Assumption based on pure speculation.

None of which might eventuate? Glibly and quite adroitly avoids factoring in the new high oil price and with it, record prices at the price-gouged bowser. And the growth of USA debt growing at a trillion per. Plus the tariff trade war!

And while current and already impacting factors might see debt funded economic growth? And rate rises into 2020?

How long can this debt-funded economic Dragon live by consuming itself tail first?

We are sleepwalking backward toward another financial catastrophe, while all we get from our alleged/coal-fired leaders and analysts is absurd confidence, denials and salesmanship!

We need a completely new economic paradigm here! One I've already laid out chapter and verse elsewhere! The one we're assiduously working on right now is concentrating more and more of our finite wealth in fewer and fewer hands.

Even as the gap between the haves and have-nots is ever widening with more and more of former haves joining the growing and bulging ranks of the have-nots and trying to live beneath the poverty line.

An, Emporer's new clothes, trickle-down scenario absolutely guaranteed to exponentially to add evermore numbers to it!

You don't grow a shrinking pie by hollowing out the centre and adding it to the sides.
Alan B.

The Fed is notoriously shite at these forward projections. Back in 2017 they were predicting 2018 GDP at 2.1%. Now 3.1%.

Out by a mere 50%. Their unemployment numbers were out by 25% which for the Fed is about as good as it gets.

Back in the Obama era, the Fed was usually equally inaccurate but on the optimistic side. Now, I'm not suggesting anything political here with the Fed predicting unfounded optimism during Obama's reign and now unfounded pessimism. Rather I suspect that their modelling doesn't quite work in the unconventional world of Trump economics. How can we have trade tensions and still grow the economy?

Bottom line. I'd be taking the Fed forecasts with a large pinch of salt and predicting on the high side of their number

Mhaze: Brilliant 2020 hindsight! Pity about your predictions though? Oh sorry, you don't do that do you?

Just bag those that do when they get it wrong?

Even so, fed predictions are little better than educated guesses, with nearly as much accuracy as a monkey throwing darts at a dartboard?
Alan B.

Its not about hindsight. Its about checking the past accuracy of a particular forecast or set of forecasts and then using that to decide on the likelihood that the next forecast will be right.

Take another example. Suppose someone or some group tells you year in and year out that "next year" we will role out a new form of energy generation. Call it Thorium for example. But each year those forecasts turn out to be wrong. What happens when they make their next forecast about next year?

Now some would look at the past and say - well I'll believe it when I see it. Others on the other hand, particularly those without two brain cells to rub together, will say - oh wow it'll definitely happen.

See how that works.

I'll will however make one prediction that I'm certain will come about. The next time there's any thread on these pages remotely to do with energy, someone will tell all who'll listen (and that's a vanishingly small number these days) that the solution is Thorium.

And he'll be wrong.

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