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The Forum > Article Comments > The new oil cartel threatening OPEC > Comments

The new oil cartel threatening OPEC : Comments

By Irina Slav, published 6/7/2018

Electrification is where OPEC may have to face off with a future oil buyers' cartel.

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Electrification is unlikely to help aviation, farming or long haul trucking. Enthusiasts will no doubt point to absurd counter examples like solar planes only taking a year to circle the globe. Norway's experience is that people have both an EV for short trips and a fuel car for long trips. A hydro dominated grid makes their electricity clean but hypocritically oil exports pay for the EV subsidies. Few other countries can match that.

The end of cheap oil could be a massive blow to the world economy and could arrive in the next decade. Think petrol at say $2.50/L. To prepare we need EVs with a low sticker price (say $20k), 300 km range and a low carbon grid. Only the range requirement is being met.
Posted by Taswegian, Friday, 6 July 2018 9:01:42 AM
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Pretty much correct Taswegian;
A friend has an iEV Mitsubishi electric car and is very happy with it.
He also has a Mazda i3 I think it is which his wife uses to drive to
work and they use for country trips.
He drives the iEV to work every day and it costs him $1.50 a week.

The Australian problem with electric cars is not a lack of government
subsidy but GARO, the Great Australian Ripoff !
This is a charge that overseas companies levy on any sales to Australia.
Example, the Nissan Leaf costs about US$28,000 before income tax rebate.
The cost in the UK is about US$ 36,000 which is about L20,000.
In Australia Nissan charged for the cars made in Japan $51,500 when
I tried to buy one in 2013. The current price they are asking because
they could not sell them at the previous price is $57,500 !
They do not have any stock, surprise surprise !

The situation may improve later this year as Hyundai and Kia will try
and sell their electric car which on videos I have seen is every bit
as good as the Leaf.
I have driven a Leaf and I would buy one in a flash if the price was sensible.
My friend has had his iMEV for five years now and has had no
maintenance costs as he just checks the brakes himself.
They get little use because of regen braking. No regular service
charges etc etc.
The battery has shown no sign of declining capacity but then he is
technically competent and does not abuse it with poor charge practises.
I think his charger is a taper off charger.

As far as on the road charging is concerned that will change as Shell
has announced that all its station will have chargers and BP has
bought a British Electric Highway company, so maybe eventually they
will start it here.
The NRMA is to install chargers along all major highways.
So there is a lot happening, but not much in Australia due to GARO.
Posted by Bazz, Friday, 6 July 2018 1:39:34 PM
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The world's energy situation has utterly changed now that the US has become a net exporter of fossil fuels. Despite Obama's claims that the US couldn't drill its way to energy self-sufficiency, they have indeed done so.

Not only does it mean that world oil prices have been greatly suppressed due to vastly increased non-OPEC supplies, but also OPEC's ability to increase prices by depressing supply has been curtailed because of the US's ability to ramp up fracked supply in response to any rise in price.

While the US was even partly dependent on M-E oil, the world could live in the comfortable notion that it (the US) would use its military to keep oil supply lines open (while duplicitously decrying the use of that military). But the world and particularly China and India can no longer rely on that guarantee that the Straits of Hormuz will be kept open by the US. Under Trump, once Iran has been bought to heel, there is every chance that there will be a general downgrading of US commitments to that part of the world. This is the real China/India/JApanese concerns and the reason for the benign sounding buyers club.

As to EV, well it might eventually pan out if the technology can catch up with the hype. But that's a long way off just now.

But you've gotta love this quote: "as many as 90 percent of Indian drivers were willing to switch to EVs if the government built the necessary charging infrastructure, reduced road taxes, and increased subsidies." So if the government spends gazillions making use of EV easier while reducing taxes for EV while increasing handouts for them, then and only then will these people 'consider' changing. One wonders what's wrong with the other 10%. Didn't they hear the question properly? Struth, you could get 90% of any group to agree to consider trying almost anything if you make the promises lucrative enough and don't worry about the overall costs. I suspect we have a survey from a lobby group here.
Posted by mhaze, Friday, 6 July 2018 2:22:53 PM
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Couple of points. Oil ran out eighteen years ago according to the Greens! If you think cars can run on electricity then prepare for the grid having to cope with an additional fifty per cent load.
Actually there is so much oils and gas available, do not argue just see what the US has done.
I think electric vehicles are the way to go but for goodness sake do not let idiot politicians anywhere near it! NBN courtesy of Conroy and Gillard enough said.
Let the market decide with the help of a couple of huge coal fired power stations and positive action against States who stop fracking. Cheap base load energy and cheap oil that is sitting on sites held by multi nationals? Don't develop and you lose it, fracked from your land you get a generous cut of the action. Ladies and Gentlemen, money talks!
Posted by JBowyer, Friday, 6 July 2018 3:19:27 PM
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I've read credible reports Of electric cars for as low a 7 grand, and with an acceptable commuter rage. With batteries st to get much better and capacitors that'll recharge fully in 30 seconds or. Production runs in excess of a million vehicles PA could even lower the above-stated price.

What is holding the price of oil up, is the prohibition by the world' biggest economy of thorium.

Because this coupled to MSR. Would make the world's cleanest, safest cheapest power.

And cheap enough to allow the pioneer economies, to endlessly sustainably recover all the liquid fuel they could ever need from seawater.

Hardly new or groundbreaking technology. covertly and conveniently suppressed by deliberately dumbed down debate by the knaves, villains and sycophants, who work against us and for, the fossil fuel industry, big nuclear and big Pharma?

All of who have skin in the game and would likely face ruination or a huge downward trend in the profit curve!? If the ban were lifted Imagine electric cars a cheap as 7 grand, couple to reliable, dispatchable power costing less than 2 cents per KwH.

Bob Hawk once said ad I paraphrase, no child living in Australia, need grow up in poverty. And very doable with MSR, thorium and the legislated banning of the middleman profit takers!
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Sunday, 8 July 2018 12:53:26 PM
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A few misconceptions here.
First Mhaze, the US is not self sufficient in oil. It imports about
40% of its consumption, mainly from Africa & a little from the ME.
The oil it exports is mainly from refineries that can take the tight
oil from fracked wells. There is not much future in tight oil as it
has become a Ponzi scheme and Wall St has become twitchy about it.

The problem. Mhaze with EVs in Australia is GARO. I can buy a Leaf
in the UK and ship it here for about $2000 but there are restrictions
that make it a real pain. If I could do that without penalty I would
save about $15K to $20k. No warranty of course.
I might try it again if Hyundai applies GARO.

Oil was never going to "run out" and that was never suggested.
What did happen is that in 2005 crude oil production peaked.
It has been on a plateau ever since except for a very brief spike.
US oil production peaked in 1970. Hit a new peak in 2016 but has since declined.
What has happened is that fracking for tight oil has filled the gap.
It gave us a ten year opportunity to do a permanent fix for the
inevitable decline. People thought that fracking was a permanent fix.
Charging of EVs on a large scale will mainly happen at night after
10pm when the off peak rate applies. How long that lasts is anybodies guess.
The idea of charging a car in 30 seconds is just fanciful.
You would need a crane to lift the charging cable.
Yes coal fired power stations will be needed.
BYW, Turnbull's Snowy scheme relies on cheap offpeak power to pump
uphill, well with a large EV fleet it won't be available.
I bet he never thought of that.
That is why I say take control of the electrical system away from
politicians and give it to the engineers.
Posted by Bazz, Sunday, 8 July 2018 2:17:08 PM
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