Shadow,

I never claimed all costs of renewables were illusory. But most of the hidden costs of renewables that Peter Lang referred to are illusory, while the hidden costs of coal are real and all too frequently ignored.

Considering how many pylons were blown down in the September 28 storm, I think the claim that it's "well within planning limits" is dubious. And all that happened on the "zero wind day" was a rise in the wholesale price of electricity for a few hours, as power generation companies took advantage of an opportunity to bid high. Such opportunities were common before wind turbines made them rare.

Neither Victoria nor SA are likely to be in much trouble when the wind stops. SA has plenty of gas fired generators. Victoria has gas, hydro, a connection to Tasmania and multiple connections to NSW. Plus of course the two connections to SA, which could be very valuable as it isn't usually calm in both states at once.

Actually I can see a real advantage of this shutdown.

Obviously both South Australia & Victoria will suffer severe disruption to their power supply, we could even have the southern part of Oz as dark as north Korea on a regular basis.

As this will mainly affect the 2 southern rust bucket states, this is not too important. However it should finally wake up the population of NSW, Queensland & WA, causing then to bring enough pressure on the ratbag politicians in those states to not follow the lemmings over the cliff of alternate power generation.

Now that we can see the Europeans, particularly Germany, running away from windmills just as fast as their little legs can carry them, it can only be to buy ratbag fringe votes that leads our pollies to keep building the things.

When our Labor government has proven they can't run a hospital pay system, or more recently a railway, the last thing we need is for them to try to develop a new power system. The coming catastrophe in SA & Vic should stop this stupidity from spreading too far north.

Perhaps Tasmania is lucky to have suffered their recent failure of the Bass Straight link, as it has forced them to improve their planning, & buy some diesel back up. It might be the only bright night-time dot in a very dark areas, south of the NSW border.

A delicious thought. The ABC, in Vic & SA will have to buy back up diesel generators, if they wish to keep the global warming propaganda flow going. Now that is hilariously. It would be the first time in recent history that they spent any of that billion of ours on anything useful.

Aidan, you are a dreamer.

The intermittency of renewables (wind and solar) causes supply reliability to decline with increasing reliance on renewable energy. Statewide blackouts were completely unheard of when there was 100% reliance on fossil fuels. However, SA now has phased out all coal power stations, and relies partly on gas. But on 28 September, not even the gas power station could be relied on to produce any power.

Wind turbines are ineffective in the absence of wind, and -- as we saw on 28 September – have to be closed down when the wind is too strong, hardly a freakish event.

Sadly, the SA politicians are also in dreamland. They too believe fancifully that the “freak series of events” would not be repeated, and that Victoria, and eventually NSW, would be good neighbours and allow SA to draw power from them.

If the SA pollies continue to be unrealistic in their thinking, not only would new industries not be attracted to SA, but the existing ones would go elsewhere.

Aidan, go back to dreamland.

Raycom,

"The intermittency of renewables (wind and solar) causes supply reliability to decline with increasing reliance on renewable energy."
False. Supply reliability is increasing.

"Statewide blackouts were completely unheard of when there was 100% reliance on fossil fuels."
True but misleading – firstly because there has only ever been one statewide blackout so it's far too small a sample size to draw any statistical conclusions, and secondly because IIRC there were statewide brownouts in early 2001 when there was 100% reliance on fossil fuels.

"However, SA now has phased out all coal power stations, and relies partly on gas."
SA has always relied largely on gas.

"But on 28 September, not even the gas power station could be relied on to produce any power."
There were unforeseen technical problems. With hindsight they should have been foreseen. Now that we're aware of the circumstances that can cause a shutdown, it's quite easy to prevent it happening again even as we become more reliant on renewables.

"Wind turbines are ineffective in the absence of wind, and -- as we saw on 28 September – have to be closed down when the wind is too strong, hardly a freakish event."
But that was NOT what we saw on 28 September. What we saw were transmission lines blown down. The wind turbines were shut down not because it was too windy for them, but because the wind had caused power line failure. The problem was that they were shut down too abruptly (solution: next time shut them down more slowly) and the system couldn't cope with that (solution: upgrade it so it can cope).

Aidan,

Two incidents highlighted the unreliability of renewables in SA, firstly was the zero wind day, which at peak demand saw SA paying record prices for power and the second was when all the wind turbines tripped due to faults on the lines (while the gas generators rode through the faults and only tripped after the interconnector tripped.)

The closure of Hazelwood is a problem for renewables, as SA and Vic are neighbours, a very low wind in one state is likely to be accompanied by a low or very low wind in the other.

Shadow,
Far from highlighting the unreliability of renewables, your two examples highlight the extraordinary lengths to which you try to stretch the truth in order to fit your own predetermined conclusions!

The zero wind day saw SA still able to meet demand despite the lack of wind power. It's strong evidence of the reliability of SA's power supply.

And in the September 28 incident, four wind farms reduced their output and then (seven seconds later) another two of SA's wind farms tripped because of multiple transmission line failures. The gas generators (most of which are in the Adelaide area) AND SEVERAL OTHER WIND FARMS rode through the faults and only tripped after the interconnector tripped.

Apart from slowing the response of wind farms to damaged powerlines, I can think of three possible ways of avoiding the interconnector tripping: a faster load shedding response, maintain frequency at the expense of voltage, or add a bit of short term storage capacity. I'd guess the latter (in the form of asynchronous flywheels) is the best solution, but I'm civil not electrical.

Just because SA and Victoria share a border doesn't mean they share the same weather in most of the state! If you look at http://www.nem-watch.info/widgets/RenewEconomy/ over a few days, you'll see a very low wind in one state is UNLIKELY to be accompanied by a low or very low wind in the other. And importantly, Victoria has hydro power and high capacity interstate connections, so supply should be easy to maintain even in those rare exceptions.