My instincts agree...Turnbull is more problem than solution. Abbott was a disappointment. Abbotts attempt at a Putin look alike failed!

Meanwhile shorten has not a shread of credibility,after his performance in the recent union inquiry: Caught red handed, ripping off low wage earning cleaners of millions, and a compliant Labour Party that fails to recognise this low act as a problem!

The Greens incessant fixation on marrying homosexuals, overtakes all environmental concerns, and have as much credibility as Green Peace!

The minor parties? Big Party look-alike, when policy is compared!

Love your description of voting through gritted teeth, right on!

Abbott would have been a shoe in if they'd kept him as PM, let's face it, policies don't matter to the voters, only popularity, dash and charisma, which Tones has in spades.

Well, doesn't that say it all? And, come in spinner.

Of course Malcom should be given a fair go, a chance to put his stamp of authority on the party with a convincing win! And that would be assisted by bold vision, courage of conviction and less control!?

Instead we see a barrister arguing for a defendant he knows is guilty?

Even so, he managed to include the (red flag) never ever terminology; to warn those with still functioning cerebellar cortexes, that in its heart of hearts the coalition wants to privatize (Americanize) public medicine? Leaving a means tested medicare to function,, as it should, as charity health care for the needy and impoverished bewildered?

And because we can and we must, leave within our means!

Bill Shorten has completely missed the boat here with (we've seen it all before) scare campaigns. And the bold vision the like of we last saw when Curtain and Chiefly lit that light on the hill.

Nobody but nobody on that side of (divisive them and us) politics has that sort of bold yet nonetheless pragmatic future vision. The sort of future vision that created the snowy mountains scheme; and yes, it could have been done much better and would have been if a turbine or two were included as part of the snowy's increased outfall?

That said and given the level of control and tight rein seemingly applied on Malcolm? Don't be too surprised if a narrow coalition win results in a post election spill and another harder, further right candidate and Abbott devotee, is installed in his place!?

He seems to be wheeled out as a brain along with myriad non core promises as a figurehead to get the election in the bag, which seems to be all that matters?
Alan B.

It seems that the Coalition will be returned, but it is to be hoped that Turnbull is rolled ASAP. He should be given a dose of what he gave Abbott if the Coalition is to regain respect.

The author has added impressive analysis - so going beyond larger pollsters.

I assume the poll was counted before the Brexit Vote so the actual poll couldn't take account of:

- the lessons from Brexit, or

- Brexit favouring Turnbull's call for no-change stability.

So I'll take the tack that the Brexit Leave scare has had a late impact on Australian voters that has been under-estimated by the Australian parties and Antony Green like election "experts".

My theory is that force for stability Turnbull (Lib-Nat Coalition) will do better than expected in the Senate and House.
- Though not as good as 2013 in the House.

"not as good as 2013 in the House." will give Abbott and Rightwing forces the green light to actively destabilise Turnbull after the Election.

Interesting...in my electorate, I'll be given the choice of two candidates in the HoR, labor and National Party. So there is an informal vote.
In the Senate election, is where I'll pay back!

Pete, I'm pretty politically active and literally nobody is talking about the Brexit on social media or in real life; save for the odd expat Pom, can anyone explain to me why it matters?

Hi Jay

Brexit has been all over Australia's Mainstream Media since the shock result of Friday 24 June that Britain is leaving the European Union (EU). Front page news in The Australian etc for days. Brexit has dominated serious Australian TV News since Friday 24 June.

For OLO commenters probably the main Brexit issue are:

- We have the right to control our own borders rather than "refugee" rights reps like the UN, and Trojan Horse Labor Left and Greens dictating policy. For the UK the EU was dictating loose border policies. Basically we should vote LNP Coalition or further to the Right.

- the shock of Brexit to world trade may impact on the Australian economy in the long term.

Explaining the importance of Brexit to Australia is a bit like explaining the GFC's 2009 impact, this Kiwi summary (with a good video) is perhaps the most enlightening summary:

http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/kpmg-early-edition/audio/donna-demaio-brexit-at-forefront-of-australian-election/

Cheers

Pete

"Voters are very unenthusiastic about the choice on offer."

A fine year for minor parties. Me, I'm voting Sex Party. They are promising to legalise cannabis.

, a perception that it has been made more difficult for them to do this might result in them trying even harder to ensure their vote doesn’t flow to a major'

Having voted, it is fun no need to preference the majors at all.

The most effective advert that I have seen is the Howard Lied, somebody lied, why not this mob.

The only effective advert that I have seen, and I used to be in the game.

//A fine year for minor parties. Me, I'm voting Sex Party. They are promising to legalise cannabis.//

You might also like to check out the HEMP (Help End Marijuana Prohibition) Party:

https://australianhempparty.com/

And Drug Law Reform Australia:

http://www.druglawreform.com.au/

diver dan,

Are you sure you've only got two lower house candidates in your seat? I thought the Greens and Family First were running everywhere.

I know both major parties are a great disappointment, both basing their advertising campaigns around lies about their opponents' policies rather than anything positive or even true. But I urge you not to spoil your ballot. If you look beyond the lies and spin, Labor have some clear advantages: they're not going to waste money on FTTN, and their economic plan is more sensible and more achievable. And if the polls are anything to go by, they're less likely to achieve the outright majority that neither party deserves.

Like labours proposed royal commission into the finance industry
Prefer their position regards education Medicare and infrastructure
Don't like labours presumption re gay marriage
Don't like the coalitions do nothing minimalism
Don't like the coalitions hardline to refugees
Despise both of their USA puppet foreign policy
Infact their both useless incompetents
Might just draw a dick fish on my ballot paper

//Infact their both useless incompetents
Might just draw a dick fish on my ballot paper//

You could always vote for a minor party instead of the majors. If enough people do it we won't have to put up with Liberal or Labor.

The majors will still be the government. Rightly so because there needs to be broadly set, comprehensive policy not narrow sectional interests.

Choose the wrong'un minor party, which is the treacherous headline-hunting, totalitarian Greens and the Parliament becomes unworkable.

A damned pity that the Greens swung to red'n'pink social engineering years ago. But there is no going back from that. It always was flakey, attracting serial protesters who get their jollies from their 'power' of confrontation and disruption. -Reversed authoritarianism, nothing constructive or good.

Richard di Natale has to take control, set a new direction. He is confronted by factions who prefer the power of protest and disruption though. Which is to be expected in a protest party.

In view of the Election Result (more Hung than an Elephant on Viagra) it would be interesting to dissect:

- what predictions Graham made in the article,

- how accurately his polling numbers reflected the actual voting trends/results counted last night

Pete

All overtaken by the underestimated effects of a negative campaign I'd say.

A statesman might have walked it in, but would their colleagues have let him/her?

The campaign saw politicians and the media at their worst. Or is that worst now the usual to be expected?

The LNP really needs to spruce up some REAL civics education in schools. The problems go back to that. A bit of logic and philosophy wouldn't go astray either.

It is not good enough to oppose leftist skews in education, the LNP has to provide the reasonable alternative.

The LNP has never had the awareness of their opponents that young people vote soon and often.

Hi onthebeach

Yes I don't think Turnbull message was at all fresh and convincing. Rather he was as tentative, negative and unconvincing as the tax NON-policies that he attempted and failed to fly since the beginning of 2016.

Turnbull tried and failed in his strategy of a long election campaign that would expunge this tax NON-policy record.

_______________________________________________________________

Looking at Graham's predictions for the House of Reps results (so far). It being too early to analyse Senate results.

The most accurate portion of Graham's analysis seems to be.

"There are not enough first and second preference votes between [Labor] and the Greens to quite make up 50% +1 of the electorate. Like Turnbull [Labor] also need non-Greens minor party votes.

...So it is unsure who will win in the House of Representatives,...

The LNP's failure to keep seats in the House also supports Graham's prediction, that:

"It is possible that, after having gone to all the trouble of having a double-dissolution to be able to pass two bills establishing an Australian Building and Construction Commission, a joint sitting will not provide the numbers that a Turnbull government needs to get them through."