spent inside our own economy!
Alan B.

I'm not so sure tbn. I voted against Turnbull last time, having emailed the local LNP member that I would be voting against him, as long as Turnbull was his leader.

For the future I most definitely will not vote in any way that would assist Shorten become PM.

As with Turnbull, I don't like conmen, so Shorten is definitely out. I think the leaders might have a real effect on how many votes are cast.

When I first started doing this sort of polling I asked people whether they were likely to change their vote. I repolled those people after the election and found that many who said they were very likely to change their vote hadn't, and some who said they wouldn't change their vote, had. I think it is dangerous to make assumptions about how people will vote.

I also ask respondents how they voted last time, and there is always a significant flow between parties. If there wasn't, then we'd never have governments change. But we are led to believe by the narrative that it is only a small percent who change their vote, because the overall vote doesn't move by much, but in fact the change is much larger, it is just that it nets out against itself.

Yes Graham, and sometimes the swinging voter won't decide until right in front of a polling booth.

Moreover, it's said, only 30% of us understand economics, another 30% understand politics, with the remaining 40% understanding neither?

It's this last cohort of undecided rabble that decides all elections? With informal now becoming a major player?

Given that's so, Morrison can still prove all the pundits wrong and win. I mean, who would have predicted a Trump victory?

I think we get that he is ruthless on border control and needs a little more than being a "devout" Christian/family man, to make the pundits eat their hats!?

For mine that unexpected winning edge is absolutely and totally reliant on energy policy and the massive economic advantages, we'd accrue, with the rollout of thorium powered, carbon-free, MSR!

Used in some of the trials as ultra safe, nuclear waste burning technology. where we earn a quid and produce power that'd cost us virtually nothing.

Just don't hold your breath waiting for Mr Morrison and Com., to have a Damascus moment, or desert the powerful vested interests, that seems to have them by the short and curlies!

There are just 55,000 jobs in the resources mining industry?

Remember when it was found to be politically and economically expedient to barter away 60,000 footwear and textile industry jobs,
Alan B.

Dear GrahamY,

Wow. I really didn't think Shorten's figures would improve by that much such is the distaste for him among people I know. It was always the elephant in the room.

Well it is very much his to lose then. The Coalition is 'cooked' as the youngsters now say.

TINY LABOR LEAD & HUNG PARLIAMENT LIKELY TO CONTINUE AFTER MAY ELECTION

The IPSOS Polling over the last few months had Labor 3-4% in the lead on Party Preferred. The May 18 (or sooner) 2019 Federal Election looked to be in the bag for Labor.

No longer.

The latest IPSOS poll covering January 2019, Party Preferred, was published in mid February [1].

This indicates Labor (at 51%) only leads by 1% with the Coalition 49%.

This means (as at January-February 2019) that there will be a Cliffhanger election and

possibly a continued Hung Parliament with the crossbench Greens and Independents continuing to have the Balance of Power in the House of Reps and the Senate.

Since January Labor has been losing on Refugees-Border Security issue with an average electorate more conservative than Labor Left+Phelps+Greens on Refugees-Border Security. This is why Shorten (backed by Labor's Center and Right) is becoming more conservative on Refugees-Border Security than Shorten was in late 2018.

So the Phelps+Greens (who are to the left of the average electorate) are likely to increasingly clash with Labor on Refugees-Border Security - a major problem for Shorten's-Labor prospects.

[1] http://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ipsos-poll-support-for-labor-falls-after-clash-over-refugees-and-border-security-20190217-p50ycu.html

The Liberals look a little more appealing now they are rid of Turnbull/Banks who have been shown to be totally self interested labour lite/greens.

good news if true. Julie Bishop is also going. Looking better all the time.

Julie Bishop's Division of Curtin has been an ultra-safe Liberal seat. [1]

If the Liberals can put up a substantial candidate

AND there is no (Phelps like) substantial Independent running:

Then the Liberals are likely to retain Curtin.

Probably the biggest threat to the Liberals is WHAT JULIE BISHOP SAYS AT INTERVIEWS

about the attempted Dutton/Abbott "coup" that led to Morrison

that then led to Bishop no longer being Deputy Liberal Leader.

Who then left the Foreign Ministry. Who is now leaving the backbench of Parliament...

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Curtin#Members

Rubbish. Someone has been at the kool aid again. The vibe on Morrison et co is one of disgust, disdain and despair. Never in my 61 years lifetime have we seen so much blatant in your face corruption, cronyism, incompetence and downright moronic decision making. In portfolio after portfolio. Dont start me on Bloody Barnaby and the Stinking Fish. Wheres our river gone, mate? Been soaked up by cotton? The stench of dodgy backroom dealings hangs over them all. Thrown any more hundreds of millions at that beachshack Peter? Any more clean coal out there Tony? No? Cant imagine why. Any more women you want to bully, fellas? Hmm? You DO know we all have mothers, wives, sisters, daughters, granddaughters, colleagues, friends, and sweethearts? We do NOT like the way you treat half the country. This time the polls will not return the coalition. In fact I'd suggest they're in for a record thumping. They could bleed up to a third of their seats. Its not just the economy, stupid. Its the climate. We have kids and grandkids, and you just dont get it. You've lost your way. Lost your integrity. Lost your social licence to operate. Its time to go.