The IEA will have to have a hard look at themselves if in fact oil production decreases not increases so the shortage is worse than predicted. If total liquid fuels are nudging 90 billion barrels a day in 2014 I'd guess they want about 105 mpbd by 2020 to meet their 2040 target. What if it's 85 and falling?

The short term success of US fracking has led to what has been called 'irrational exuberence' in the stock market. Oil industry insiders say the fracking bubble will burst in the period 2016-2018. By implication deep gloom will set in. Either way Peak Oil is arguably more insidious than climate change as it will affect everybody not just some.

Let's not have the facts get in the way of a good story, or reasons why we the poor gullible traveling public, should as always, massively overpay for something, which in some more notable cases, has only cost a dollar a barrel to extract from the ground.
To be sure, a supply manipulating I.E.A. is worried, and not about oil, but future revenue.
And that has a lot more to do with very recent land based discoveries in Edmonton Canada, which fully exploited, could be considerably larger, than what lies under Saudi Arabia!
Which might also apply to our immediate north, a euphemism for the Great Barrier Reef, which we have been cleverly conned into closing!
And then to top that off, now asked to import nearly all our fuel.
And as we do just that, literally create four times more carbon processing and burning it, than what we would create, burning what lies beneath our virtual feet.
If carbon is killing our reef, with half of it already dead!?
Why in heavens name are we hastening this outcome, by simply/mindlessly choosing dirtier and vastly more expensive, fully imported (four times more carbon) options.
If we we just lead by those using the brains they were born with, we would give I.E.A. additional reasons to worry about their future returns.
Better they should open the valves now and sell what they can while they still have a market; even if that then means one or two producers, are unable to supply an export market, on the basis of real competition, (finally) and the cost to them of production!
I'm reminded here of the truism in medicine; use it or lose it; or put another way, protect yourself and your finally liberated oil market, sell it or well it!
And let those that can't please themselves; like say, producing and exporting vastly cheaper and endlessly sustainable alternatives!
Rhrosty.

I noticed this morning a report that US production has decreased. Judging by the graph
only a small amount, and only over the last couple of months, so it might be a case of
one swallow does not make a summer.
However with the Cushing price being $76 there are already reports of investment
pauses of drilling. It could of cause be the early cold weather.