I got as far as
"For example, a recent peer reviewed paper estimating ultimately recoverable resources of fossil fuel resources, including unconventional, found that total fossil fuel supplies are likely to peak around 2025, with the only uncertainty being how fast they decline thereafter."

Then I tried looking at the paper. I'm not paying $37 for nonsense but the idea of a fossil fuel peak has been debunked so often that I don't think there is any need to look at it. The peak oil story is passed its use by date and, in any case, only ever applied to easy-lift oil (oil in conventional reservoirs), not total oil supplies.

As for a coal peak Bwwwwhahahaha! With coal prices having collapsed you should tell that to the coal industry people. They need a good laugh. However, I'm confused over whether this article refers to a production peak (certainly possible in the near term) with an actual supply peak (completely impossible).

The rest of the article is not worth critiquing.

I think the article's conclusions are probably correct. Sure we have a lot of coal, oil and gas in the ground but it is getting harder to extract due to political opposition or greater cost with or without carbon taxes. At some point it will become unaffordable, that is we won't have enough income to pay the production cost. Efficiency gains will be swamped by population growth. Trouble is fossil fuels provide over 80% of our electricity, transport and heat.

CSIRO predicts happy times for decades. I suspect we will be miserable and anxious by 2050. If you don't see the signs you must be on something.

Actually Taswegion, sorry but no - the trends are pointing in the opposite direct. Cost of production has been falling, although we are a ways behind other countries. What you say is correct to a point but there are offsetting factors mostly better productivity, including improving technology, and project size. One of the notable trends of current low coal prices is that a couple of low cost producers (in WA) are trying push aside higher cost producers - cut them out of the market - so they'll be better placed when p;rices turn up.

Its clear that neither the author of the article or CSIRO has any real idea how all this works.

Funny how just in today's news Leigh Ck coalfield shut down due to depletion. Then BP was knocked back for drilling in the Great Australian Bight. A very difficult and costly place to drill perhaps a sign of desperation. But since things are getting easier I guess we'll be OK years from now.

Jonathon

"In other words this type of society needs to be replaced (not reformed) with utterly new/different social order – in both rich and poor countries – based on i.e. intense localism, new settlement geography, new economies and governance systems, and very different cultures – what some describe as a Simpler Way."

Great idea. Would it be voluntary?

Good points Tas.

Curmudgeon (Mark Lawson) you have a vested interest in spruiking the optimistic side of things noting your on-going employment/financial interest in maintaining the status quo, and supporting the corporate agenda.

Conventional oil peaked in 2005, no if's no but's.

Unconventional oil is a different story, we now face peak capacity and storage, the US is now contemplating underground storage in old geological areas.

Tanker shipping storage is at capacity, affecting new production storage and transportation issues.

What Curmudgeon fails to grasp is we are also at Peak Debt, this is driving lower capacity, lower demand and lower prices in energy and other markets.

The fracking US market (oil and gas) is in a debt trap, oil prices will continue to fall, probably into the low $30's making profit at these levels unobtainable, guaranteeing collapse at some point.

Good luck with maintaining any semblance of BAU growth in the economy when the fallout from this occurs.

Sustainable growth is an oxymoron.

Australian growth models by the CSIRO and the MSM are a joke, prepare for peak debt, falling house, commodity and general economic prices, our debt binge is coming home to roost. Poorer and less secure is our future due to ridiculous economic policies enacted since the end of WW2.

"Why we should reject the CSIRO's 'sustainable' growth scenario"

Modern Code Words For Dummies

'Smart' = "We're going to spy on you."
'Sustainable' = "Agenda 21, Global Dictatorial Government and the New World Order"

I might be onto something here, I think I need to expand this list.

"Democracy" = "We're going to sell all your nations assets"
"Equality" = "Minority groups and idiots have a bigger voice"
"Feminism" = "Irrational Illogical women on anti-depressants"

Hi Jardine,

Thanks for question. Yes, the simpler way vision is only possible if it is voluntary - i.e if citizens enthusiastically take up the task up the task of building it in the towns and suburbs where we live. Even if we could win an election on a simpler way platform, state authorities could not impose it from on high...

That said, we are not naive. We don't think ordinary people will embrace these ideas, on a large scale, until the problems (see Geoff's good post) of consumer capitalist society start to dramatically intensify. People will then start to be looking for alternatives, if only (initially) because they need food/employment. Of course crisis will not lead to good communities automatically! The hope is that, by then, there will be lots of good local/cooperative alternatives up and running, and lots of people with the right vision, so that we can rapidly scale up...

You might like to read the following piece by Ted Trainer, addressing some of these issues, to Transition Town activists
http://www.thesimplerway.info/TRANSITIONERS.htm

MrSimplicity

Do you ever doubt whether you know better than everyone else what their thoughts, feelings, preferences and values should be?

The reason why global GDP will triple over coming decades is because almost 2 billion people live in abject poverty in developing countries and another 4 billion seek a standard of living similar to that enjoyed by Australians and most other people living in the developed countries. No politician wanting to be reelected in developing countries will support a lowering of the standard of living of his or her electorate for obvious reasons. So, until developed countries develop the technologies to provide an economically viable low carbon economy to developing countries, we will see continued economic growth for no other reason than people are part of the sustainable growth equation and cannot be ignored for fear or revolution or political upheaval.