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The Forum > Article Comments > Norway's oil decline accelerating > Comments

Norway's oil decline accelerating : Comments

By Nicholas Cunningham, published 12/12/2014

Since 2001, Norway's oil production has fallen by almost half, from around 3.5 million barrels per day down to about 1.8 or 1.9 million bpd in 2014.

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That's great having nearly a trillion dollars in the wealth fund but if you can't buy a good replacement for oil at any price then it means little. I note Norway is buying a lot of electric cars that still leaves planes and trucks to be fuelled somehow. I suspect there will be a big oil price rebound but as the volume shrinks the revenue will still decline. Norway, Nauru perhaps Australia may all be nations that had resources but that wealth declined.
Posted by Taswegian, Friday, 12 December 2014 9:02:44 AM
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What happened to all the media talk of Peak Oil? I seem to recall that a few years ago the media were full of dire predictions that the world had reached peak Oil. Are we now over the hump?
Posted by anti-green, Friday, 12 December 2014 11:58:44 AM
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AG Peak Oil never went anywhere it just has its head down because of the irrational optimism over US fracking, itself expected to peak by 2018. Peak crude oil was some years ago and the newer liquid fuels like ethanol, tar sands and gas condensate don't have as much net energy. See the Peak Oil Notes on the Resilence org website or
http://www.peakoil.net/
Posted by Taswegian, Friday, 12 December 2014 12:10:13 PM
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This useful article makes a number of important points that have resonance for Australia. Perhaps the most important point is that Norway recognised very early on that their North Sea oil was a finite resource and that it would run out sooner or later. Hence the decision, inter alia, to put the bulk of the revenue into a sovereign wealth fund to fusion against the consequences of the inevitable decline in income.

This was coupled with a number of other decisions, including limiting spending based on the accumulated wealth to minimise inflation, and to impose a high level of tax on the profits generated by utilisation of resources. Effectively, Australia has done none of this. It is a pattern repeated from the past when the great wool boom was similarly squandered.

There are a number of reasons for this, but perhaps the author of The Lucky country put his finger on it best when he said that Australia was a lucky country, run by third rate politicians who share its luck.
Posted by James O'Neill, Friday, 12 December 2014 12:10:31 PM
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Perhaps we could encourage the Norwegians to sail their currently unemployed, unused rigs here!
And then as minor partners help us exploit our own currently locked away, but still economic offshore oil resources!

And given they're as massive as predicted by some of the leading industry analysts, not just save their own economic bacon, but prosper ours and us as well!

The D.T.E. Norwegians are just about pragmatic enough to go for it!
As opposed to having several billion dollar rigs, their crews and enviable expertise idling at the national government expense; and all but guaranteed to continue indefinitely, by the fact that their reserve has already well and truly traversed peak oil!

And if they can find a better vehicle, [seeds of advantage deep in the throes of disadvantage,] for their large sovereign fund and their idling rigs, than in ensuring their own enduring low cost energy surety of supply; along with additional annual earnings in the billions, I'd like to know what it is?

Or should we wait until the week's worth of petroleum reserves we currently have, are down from a week's worth to just a couple of days?
What would we run our brand new diesel powered Japanese subs, opps, canoes on then?

If only we could swap all of our ideologues for practical pragmatists!

Where is Australia's own Lee Kwan Yu when we need him and his practical mindset, as never before!

I'd sooner want pragmatic Norwegian partners, who just want a fair share, than aggressive dominating Yanks, [most of them in oil,] who want all of it; as well as the all powerful economic, king making control, that goes with it!?
Rhrosty.
Posted by Rhrosty, Friday, 12 December 2014 12:24:38 PM
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@anti-green
Yes the Peak Oil fantasy has flopped badly. The world oil price is dropping because of a glut of oil and US can extract shale Oil efficiently making it relatively self-sufficient. Oil demand is falling and discoveries have been increasing. Norway's nearly $1 trillion is a LOT of reserve. Remember they only have 5 million people. If they have no oil today they wont be broke for a very long time.
Posted by Atman, Friday, 12 December 2014 2:28:54 PM
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