The closure of hazelwood by Engie will reduce generation capacity in Vic by 25% and push up the wholesale price of electricity by about 10%. Alcoa's smelter that uses about 10% of Vic's power, and which is already losing money is certain to close costing more jobs.

Victoria, as the backup power supplier to South Australia,will now be a net importer of energy, and as it is also reliant on wind power, there is the very real probability is that a windless day will see Victoria importing very expensive power to meet its own needs and being unable to supply SA.

The only real winner in this is Engie, who by owning much of the rest of Vic's generation, will see its profits jump by about $400m p.a.

I would like to know how Hazelwood is supposed to be producing 25 percent of the Latrobe Valley's power. It might have been once upon a time when it was running to full capacity, but lately there has only been smoke coming from two of the eight stacks, so methinks someone is fiddling the figures. Can anyone out there give us the true figure?

David

Did I hear Josh Frydenberg suggest on ABC that more power disruptions may be expected as we transition into renewables, or some such comment.

That's an understatement. Looks like he's drinking the green Kool-Aid too.
How far up this dead-end road must we travel before it's obvious that we're lost?

ttbn,

I don't have the costs to hand, which is why my original response to you was a question rather than a direct rebuttal.

And "fourth world" means parts of first world countries that have third world living standards. Some of Australia's remote Aboriginal communities are the classic example.

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Peter Lang,

“If "wind is cheaper" than coal, why are we having to subsidise it by $90/MWh?”
AIUIf we're not. Where did you get that figure from?

“Why are the costs of the grid sky rocketing?”
It's mainly the result of poor regulation. Also it came off a low base, as the utilities sweated their assets in the 1990s.

“Why aren't all the hidden costs that should be attributable to weather-dependent renewables included in their cost?”
Because we're not starting from scratch, so most of those costs are illusory.

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Raycom,

The statewide blackout of September 28 was the result of a freak series of events, so stop dishonestly treating it as if it were an intrinsic problem with renewable energy! Procedures to prevent a recurrence can be implemented fairly easily, and I expect there will also be hardware installed to ensure it can never happen again. Meanwhile the long term trend is for a more reliable power supply in SA. Supply was at its most unreliable around the turn of the millennium, and has been steadily improving since.

SA has the generating capacity to meet its own needs, and there's also plenty of power available through the interconnector even without Hazelwood. Your scaremongering is illogical.

Aidan,

The costs of renewables are not illusory, they are being paid by households and businesses today, and are putting pressure on households and businesses.

I also think that two episodes recently, ie the 50yr storm (which is well within planning limits) and the zero wind day in both cases wind power dropped to showed that SA clearly is at risk with their high % of renewables. Now that Hazelwood is closing and Victoria is becoming a net importer of power, both states will be in deep trouble when the wind stops.

The "costs" of renewables are largely the product of paying people to do needful things...