My instincts agree...Turnbull is more problem than solution. Abbott was a disappointment. Abbotts attempt at a Putin look alike failed!

Meanwhile shorten has not a shread of credibility,after his performance in the recent union inquiry: Caught red handed, ripping off low wage earning cleaners of millions, and a compliant Labour Party that fails to recognise this low act as a problem!

The Greens incessant fixation on marrying homosexuals, overtakes all environmental concerns, and have as much credibility as Green Peace!

The minor parties? Big Party look-alike, when policy is compared!

Love your description of voting through gritted teeth, right on!

Abbott would have been a shoe in if they'd kept him as PM, let's face it, policies don't matter to the voters, only popularity, dash and charisma, which Tones has in spades.

Well, doesn't that say it all? And, come in spinner.

Of course Malcom should be given a fair go, a chance to put his stamp of authority on the party with a convincing win! And that would be assisted by bold vision, courage of conviction and less control!?

Instead we see a barrister arguing for a defendant he knows is guilty?

Even so, he managed to include the (red flag) never ever terminology; to warn those with still functioning cerebellar cortexes, that in its heart of hearts the coalition wants to privatize (Americanize) public medicine? Leaving a means tested medicare to function,, as it should, as charity health care for the needy and impoverished bewildered?

And because we can and we must, leave within our means!

Bill Shorten has completely missed the boat here with (we've seen it all before) scare campaigns. And the bold vision the like of we last saw when Curtain and Chiefly lit that light on the hill.

Nobody but nobody on that side of (divisive them and us) politics has that sort of bold yet nonetheless pragmatic future vision. The sort of future vision that created the snowy mountains scheme; and yes, it could have been done much better and would have been if a turbine or two were included as part of the snowy's increased outfall?

That said and given the level of control and tight rein seemingly applied on Malcolm? Don't be too surprised if a narrow coalition win results in a post election spill and another harder, further right candidate and Abbott devotee, is installed in his place!?

He seems to be wheeled out as a brain along with myriad non core promises as a figurehead to get the election in the bag, which seems to be all that matters?
Alan B.

It seems that the Coalition will be returned, but it is to be hoped that Turnbull is rolled ASAP. He should be given a dose of what he gave Abbott if the Coalition is to regain respect.

The author has added impressive analysis - so going beyond larger pollsters.

I assume the poll was counted before the Brexit Vote so the actual poll couldn't take account of:

- the lessons from Brexit, or

- Brexit favouring Turnbull's call for no-change stability.

So I'll take the tack that the Brexit Leave scare has had a late impact on Australian voters that has been under-estimated by the Australian parties and Antony Green like election "experts".

My theory is that force for stability Turnbull (Lib-Nat Coalition) will do better than expected in the Senate and House.
- Though not as good as 2013 in the House.

"not as good as 2013 in the House." will give Abbott and Rightwing forces the green light to actively destabilise Turnbull after the Election.

Interesting...in my electorate, I'll be given the choice of two candidates in the HoR, labor and National Party. So there is an informal vote.
In the Senate election, is where I'll pay back!