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The Forum > Article Comments > Ceasefire aborted: secession, rebellion, and bloody conflict in South Sudan > Comments

Ceasefire aborted: secession, rebellion, and bloody conflict in South Sudan : Comments

By Benjamin Hale, published 4/2/2014

The CIA warned in 2010 that 'over the next five years...a new mass killing or genocide is most likely to occur in southern Sudan', a prediction which has been fatefully fulfilled.

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"The CIA warned in 2010 that 'over the next five years...a new mass killing or genocide is most likely to occur in southern Sudan."

Great! Someone who has access to the CIA's lists of predictions. They must be fascinating reading. For example, the list in 2005 presumably foretold the financial crisis which was soon to rock the world, plus a handful of predictions about peace in the middle eastern.

I look forward to reading this author's next article, in which he will provide us with a list of each of the CIA's predictions for the coming 5 years... that is, providing such a handy list actually exists. We wouldn't be making things up, would we?
Posted by JohnBennetts, Tuesday, 4 February 2014 11:15:13 AM
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JohnBennetts

the CIA quote can be found on Wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_in_South_Sudan

I think this was a good article, summarising the causes of conflict and the current sotuation very well.

It's an utter tragedy, though. I have friends from South Sudan; many of their stories are heartbreaking
Posted by Rhian, Tuesday, 4 February 2014 2:53:40 PM
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Thank you, Rhian.

That Wikipedia article was quite graphic, however I note that there is no link from that site to the CIA report containing a warning as referenced in the article and by you.

Essentially, there still no evidence that such a warning was given - in fact, it seems unlikely that CIA issue warnings with 5-year timeframes. Besides which, Wikipedia's article was last updated yesterday. I'm no expert on Wikipedia editing, but I do wonder whether the edit brought the Wiki page into line with the Forum's, or vice-versa, or neither of the above. Whatever, the CIA report remains unreferenced.
Posted by JohnBennetts, Tuesday, 4 February 2014 4:18:12 PM
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Looks like it was from evidence to a congressional hearing by CIA Director of National Intelligence Dennis C. Blair:

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/02/26/how_genocide_became_a_national_security_threat
Posted by Rhian, Tuesday, 4 February 2014 5:08:46 PM
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Thanks, Rhian.

Now for the listing of all CIA predictions. That would be interesting reading, but I am sure I lack the necessary security clearances.

jb
Posted by JohnBennetts, Tuesday, 4 February 2014 5:13:45 PM
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