This is a useful and highly targeted poll. Useful because it builds on previous polls conducted by Graham that chart an evolving picture of Australian leadership.

As a swinging voter, I consider that voters are relieved that the Coalition is not exhibiting the constant Labor record of division and Presidential grandstanding. The electorate rejected Labor's Rudd-Gillard-Rudd division. This Labor curse is still everpresent in the Electorate's mind - revisited by Nicola Roxon this week.

Abbott is more like a Malcolm Fraser who provides mild relief after a risky, unstable, popularist (who at the time was the sainted Whitlam but more recently Rudd).

While Abbott's leadership popularity is only mild, it may be his lack of showmanship that appeals. His ability to entrust responsibility and to back up Ministers may also be the qualities that a relieved electorate currently rates highly. All this reduces the chances of splits, wedges and division in the Coalition.

A ex-PM like Rudd who exhibits breathless self-promotion and popularism is risky behaviour that rightly cynical Australian Electorate quickly suspects and punishes.

Pete

congrats on..the front running
of course we all..are a bit poll weary

and to be honest..the The Leximancer Maps
below give some clues..but only gave me a headache

i..like pie charts..and the block graphs
and had a little ..difficulty..reading the numbers in the boxes
one size up could help..readability..still great work..running the numbers

thanks

The way I see it is that in 2007 people voted for Rudd & in 2013 they voted for the Coalition.
I think Abbott will endure & overcome the barrage of ridicule & injustice from the left & run the country well. Labor will do anything to undermine Abbott but they'll shoot themselves in the foot doing so. It'll be quite a while before Labor come to their senses.

Very fine analysis, as we have come to expect from you. However all this popularity polling is meaningless in the end. What the new government actually delivers is what matters. The next few months will be interesting.

I do note that the Coalition has moved very quickly on several policies, altho not with the precipitate haste of the Whitlam government when it took office. It will be interesting to see what happens. Meanwhile the Labor Party seems still fixated on its internal dissensions, which is unfortunate for Australian political life. Until it can sort out the hatreds (I use the term carefully) it cannot really be effectively, to use the British but important phrase, 'Her Majesty's loyal Opposition', an essential component of the Westminster system we have inherited, and which has worked fairly well for good government in Australia since Federation.

This article is a stark revelation about Abbott. http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/abbott-open-for-business-and-multinational-law-suits/700/ Not even Labor or John Howard would sign such agreements giving away what little sovereignty we have left.

Sorry, but the relentless polls about preferred Prime Minister when there is no likelihood of a change in Prime Minister for three years is not only pointless, it is all part of the malaise that afflicts our body politic. The drover's dog would rate well against Tony Abbott as preferred Prime Minister right now purely because many people did not vote for the coalition. Why on earth this is interesting or important at this stage beats me.

i had revelations..of the derivative..of a poll..[ie pole]
origonates..from..the times..we posted/measured..a;counted..
the number..and quality..fame-flame..of..the heads..stuck..on poles

http://books.google.com.au/books?id=RHwCAAAAQAAJ&pg=PT415&lpg=PT415&dq=derivative+of+poll+pole+polls&source=bl&ots=XRfi7ok4nz&sig=9Z1Wo94_m1m-I9VGuxyVLdQ5OQ4&hl=en&sa=X&ei=369hUu6nDIWViAf874GwCw&ved=0CCgQ6AEwAw#v=onepage&q=derivative%20of%20poll%20pole%20polls&f=false

ok
thats confirmed..at the end

POLLS

noun

*
1 (often the polls) the process of voting in an election:the country went to the polls on March 10
*
the number of votes cast in an election:the ruling party won 24 seats, narrowly topping the poll
*
(the polls) the places where votes are cast in an election:the polls have only just closed
*
short for opinion poll.

*
2 dialect a person’s head.
*
the part of the head on which hair grows; the scalp.

*
3a hornless animal, especially one of a breed of hornless cattle. See also red poll.

verb
[with object]

*
1record the opinion or vote of:over half of those polled do not believe the prime minister usually tells the truth
*
[no object, with adverbial] (of a candidate in an election) receive a specified number of votes:the Green candidate polled 3.6 per cent

*
2 Telecommunications & Computing check the status of (a device), especially as part of a repeated cycle: the network manager can also use the software to poll each Mac on the net

*
3cut the horns off (an animal, especially a young cow).
*
archaic cut off the top of (a tree or plant), typically to encourage further growth; pollard: there were some beautiful willows, and now the idiot Parson has polled them into wretched stumps

Derivatives

pollee

noun
sense 1 of the verb.

Origin:

Middle English (in the sense 'head'): perhaps of Low German origin. The original sense was 'head', and hence 'an individual person among a number', from which developed the sense 'number of people ascertained by counting of heads' and then 'counting of heads or of votes' (17th century)

It's a pity Nicola Roxon hadn't spoken her mind so honestly, just over three years ago.
It's a pity that there wasn't a spill and Rudd obliged to face a caucus deciding vote, even if that further compounded his then fragile emotional state?
I mean, no matter how you cut it, all of Labor's current problems and or polling, have their genesis in Rudd and the Rudd REVELATIONS?
Moreover, those same Machiavellian mechanizations, handed the last election on a plate to a still less than trusted coalition.
A problem not helped by a kow towing PM in damage control and the changes to climate change, highlighted by the fire storm disasters now wrecking havoc to Sydney's west?
Shorten came across as an extremely effective public performer, with a devastating and razor sharp wit!
I think he will do well as an excellent foil for Abbott, who is likely to be made to look a fool by that sharp wit?
And the sheer number of females on Shortens side of the aisle, will more than anything else, differentiate the two parties.
I also believe Labor was badly hurt in its heartland by the disastrous alliance with the dictatorial greens!?
An experiment never ever to be repeated.
Nor should they do any preference swaps with the greens, if they wish to not just win back that heartland, but get small business and Rural Australia onside.
Simply put, Labor must massively improve their primary vote!
They've made a good start with the democratization of the party, which must be seen only as a work in progress if they wish to improve their support base, to the point where they once again become electorally competitive/viable!
Rhrosty.

Barring the unforeseen disaster that is always lurking in politics, we now have two teams set to go head to head for the next three years. This may provide some much desired stability in Canberra.
Interesting times.
Will Abbott continue to grow in government as he did in opposition?
Will Shorten prove trustworthy given his part in the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd melodrama?
How will the two Deputy Leaders shadowing each other in Foreign Affairs go?
Also to watch are The Treasurer and his Shadow, Turnbull, and will that prat Conroy do to Defence what he did to NBN?

But Labor hasn't democratised the party at all when you can have the factions still pulling the Caucus into line to get the leadership result they want contrary to the wishes of the membership. What weird sort of democracy is that? And did Tony Abbott 'grow' in opposition? He was certainly disciplined with his endlessly repeated three-word slogans, but it seems to have numbed his brain as much as ours. He can hardly string together a coherent sentence and all those who can have been gagged. He is leaving a huge vacuum in the political discourse which will result in more airtime being given to other issues and parties. Clive Palmer is having a dream rum because he is available and happy to talk.

Don't forget that the Greens don't like Tony either, witness Bandt's go at him for the NSW bushfires.

Paying back expense rort money actually misappropriated, albeit not appropriated honestly, is not good enough for a Prime Minister.

Mr Abbott dismantling the carbon tax, oops, carbon pricing, and to then put an ETS in place likely in cahoots with Mr Shorten, is not good enough either.

A 1.5% swing to the Liberal Party is hardly a "landslide" win.

The total swing against the ALP was 4.61% yet they polled more first preference votes than the Liberals. (33.38% vs 32.02%).

Adding the results of the Nationals and the Country Liberals increases the total Coalition vote to 36.63% - again, not exactly a landslide.

Look at the disproportionate votes versus seats Queensland results.

Remember that more people voted against Abbott's team than for him and much of the traditional votes for both sides went to minor parties.

Abbott has set the new standard for Opposition performance so should not have any cause for complaint when he starts to break promises of his own.

Abbott and/or the LNP will be there for many years to come whether Mr Graham Young likes it or not. Just suck it up and live with it because there is much more to come with this show.
I think you will see a GST rise, bigger pay packets for polies and senior govt. officials even a national prison system to deal with the rise in crime.
I think all major infrastructure development will be taken out of the hands of local government and I thing penalty rates and ridiculous pay structures like teachers paid holidays while the kids are off school will go. Perhaps getting rid of school holidays like many other forward thinking countries would be a duel answer to pay rate and sliding education outcomes.
Suck it up and wait to see. The show won't be free though.