The new market psychology could be 'let's not frighten the horses'. Some say we are at peak liquid fuel supply now and that the crude oil price will soon hit $US75 a barrel
http://peakenergy.blogspot.com.au/2017/01/hsbc-global-oil-supply-report-september.html
Does that mean petrol in Australia will get to $A2 per litre?

If Joe Public twigs to the finiteness of oil then electric cars look more appealing hence the under-reaction to oil supply incidents. I think we'll start to panic in the 2020s when oil depletion can't be denied.

As long as some folk have valves they can open or close and act as a covertly colluding cartel? This market manipulation and the disastrous economic consequences will continue!

The price is manipulated upwards and hey presto, the multi million dollar rigs once again dominate the sky line? Then the valves are reopened and lots of little folk lose their shirts/retirement nest eggs! On and on!

Mr Trump? Change? In your dreams buddy!

And or, not until our energy policy includes the ultra rapid development of cheaper than coal, abundant Thorium!

Until then enjoy the roller coaster ride, courtesy of OPEC!

Ah well, like frogs being very slowly brought to the boil, poor dumb fools, never ever learn!

I'd imagine if frogs could be ever taught to read and read history? Unlikely as that may be! They'd still not learn the lessons of history or decide their own fate, via some semblance of self determination!?

Croak, croak, croak, ah, hot springs, warm and comfortable isn't it George? George! Oh sh!t, Gee or!
Alan B.

The main reason for the continued 'problems' over oil prices is that the supply of oil and (most importantly) its substitutes shows no sign of declining. Increase the supply and the price falls although the usual dolts will see conspiracy at every turn (Alan B.!!).

The technology to recover oil resources continues to advance and as it does, known but unrecoverable reserves become recoverable and new reserves are discovered. So the timing for the much touted 'peak oil' continues to recede into the future. The imminent exhaustion of oil reserves has been predicted for over a century and those propounding it now are no more correct than those who propounded it way back when.

The major game-changer here is fracking. Despite the Obamessiah's antipathy to the technology, legal protection built into the USA's DNA have allowed the fracking industry to thrive. It is now clear that the Saudi attempt to kill it off by depressing prices has utterly failed. Last month, for the first time in 60 years, the US became a net exporter of Natural Gas.

Under the new open-for-business presidency, look to the US to even more aggressively access its resources and to become a net exporter of all forms of energy to the dismay of its rivals in the Middle East and Russia.

Even cheaper energy will underpin the US manufacturing recovery. In the end this will force Europe (mainly Germany) to have a second and third look at its industry destroying energy policies. Ultimately even Australia will be forced to adopt a degree of sanity in regards to accessing its shale-bound bounty although, as per usual, this will be done too late and in the face of opposition from those who have insulated themselves from economic reality.

Just a bit of housekeeping:

As sure as night follows day, any thread that even tangentially mentions energy will have Alan B. popping in to tout his thorium fantasies.

Again I point out that there is no such thing as a commercial thorium reactor so saying it is a solution to whatever energy problem may arise is tantamount to saying that the solution to traffic congestion is the rapid deployment of flying cars. Again, thorium may work (only may) but if the problems with the technology are resolved (and that's a big if) it won't be available for at least a couple of decades.

Oh, and while we're debunking urban myths, frogs don't die in a slowly heating pot. They do indeed escape long before the water becomes dangerous. But the story is just too good to let the facts get in the way.

mhaze: you and any of the usual cloud dwelling idiots persuaded by your delusional grandiose and often abusive control freak rethoric; need to get on U tube and google tech talks, to see who is living in fantasy land?

Take a butchers, I dare you! If you want to risk your house? I'm up for it!

And thank you very much for the priceless opportunity you've provided me to persuade a few more folk to find their own facts/do their own critical thinking! And check out Kirk Sorensen! It's not rocket science!

If this stuff ever gets out, your oil shares will be virtually worthless! And our worthless gutless do nothing pollies, will be backed into a corner they'll never ever get out of, unless they start to do the bidding of the voters! As opposed to? He who must be Obied?
Alan B.

Oh that is not very nice of you mhaze, shooting down that nice myth about frogs.

Not much harder than shooting down the one about CO2 causing run away global warming.

Bet there will still be large numbers who will cling to the myths, rather than face the truth.

The only myth shot down here in flames, Has old mate, is the one about your ability as an independent critical thinker, always willing to thoroughly research a subject and the substantiated facts, before leaping to a warm and comfortable, conformation bias based conclusion?

And while you'll are getting personal? It's not hard to see why you are very much a used to be (the older I get, the better I was, Hasbeen) with a record of business failure on business failure?

Ah yes I know, it was always someone else's fault?

You'll have a nice day now y'hear.
Alan B.

Alan B,

I know you'd prefer it not to be so and will ignore all data that doesn't confirm your hopes so all I can do is repeat an earlier post when you opined that searching YouTube was the be-all and end-all of academic inquiry...

"I understand that you've totally bought the hype around thorium and that mere reality doesn't factor into your calculations. But the reality is that there are no, (repeat NO), commercial thorium reactors around that can be installed now to satisfy your fantasies.

I've shown you this before but since it doesn't fit your memes, you've continually ignored it.

Here is what the gentleman in charge of the Chinese thorium research team (Professor Li) says about the development of a viable commercial thorium reactor:

"We are still in the dark about the physical and chemical nature of thorium in many ways. There are so many problems to deal with but so little time".

The Chinese hope (and its just a hope) to have a demonstration plant running by 2024, if the myriad problems can be resolved.

The head of the Bureau of Major Research and Development Programmes of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has also opined:

* that one of the technical difficulties is that the molten salt produces highly corrosive chemicals such as fluoride that could damage the reactor

* that the power plant would also have to operate at extremely high temperatures, raising concerns about safety

* that researchers have limited knowledge of how to use thorium

Since the Chinese are a the forefront of thorium reactor research, I'm guessing they know a little about the subject. But they clearly don't have your extensive YouTube based research to fall back on.

Thorium might work and it might be the go-to technology in a generation or two. But shouting that the only thing holding it back is venal pollies is the most naive of notions."

Someone who has done so little research that they still believe in the CO2 generated global warming scam, you sure can shoot your mouth off old boy.

Mhaze, Peak crude oil occurred way back in November 2005 at which
time it went onto a plateau for some years. According to HSBC it is now
declining at 5% to 7%. That strikes me as being a bit too high.
I would have thought around 3% as that seems typical of normal wells.

The US is nowhere near being an exporter as they import around 45% of
their consumption. They do export some products or some oils for
special reasons. Their consumption is about 20Mbd.
Natural gas of course is a different matter.

The rig count is still way down. It is now around 500 to 600, have
not seen figures this week. January 2015 it was 1600 operating rigs.
So you can see it has a loonngg way to go to get back there.

The cessation by the major companies in search and development is the
big worry. The time between search and production is about 5 years.
That means in three or four years there will be almost NO new oil.
At that time each barrel burned will reduce available oil by one barrel.