I would have thought that it was better to err on the high side so that people were more than adequately prepared. As it turned out, there was still major destruction, but apparently no lives were lost. Had the forecast been for only a category 3 cyclone, the result may well have been different, so I say, "Well done to the BOM" despite what the nitpickers might say.
David

I can understand "erring on the side of caution" before the cyclone hit land, but surely the record should be accurate after the event? Inflating the severity of cyclones does nothing but instill a false sense of security in people. They now believe that a Cat 5 is not as bad as they thought, so the next one forecast will not bring any sense of urgency as a real Cat 5 should.

I must say I agree with the author. I'm by no means an expert, but I noted the same things as she did and was wondering what the bureau was seeing that I wasn't. While I can understand the bureau's fear of media overreaction if the storm turned out to be enormously destructive and they had erred on the low side, the author makes an excellent point about "the boy who cried wolf" effect.

On a more positive note, I thought the emergency services did well and the Premier handled herself well in not going over the top, although I do wonder just what role a politician has in presenting disaster warning information of this type.

Thanks Jennifer

As usual, your articles are timely and logical. The 1918 Mackay cyclone (Central pressure 928 mb) happened within the lifetime of many Australians, and one can be sure larger events will occur within the lifetime of those now living. Science is ill-served to fiddle the figures for whatever reason. Mankind will have to cope with much more than has yet been experienced. We need to diversify our production centres, we need to have a cyclone-resistant port to provide an outlet for the abundant resources of North Queensland. Surely this event where the BOM predictions were consistently inconsistent is a wake-up call for an examination of the vulnerability of our major export ports, and the need to open up a wonderful natural asset, Port Clinton. Cyclone resistant housing and infrastructure needs a prosperous economy for establishment. Yet our punitive tax system and nanny-state policies are roadblocks in the pathway to progress. May I recommend as a starter a check of the website <http://like2percenttax.com.au/>

Whether it is bushfires or cyclones, the authorities have to be exact and honest or the people they have to warn start not trusting the warnings "oh they always get those things wrong" - and that could be disastrous.

Jen's sounding more and more like she trying to get a job on Fox news or world news daily. Facts just don't matter for this lady.

Jen's working on the thin edge, that her better's have better manners than her and will use the proper forums to correct her mistakes and dismiss her ravings