GY,

There are a number of factors that should have affected the vote external to the local campaign.

1 Rudd gone - LNP + 3%
2 By election - ALP + 2-5%
3 Federal gov popularity slip - ALP + 3%
etc.

The range of expected results go from a very narrow LNP win to an ALP landslide.

The reality on the ground is that while the ALP won the seat, the LNP increased their share of the vote against the expectation of most Australians (whether justified or not). This gives the coalition's claim of voter endorsement some plausibility, in a field where facts are scarce and perception is king.

It's been reported that Labor's primary vote fell from 53% to 47% in Griffith: they had to rely on preferences. Nevertheless, Labor won; but, it's still a long time to the next election, and the result could hardly be called a 'message to Abbott' as some Laborites seem to think it was.

What I find most interesting about this post and two others in today's OLO (one concerning the ABC and the other the GBR) is the extent to which our PM has come to dominate our discourse.
It seems like just yesterday when the "Mad Monk" was elected leader of the then Opposition and given a chance midway between Buckley's and None to ever win a general election. And yet slowly, slowly he has emerged the clear winner, first by forcing a hung parliament, them by winning outright. And say what you might about the ALP destroying itself and its chances through the antics of Rudd and Gillard, Abbott has still emerged the clear winner.
Some throw up their hands in horror about the damage done to, or planned for, the Great Barrier Reef, the ABC, our relations with our near neighbours, the health and well-being of asylum seekers and their children, the environment, the independence of unions, etc ad infinitum. It is a long list.
And yet, and yet... Eventually Abbott will stumble and be forced out, or he will go on his own initiative, but until then he's PM. Is he a clown? Of course he's a clown. He's a politician. And a damned good one for all that. I suggest we learn to deal with it - stick to our different guns, by all means, but deal with it and not pretend it ain't happening.

Just a little aside I thought that the Palmer United no show would have seen more of their votes (3.35%) go to Bill Glasson. Doesn't appear to have eventuated.

One wonders how anyone could of voted Labour after Rudd's stupidity into inviting illegals her has cost tax payers billions and over a thousand lives. Some people must love remaining ignorant.

Graham
Wouldn't the vote in the General Election won by Gillard have impacted somewhat on K Rudd's personal vote. Didn't he suffer a larger swing against him than that experienced by the Labour Party?

What effect did that have on last years result and this by election.

If Rudd's personal vote had mostly evaporated in the Gillard election, as I contend, then the effect on the result in this election would have been less than your figures indicate.