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The Forum > Article Comments > Top 12 media myths on oil prices > Comments

Top 12 media myths on oil prices : Comments

By Dan Doyle, published 13/4/2015

In short, oil prices will increase as weekly EIA production numbers begin posting declines as we saw last week. Demand will increase. Inventories will start getting eaten into by midyear.

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The analysis seems to have missed the estimated 1.7 trillion barrel reserves in Edmonton, and new recovery methods that have unlocked it's middle east challenging potential!

For far too long we have allowed rumor mongering merchant bankers, speculating in the billions, to manipulate the energy market, and almost destroying many economies in the process; none more so than an energy importing economy like the USA or most of Europe!

Even so, the USA and to a slightly lessor extent, China, are all but awash with copious NG!

We shouldn't listen to these endless what if speculations, and just crack on developing our own reserves of NG and sweet light crude!

And may have a hydrocarbon reserve of our own to our immediate north to rival/eclipse the entire Middle East!?

And given the increased "ENVIRONMENTAL" activism in this area, many so called activists, many with American or Canadian accents think so too, and are "positively terrified" at the prospect of the world being flooded with cheap fuel?

With many a fortune lost as the first consequence; and the real concern of most of these "FOREIGN ACTIVISTS"?

How about we, just once, put our economy and our national interest first! And wouldn't that make a pleasant change?

And just crack on developing our own resources!

As the Author acknowledges, there are some 800 rigs now lying idle, and I dare say, that includes the roughnecks that used to man them?

And given they need to be moved around as very wide loads and lifted by cranes, eminently suited to conversion to marine purposes/shallow water drilling for conventional oil and NG!

We need to stop thinking like infants who need someone else to do everything for them.

I believe that we have at least 5 billion barrels of sweet light crude in the Townsville trough, and slightly less certain, far more (M.E.rivaling?) a little further out!?

Meaning, we'd hardly be out of pocket, by starting with the Townsville trough, which would likely pay for all the exploration and exploitation!? Nothing REAL prevents us buying both the rigs and missing expertise!
Posted by Rhrosty, Monday, 13 April 2015 11:03:20 AM
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Since the subject of oil prices has resurfaced, as it seems to do every month or so, I thought I would re-post something I wrote last time. Even though it is a re-post it is still very valid.--

I've never understood why so many people are so interested in making predictions about the near term fuel price. The reality is that you can't change what the price is, so don't worry about it. Just accept the fact that the price will change.

The only time that being able to predict the future price becomes important is:
1) when you are thinking about buying a new car, it may be a consideration. However, it shouldn't be the main factor because the extra that you pay in fuel over the life of a car doesn't overwhelm the differences in price due to a car's brand, extra features and life long insurance, service/maintenance costs.
2) if you're in a situation where you buy fuel in very large quantities (1000's of litres) at a time that you use gradually over a longer time (such as a few months as opposed to a week)
3) you trade oil as a commodity or sell it at a servo (I've added this point to the re-post).

-- In summary of the re-post: for the most people, including the vast majority of us here, we have no control over the price of oil. Nor does knowing the price in advance offer to any advantage. So just accept that the price is what it is when you go to the servo and don't worry about it.
Posted by thinkabit, Monday, 13 April 2015 12:06:54 PM
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