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The Forum > Article Comments > Elephant in the greenhouse part II > Comments

Elephant in the greenhouse part II : Comments

By Michael Kile, published 4/12/2015

The current world population of 7.3 billion is increasing by 83 million a year. It will reach 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100.

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Joe, I admire your optimism but there is a large grey animal, one with a trunk, standing in the middle of your progressive world, his two part name is "Peak Debt".

Our western, so called, industrial economy is about to collapse. The only thing keeping it going is more credit (as debt) issued by central banks attempting to boost economies that are well beyond saving.

All fiat money systems failed in the end, history is a clear demonstrator of this fact.

In the U.S. There are 93 million people unemployed or under employed, despite what the MSM and government statistics will tell you. In Australia our genuine unemployment rate is close to 11% and growing, not including real youth unemployment which is running at around 19%. Pretty sobering stats when you think about it.

We may not have run out of rocks, whale oil, conventional oil or coal but all the low hanging fruit is well and truly gone.

By my estimate, and despite your optimism, I see a massive global recession in 2016, with little hope of a recovery and an ongoing gradual decline in living standards, global retraction, further conflicts over resources and an eventually decline in population.

History will eventually prove one of us right!
Posted by Geoff of Perth, Sunday, 6 December 2015 10:33:33 PM
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Hi Geoff,

Optimistic ? That's your interpretation ? Yes, I suppose it could be so, but my point was that population growth is not the boogy-man many end-of-times people think: once the current civilizational conflicts engendered by the clash of cultural stasis and technological growth, are resolved, some time this century, and once Africa is geared up to meet its human potential - in other words, once genuine globalisation/internationalisation has been freed up, then women will seize educational opportunities, birth-rates will plummet and population growth will cease, except for the simple fact that more people will grow older as living standards around the world improve.

As an internationalist, I welcome the prospect of Africa - one of the largest continents after all - having a population two or three times its present size, of an Africa as a powerhouse of the world, at the same time as Europe's population stabilises at a bit less than its current population. Yeah, all up, ten billion is about right.

Running out of resources ? One aspect of technological development is improvements in discovery technology, extraction technology, refinement technology. If anything, the 21st century will have a constant problem of an over-supply of resources, so downward pressure on prices, and so the reliance by any country on its natural resources may be a huge mistake.

But by 2100, we could running desperately short of one natural product: CO2.

Joe
Posted by Loudmouth, Monday, 7 December 2015 8:37:57 AM
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Told you all its a global depopulation agenda while putting funds into the pockets of the elite... Its a racket.

Just to be sure though I might go down to the shoreline of where I live in the next few days to check on the sea levels to make sure they haven't risen.

I'm willing to bet they are in the same place they've always been.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Monday, 7 December 2015 9:22:14 AM
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Hi AC,

Measuring the shoreline is a very complicated business. For example, take the effects of plate tectonics: the Australian Plate is moving north under the Pacific Plate, so it is dipping on its northern edge and rising on its southern edge. Hence those bloody great cliffs around the Great Australian Bight. The Bengal Plate is tilting down to the east, rising in the west. Hence, flooding in the Brahmaputra delta, i.e. the Bangla Desh shoreline. Hence Al Gore's perception of sea-level rise.

Areas of the world which were under a couple of kilometres of ice during the Ice Age are still slowly rising, sort of on the rebound. Hence the perception of sea-level rise.

Atolls sink. People build on atolls closer and closer to the water, and take more and more ground-water out. So atolls sink faster. Hence the perception of sea-level rise.

Build a dam and, downstream, the river deltas don't get the silt any more. So the sea floods in on them. Hence, the Nile Delta. Hence the perception of sea-level rise.

Remove the protective island barriers from a shoreline and hey presto ! floods. Hence New Orleans. Hence the perception of sea-level rise.

So where might any definitive measurement be taken ? Off the Pilbara coast ? After all, it's a very seismically stable area. Along the entire shoreline of Brazil ? Somalia ? Tropical coasts with low seismic activity ?

Cheers,

Joe
Posted by Loudmouth, Monday, 7 December 2015 10:46:11 AM
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Loudmouth,

"Areas of the world which were under a couple of kilometres of ice during the Ice Age are still slowly rising, sort of on the rebound. Hence the perception of sea-level rise."

Its called Glacial Rebound. But it gives the appearance of FALLING sea levels since the land is rising. Adjustments are made for this but there is significant dispute over the accuracy of those adjustments.

"Atolls sink".
They also rise but we are supposed to not notice this since it upsets our Pacific Island friends.
https://www.newscientist.com//article/dn27639-small-atoll-islands-may-grow-not-sink-as-sea-levels-rise#.VXI6nzcw-id

Geoff,
"Our western, so called, industrial economy is about to collapse."
That's easy to say. It must be since people have been predicting the end of the capitalist economy since at least "Das Capital".
It never seems to quite happen but the doomsayers never tire of making the next prediction. I suspect your's will suffer a similar fate but well discuss it this time next year.

"All fiat money systems failed in the end, history is a clear demonstrator of this fact."
Well yes and no. Most that have existed no longer exist. But that is usually because their supporting political structure failed, not the currency. Rome didn't fall because the denarius failed, the denarius failed because Rome fell.

"There are 93 million people unemployed or under employed"
That is simply wrong. I don't know whether you misunderstood the data or read someone who misunderstood the data but its just wrong. There are 93 million USians over the age of 16 who don't participate in the workforce. There are 250,080,000 people over 16yrs old. Of those 62.7% are employed or want to be employed. The rest (93million) aren't employed and aren't trying to get employment. They include retirees, stay at home mums, students etc.

Still big scary numbers often work when you're trying to support an inherently unbelievable story
Posted by mhaze, Monday, 7 December 2015 2:30:21 PM
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How can carbonic acid destroy calcium based coral while calcium based algae is increasing?

http://ocean.nationalgeographic.com/ocean/explore/pristine-seas/critical-issues-ocean-acidification/

and

http://www.scienceworldreport.com/articles/33767/20151128/rising-carbon-dioxide-causes-rapid-growth-coccolithophores-ocean.htm
Posted by JF Aus, Monday, 7 December 2015 7:39:27 PM
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