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The Forum > Article Comments > No increase in warm nights or mild winters at Bathurst > Comments

No increase in warm nights or mild winters at Bathurst : Comments

By Jennifer Marohasy, published 30/10/2013

But I was nevertheless interested to see whether in fact this winter had been mild at Bathurst and if in fact there has been an increase in 'overnight temperatures'.

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It's not really interesting Poirot, it's trite. Of course you're going to get more hot days as it gets warmer, which is all it really says. It's just that instead of using a trend line he's using a shift upwards of the median temperature, which is really much the same thing.

However, it does have a relevance to my discussion with Agronomist in that Hansen claims that the standard deviation has increased in size, which is contrary to what we see in the Katoomba data.
Posted by GrahamY, Saturday, 2 November 2013 10:11:48 PM
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Graham,

"It's not really interesting Poirot, it's trite."

Curious anomalies don't mean much to some.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/alaska-roasts-during-october-reigniting-wildfire-16678

Interesting though when they start popping up all over the place.
Posted by Poirot, Saturday, 2 November 2013 10:32:13 PM
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GrahamY: I don’t intend to debate this point any longer. The meaning of attribute is “consider as caused by something indicated”. Its meaning is quite distinct from link. The readers can look at the BBC article themselves and determine that you are misrepresenting its contents.

As to the temperatures at Katoomba from the 1990s onwards, the variance in the mean annual temperatures from 1990 to 2012 is not significantly different to the variance of the mean annual temperatures from 1907 to 1989 (p = 0.45). However, the mean of the former group is significantly higher than the latter (p = 0.0035).
Posted by Agronomist, Sunday, 3 November 2013 7:27:40 AM
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If you want to have your own idiosyncratic use of language Agronomist, you can, but it will make it difficult to have a sensible discussion with you. However you twist and turn the article was attributing the fires in large part to global warming.

In fact, just to ensure I was being fair I went back and checked the article again, only to find this quote from Al Gore in its body where he uses "link" and "cause" interchangeably:

"His comments drew the ire of environmentalists. The former US vice president and climate change campaigner, Al Gore, said denying the link between this week's fires and global warming was like claiming smoking didn't cause lung cancer."

Not sure about your argument on variance. It is 2.24 for the earlier period and 1.59 for the latter. Seems significant to me. And that doesn't pick up the interannual variability that well where you see big leaps of more than two degrees between the average mean monthly maximum for September in 28% of years up to 1989 versus once in the 23 years since.

But if you don't want to talk sensibly about this then that's fine. I can't force you to converse.
Posted by GrahamY, Sunday, 3 November 2013 5:29:51 PM
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Poirot, the leftist groupthink in the ABC is so ingrained that their corporate affairs people cannot spot the bias even when it is pointed out to them.

As you profess to have profound knowledge of ABC programs, enlighten us by listing the anti-AGW scientists, if any, who have participated on the ABC Radio National Science Show run by AGW-believing chief censor, Robyn Williams -- remember his outrageous insult equating climate sceptics to people who promote paedophilia, asbestos and drugs:

“What if I told you pedophilia is good for children, or that asbestos is an excellent inhalant for those with asthmatics, or that smoking crack is a normal part and a healthy one of teenage life, to be encouraged? You’d rightly find it outrageous, but there have been similar statements coming out of inexpert mouths, distorting the science.”
Posted by Raycom, Friday, 8 November 2013 12:10:44 AM
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