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The Forum > Article Comments > A final thought on 2016 Australian warming > Comments

A final thought on 2016 Australian warming : Comments

By Don Aitkin, published 14/3/2017

So any ‘average’ for Australia ignores two different and consistent temperature patterns.

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Yes Don Absolutely right on the money. The earth is actually getting cooler as one would expect as normal during a waning phase of the sun.

The tundras are not melting, there are no new Alaskan summer lakes belching millions of tons a methane skyward and there is just as much summer ice of the coast of alaska as there ever was? And Sydney as expected, had an unusually cool summer? the lowest ever recorded Yes? And all provable as 1+1 = 3.

A final thought? You mean you haven't done that years ago? Or are still able to do that? Maybe the source of that strange burning smell? Or maybe just the coal fired, reverse cycle, air conditioner overloading trying to keep the joint warm?

There are just three kinds of people in this world Don, those that can count and those that can't? Or maybe just two, those who accept the marshalled Data, and those who seek to explain it away or just dismiss it out of hand! You seem to fit the latter category and remain consistent!

By the way, just checked the time piece, and it's 10.30 am. I hope I'm not too early or that I'm the first responder? Given I know how much that gets under your skin.

Y'all have a nice day now, y'hear.
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Tuesday, 14 March 2017 10:36:55 AM
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There is no valid evidence to justify the belief that global warming will do more harm than good.

Richard Tol is one of the foremost climate economists. He's been at the forefront of estimating the impacts of global warming since IPCC's First or Second Assessment reports. Tol (2013) [1], Figure 3 (bottom panel) shows global warming would be net beneficial to at least 4C increase in global mean surface temperature, excluding the projected increase in energy consumption cost. However, it is likely the estimated increase in energy consumption is grossly overestimated.

Agriculture and health are large positives - i.e net benefit for the world.
Sea level rise, storms, ecology, etc are all negligible net costs.

The only large cost increase is due to projected increase in energy consumption. but, as stated above, this may be grossly overestimated.

References:
[1] Tol (2013) was released as a working paper in 2011. It is available free here: http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/sites/default/files/climate_change.pdf
Posted by Peter Lang, Tuesday, 14 March 2017 10:52:45 AM
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Alan B - you'll have to brush up on your sarcasm. I was part way into your post before I realised you disagreed. Anyway, yes, there were a few very hot days in Sydney this summer. Perth was much cooler than usual and the Northern winter was bitter. Variation is not a trend.

Don did not mention it, but the so called Karl paper from NOAA (related to GISS, I think) which tried to explain away the now lengthy temperature pause has hit all sorts of trouble due to its apparent use of "adjustments" to the data, which Don mentions. Last I heard NOAA was busy ignoring congressional committee subpoenas to hand over the data used by the paper, after a whistle blower came forward.
Posted by curmudgeonathome, Tuesday, 14 March 2017 11:01:56 AM
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Don most interesting.
I have always wondered if the concept of global temperature had any real physical meaning. The averaging of raw surface temperatures is meaningless. If measurements at a site extend over decades, then changes in local topography must be considered. Likewise, if sites are moved, but retain the same name. Or perhaps strict protocol is not always observed.
Now, meteorologists are aware of these problems and attempt statistically to correct such variations by a process called “Homogenisation.” Although I suspect “Fudge factors” would be a truer term. Dr Jennifer Marohausy explains these problems at her blog site.
Satellite measurements on the face of it are more reliable, but the record only extends back a little less then forty years. Also, I understand that that there are arguments concerning calibration of the detected radiative fluxes and converting to precise temperature measurement.
The core measurement of the human body is measured per rectum. However, I suspect that a thermometer inserted into the earth’s core would melt.
Posted by anti-green, Tuesday, 14 March 2017 11:10:58 AM
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Just like 'Fake' News , major Political Parties , 'Elites . and political Academics... the Great Unwashed are over "Fake' Global Warming.

It is just another 'Greenie ' ( since the Communists self-destructed) exercise intended to control The Masses.

Frankly , I am no longer interested in its' 'Science'..( what an abused word )...'adjusted Statistics or any other combination of BS.

Some years it's hot some are colder.. the world may get colder... but whatever happens.. this Planet will NOT last for eternity !
Posted by Aspley, Tuesday, 14 March 2017 12:04:39 PM
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There are immutable facts in relation to climate:

a) We need greenhouse gases in the right proportion to survive. CO2 being important in regulating the respiration rate in humans. Earth would be a sphere of ice without greenhouse gases.
b) Since the Industrial Revolution the rate of CO2 and other greenhouse gases have been increasing; for CO2, it has increased from 280 ppm to over 400 ppm currently.
c) Carbon took millions of years to be sequested; we dispose of it very quickly and release CO2.

Those are immutable facts, will be true regardless of political orientation.

A reference to a major insurance body ... Munich Re.

https://www.munichre.com/en/group/focus/climate-change/index.html#sthash.GySQ5BsL.dpuf

Quote:

“The increasing navigability of the Northeast and Northwest Passages (under the RCP8.5 scenario, large portions of the Arctic Ocean will already be mostly ice-free in late summer by the mid-21st-century) will introduce new exposure and hazards in these regions - for shipping and coastal areas (port facilities, industrial plants).”

In 2016, a British yacht sailed the two routes in the one melting season. Also, two ice breakers were able to motor all the way to the North Pole in the same season. In other words, already we are well on the way to reaching the prediction of Munich Re. A few decades ago it was possible to sled over the ice to the North Pole.

Those who have read anything in relation to the IPCC would realise that the RCP8.5 is the worst case scenario discussed; yet, apart from the yacht other ships have already begun to use the fabled passage; a few decades ahead of expectation.

Meanwhile, Anthony Watts from WUWT is publishing articles about how the Arctic sea ice is rebounding.

Here are a couple of matters we apparently do not need to be concerned about if accepting the denier viewpoint:

Loss of thousands of hectares on mangrove forests in the Gulf of Carpentaria....

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/they-died-of-thirst-extreme-conditions-wipe-out-forest-over-1000-kilometres-20170313-gux252.html

Also, further bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef:, BOM states there is a 50/50 chance of an El Nino in 2017.

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/they-died-of-thirst-extreme-conditions-wipe-out-forest-over-1000-kilometres-20170313-gux252.html
Posted by ant, Tuesday, 14 March 2017 2:38:59 PM
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