This is a useful and highly targeted poll. Useful because it builds on previous polls conducted by Graham that chart an evolving picture of Australian leadership.

As a swinging voter, I consider that voters are relieved that the Coalition is not exhibiting the constant Labor record of division and Presidential grandstanding. The electorate rejected Labor's Rudd-Gillard-Rudd division. This Labor curse is still everpresent in the Electorate's mind - revisited by Nicola Roxon this week.

Abbott is more like a Malcolm Fraser who provides mild relief after a risky, unstable, popularist (who at the time was the sainted Whitlam but more recently Rudd).

While Abbott's leadership popularity is only mild, it may be his lack of showmanship that appeals. His ability to entrust responsibility and to back up Ministers may also be the qualities that a relieved electorate currently rates highly. All this reduces the chances of splits, wedges and division in the Coalition.

A ex-PM like Rudd who exhibits breathless self-promotion and popularism is risky behaviour that rightly cynical Australian Electorate quickly suspects and punishes.

Pete

congrats on..the front running
of course we all..are a bit poll weary

and to be honest..the The Leximancer Maps
below give some clues..but only gave me a headache

i..like pie charts..and the block graphs
and had a little ..difficulty..reading the numbers in the boxes
one size up could help..readability..still great work..running the numbers

thanks

The way I see it is that in 2007 people voted for Rudd & in 2013 they voted for the Coalition.
I think Abbott will endure & overcome the barrage of ridicule & injustice from the left & run the country well. Labor will do anything to undermine Abbott but they'll shoot themselves in the foot doing so. It'll be quite a while before Labor come to their senses.

Very fine analysis, as we have come to expect from you. However all this popularity polling is meaningless in the end. What the new government actually delivers is what matters. The next few months will be interesting.

I do note that the Coalition has moved very quickly on several policies, altho not with the precipitate haste of the Whitlam government when it took office. It will be interesting to see what happens. Meanwhile the Labor Party seems still fixated on its internal dissensions, which is unfortunate for Australian political life. Until it can sort out the hatreds (I use the term carefully) it cannot really be effectively, to use the British but important phrase, 'Her Majesty's loyal Opposition', an essential component of the Westminster system we have inherited, and which has worked fairly well for good government in Australia since Federation.

This article is a stark revelation about Abbott. http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/abbott-open-for-business-and-multinational-law-suits/700/ Not even Labor or John Howard would sign such agreements giving away what little sovereignty we have left.

Sorry, but the relentless polls about preferred Prime Minister when there is no likelihood of a change in Prime Minister for three years is not only pointless, it is all part of the malaise that afflicts our body politic. The drover's dog would rate well against Tony Abbott as preferred Prime Minister right now purely because many people did not vote for the coalition. Why on earth this is interesting or important at this stage beats me.