The biblical book of Esther begins with Queen Vashti refusing the king's commands to come and dance nude (wearing only her crown on her head) to show her beauty to his banquet guests.

That was unheard of, so the king deposed her, for otherwise all women would start disobeying their husbands...

So is the author blaming Adelaide for refusing to go with the times: no he won't blame the demands of this murky 21st century, only its victims - for otherwise the rest of the country may follow suit and close itself down to the crumbling world, refusing to join its last Pompeyan banquet.

Chances are small, but I still hope that the rest of Australia joins Vashti's example.

I lived in Adelaide from 1983-1994, a time which saw the failure of the multifunction polis and the collapse of the State Bank, but the city pulled through. I used to live in a Housing Trust flat on Anzac Hwy but luckily got to meet people involved in CHASSA, running housing for themselves, and I became a member of Turtle Housing Coop, one of the most motivated and dynamic group of people I have ever met, but they lived an alternative lifestyle, and were sui generis original thinkers.
So looking back from retirement here in the Philippines, if there's one city in Australia that I'd quite happily go back and live in, it's certainly Adelaide.

Malcolm, this is a clear cut case of doing what you've always done, and expecting a very different result!
An economy, state or federal, rests on just two support pillars, energy and capital.
The state has surrendered to vested interest and now energy is too expensive to actually encourage high tech industry to relocate to SA!
And both sides of politics seem to be scrubbing their hands of responsibility for essential service!
Which if left in public hands would be far cheaper, and keep more employers interested in staying!
SA could also consider rolling out rapid rail.
And financing it via the later sales of resumed rezoned land alongside said link. (Think outside the box!)
And there is considerable scope for new mining, but particularly if SA is the first to adopt cheaper than coal, thorium power.
Yes I know, it's different, and the units are too small to serve the needs of the grid, but are large enough to serve the needs of this or that industrial estate/suburb.
And for less than half what they are now paying!
And those sort of connotations might just persuade an energy dependent Holden to stay or be replaced by something more high tech.
And given just how much the energy bill contributes to the cost of ship/sub building, those industries could also be saved, with a halved energy bill!
I mean what is their annual power bill now?
And if power bills could be more than halved, given thorium power and very local micro-grids, more would become available as a local discretionary spend!
And just that amount of change would encourage many niche operations to relocate to SA!
And if there were more discretionary spending, the share of the GST would grow.
SA needs people who are capable of thinking outside the box, and finally prepared to put SA first, even if that threatens political careers!
Rhrosty.

I've managed to spend almost half my adult life NOT living in Adelaide, with some struggle, but I've been back now for about a year, family reasons as per the article..
The author has nailed it, Adelaide has become a place in decline, with little hope for the future, it pervades the whole mindset, atmosphere, call it what you will.
I'll be even more glad than usual to leave again, and this time permanently.

Gday Bruce,

I'll share with you a little secret. Very few academics and opinion leaders can get a researched story up in the Adelaide media (apart from InDaily). It's all smiley faces and denial a mile wide. It reminds me of the Joh show in the late 70s. "She'll be right, don't you worry about that, feed the chooks," etc.

An opinion piece in the Tiser by Professor Richard Blandy from UniSA, critical of the Weatherill Government appeared this morning. It was pulled at 10.00 am by News Corp. No blog comments were published. This could have been due to blog maintenance or an IT error but it makes you think...

Adelaide has some fantastic people and beautiful coastal scenery but so far as a functioning economy, it is very, very dire.

Adelaide has never been the same since Premier Don Dunstan's pink pants departed. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Dunstan#Dunstan_decade

Perhaps Adelaidians should build nuclear reactors, plutonium reprocessors and nuclear weapons. No test explosions in upmarket Springfield but the working Woomera test range.

It is also axiomatic that people who can build cars are naturally endowed to build submarines more efficiently than the Germans or Japanese.

Maybe Adelaide should become Australia's gay capital to boot?

Hey Malcolm 'Paddy' King

That Professor Ricard Blandy piece is back http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/richard-blandy-strategies-for-sas-growth-not-statements-of-aspirations-please-mr-premier/story-fni6unxq-1227023553477

Looks like anti-HUAC communist propaganda!

Pete

Yeah, I can find it too Pete. But its not on the front page. Has been removed.

Fear not, Mr King.

According to some experts on this Forum, South Australia's slow GSP growth, coupled with a declining population, put it on track to economic Nirvana.

"GSP is growing at 1.0 percent yet Australia is growing at 2.8 per cent... On average, between 20-30,000 South Australians actually leave the state every year and in strong economic times, immigrants... make up most (but not all) of the short fall. In poor or indifferent economic times, the departures out weigh the arrivals by up to 4000 people per year. Since 1984, that has totaled 80,477 people."

Apparently, growing GSP and growing populations are inappropriate accessories to a flourishing economy.

>>If we were to have a population that was decreasing, we could possibly have a GDP that was decreasing while the economy was improving… and while per-capita GDP was increasing.<<

http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?discussion=6365#189541

Step up to the plate, Ludwig, and tell us all how it is done, why don't you.

Malcom it's all hot air if your not offering a solution. I don't think there is anything going on in Adeliade that is any different to anywhere else. Can you tell me any state that is doing well? Mining is all we have got these daya.... Some mines are doing very well in SA and NSW for that matter but most are in WA and QLD.

One thing we will both agree on the SA Libs are hopeless both feds and state. Labour can't loose an election rigged the Libs way.

I think Adelaide has been mismanaged as governments pander to sense of entitlement and running a political agenda that has left the state with the highest energy price in the country (and also most renewables - might be some coincidence). At some point other peoples money runs out and if squandered then there's no investments left to show for it. There's still time and the state is blessed. Just needs good strong leadership to help accelerate the turn around.

Thanks Malcolm King for this timely and detailed picture of what most parts of Australia are destined to become.

If a population keeps increasing, then at some point there is an oversupply of labour, and with computerisation, automation and mechanisation, the oversupply of labour happens much more quickly.

“We examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation. To assess this, we begin by implementing a novel methodology to estimate the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a Gaussian process classifier.

According to our estimates, about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk. “

http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf

SA is well overpopulated like the rest of Australia, although a little more advanced in its inevitable social and economic decline.

Keep the real estate market buoyant; that is the priority. Maintain a steady flow of Chinese criminals carrying their booty in suitcases to the Saturday morning auction, add $6.000 government grant and a free visa( as in NSW until the scam was rudely exposed), and *viola* the books are balanced! Go for it Adelaide!

Well said Malcolm
I have been saying exactly the same things since the GFC hit
but few appear to have been listening.
SA is not in danger but Adelaide is becoming an irrelevant city to the world. Unfortunately until people are willing to see the problems instead of denying them you can't begin to work on solutions.

Thanks State of Irrelevance,

Sometimes a social phenomena will rise up above the horizon and you'll find one piece of a jigsaw that leads to others. The American band The Eagles is doing a national tour in Feb/March 2015. It's the bands final superannuation top up tour. It's a Boomer nostalgia climax. They're doing every other capital but not Adelaide. In fact, most major international acts (Leonard Cohen excepted), bypass Adelaide (ditto Hobart). But Adelaide has 1.2M people. Why?

Two reasons: Adelaide folk don't book early online, which sends a signal to the promotor that they won't fill a house. The other reason is that promotors don't believe Adelaide live music consumers will ante up with the $$$. Why? Because the economy is so dire. Too much risk. Not enough liquidity.

You could rightly counter 'but we've got a fab new Adelaide oval!!' Doesn't matter. They've been burnt too many times. You could counter 'but we've got the Rolling Stones!' Paid for by the state government. Adelaide is the Gulag Archipelago for international acts.

Malcolm 'Paddy' King

I’ve just had a blood transfusion, because my heart bleed so much.

Adelaide is a good example of how non-viable the capital cities are becoming.

Remove manufacturing and taxpayer funded public servants from capital cities, and the capital cities are mostly non-viable.

There would be a good case for bulldozing down large areas of capital cities, and returning those areas back into natural bushland.

Or maybe this is the epitome of life as we should know it.

http://resources2.news.com.au/images/2010/07/29/1225898/272614-house-prices.jpg

Yes Malcolm, it's pretty bad. But you promised a forensic analysis of the psycho-social, and you've only given us the run down on the economics of it all. I am of the opinion that the economics do not reflect global factors so much as the crippling negativity that prevails in general cultural attitudes. I'd like to see equal attention given to "the problem of the bureaucracy", "the problems of the courts", "the problem of the surveillance regime that has taken to targeting individuals with ideas the SAPOL surveillance unit doesn't like", "the problem of the education department's managerialism in lieu of intellectual leadership" etc.

To make an offer that could have a positive impact, as well as make my life more interesting, I am right now looking for someone to help me recover a property that has been let go for nearly three years. It is in reasonably bad shape. The house needs attention even more than the property. I am not interested in paying an hourly rate. I am looking for someone who wants to help plan what needs to be done, and who would like to get involved in helping me make the place economically viable and then share in the profits from that - a joint venture type set-up where I made the property and the house available, and someone else puts in most of the labour. I have quite a few ideas about what could be done around here, but cannot get anything up and running unless I find the right person to work with me on it. Private message me (Glynne Sutcliffe Huilgol) on Facebook if you'd like to help me fix up one small part of the Adelaide economy. (Arrangement could be on basis of cash investment or on earning sweat equity)

Incomuicardo, what's the relevance of the Oxford Martin School link to a research report on computerisation? Do you have a page reference supporting anything in particular?

Trying to look scientific or academic are we? This is the same school that was dismissed the other week because Oxford Martin sees managed population and growth as essential for healthy economies and societies, you know having a job?

Knowing the Oxford Martin School their diagnosis of Adelaide problem would be declining and ageing population, which will become worse and impact all these living in Adelaide in future, leading to even more young people leaving and less local and inmternational immigrants ....... but that's the objective isn't it?

Andras Smith

Apparently money was still being made during 2011 in Adelaide.

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/property-investors-look-to-adelaides-northern-suburbs/story-e6frea83-1225987976820?nk=a825e36fd544326ec4bad3574aa5989f

There seems to be a need for some industry to be set up to attract workers in, and then get the money out of them.

Although I scratch my head wondering what that industry could be, when manufacturing is now in decline, or at least not employing as many workers as in the past.

I don't think there can be a return to business as usual.
What has happened to South Australia is where the rest of the country is heading.
It is just that SA got in first unfortunately.
Starting this decline so early may make it worse for SA.

The country and the world is heading into an era of zero growth. (if we are lucky).
If the political parties were able to recognise this they may be able
to make tax changes and modify industry to cope with the new world
without the risk of significant contraction.

Unless governments wake up and do something about changing our basic
sources of energy and restructure industry to be on a very much
locally organised economy we will really be in big trouble.

The global economy is ending and everything will be local.