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The Forum > Article Comments > The shale boom is just getting started > Comments

The shale boom is just getting started : Comments

By James Stafford, published 2/10/2013

According to economist Tyler Cowen peak oil won't be an issue for at least 30 years.

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< The shale boom is just getting started >

Oh…. How wonderful!

< According to economist Tyler Cowen peak oil won't be an issue for at least 30 years. >

Yahoo! That is indeed wonderful news!

We can just go right on being profligate energy-users, at an ever-increasing rate, without needing to give it a second thought for another twenty or twenty five years!

Especially now that AGW has been debunked!! (eh Hasbeen)

< …sustainable economic growth… >

Oh please! This is a total oxymoron!
Posted by Ludwig, Wednesday, 2 October 2013 9:51:27 AM
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The mindsets of Tyler Cowen and James Stafford seem to be completely blind to a few huge factors.

By talking up the shale oil resource, they are in effect strongly encouraging business as usual and working against the development of alternative renewable energy sources, improvements in efficiency and frugality, and efforts to stop or slow the ever-increasing rate of demand! This is highly counterproductive to us achieving a healthy future with secure and sustainable energy sources.

In fact, you’ve got to wonder just what they ARE thinking of!

I also doubt that the 30-year projection takes into account the very rapidly increasing demand for energy. It is probably based on the current rate of usage ??

Shale oil is a valuable resource. But we should be working towards exploiting it for the next couple of hundred years, at a much lower rate than we are heading towards, with lots of our energy requirements being met from renewable sources.
Posted by Ludwig, Wednesday, 2 October 2013 9:54:56 AM
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The reason we rejected shale oil in the past, was it was just too expensive to recover!
And why would you, when in some places, it still only costs around $3.00 a barrel to recover traditional oil?
The US has larger reserves, when you factor in shale oil and gas, the the entire Middle East!
If it were not so expensive to recover and process into fuel, the US would never have needed to import any oil from anyone!
If we were only as half as smart as we think we are, we would simply reject this example of a Dorothy Dix questionnaire, you'd be forgiven for thinking, carefully crafted for big oil?
Suppose we tap into our own very large reserves, we would create in the process, 4 times more Co2, than we would create drilling for and using the traditional hydrocarbon resources; likely to be found as a veritable bonanza, under our own great barrier reef?
We could limit the extraction to just the NG we could find there, and exclusively for the domestic market?
Then consume that in solid state ceramic fuel cells that produce electrical energy, and free hot water, without the usual harmful Co2 or particulate matter!
If we could limit our costs to or charge ourselves, just recovery and reticulation costs, via a reborn govt oil and gas corporation, we could reinvigorate our own manufacturing base.
Which could include NG>ceramic cell powered electric vehicles; super silent virtually unlimited range vehicles, that although hydrocarbon powered, produce no Co2 or particulate matter! Much less than any battery powered electric vehicles, reliant on coal-fired power for a recharge!
And when you consider the 72% energy coefficient of the NG powered ceramic fuel cell, you would be talking about the world's cheapest energy!
We also have the option of getting into endlessly sustainable algae/oil production in a very big way.
Some algae produce ready to use, almost as is, diesel or jet fuel! And this fuel to be retailed for just 44 cent a litre, inclusive of a fuel excise.
Rhrosty.
Posted by Rhrosty, Wednesday, 2 October 2013 10:58:16 AM
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We will if we survive, run out of oil one day! We might even run out of so-called unconventional or tight oil!?
But if we are just half smart and get into the endlessly sustainable algae sourced oil business, we will never ever run out of that!
Algae absorb 2.5 times their own body-weight in Co2 emission; and, under optimized conditions, literally double that body-weight and absorption capacity, EVERY TWENTY FOUR HOURS!
Some algae are up to 60% oil, which is virtual child's play to extract. Hence some estimates, of a retail price of just 44 cents a litre, for the fuel.
Some algae naturally produce ready to use jet fuel and or diesel. And unlike many other nations, we have yet to trial local innovation, which converts our own biological waste into biogas.
Biogas, that after scrubbing, will work as well or better than NG in ceramic fuel cells.
Our own biological waste is something we are unlikely to ever run out of!
And the by products of this smell free process, will see us producing safe to reuse, recycled water; and an endless supply of high carbon, nitrate and phosphate rich, thoroughly sanitized, very low cost, organic fertilizer! The next boom will be a food boom!
Aspiring Labour Leader, Albo, is correct when he says, the country that gets into the new alternative energy/new economy first, will lead the world and prosper!
The startling if inescapable fact, is the changeover, doesn't ever need to be an economic negative, just the very opposite!
The only thing that stands in our way, is OUR OWN flawed belief systems/ideology; and or, FOREIGN MASTERS!?
Rhrosty.
Posted by Rhrosty, Wednesday, 2 October 2013 11:33:43 AM
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Doesn't the fact that we are now seriously considering non-conventional oil and gas prove the peak oil theory? Peak oil theory never said we would run out of oil - as some will always be too expensive or take too much energy to extract - for eg, what is the point of extracting x amount of oil if it takes x+Y amount to extract it?

But what is happening now, and will continue, is the cheap and easy to get oil is running out and now we are looking to get it from the deep oceans (risky and expensive - just ask the people living in the Gulf of Mexico near the Deepwater Horizon spill), the arctic, tar oil sands, and by fracking to get CSG etc even though it risks the health of nearby residents and can contaminate underground water and farming land.

We need to face facts, Peak oil theory has not been disproved by the extraction of these new sources of oil. In fact it explains why we are now paying more for petrol (petrol prices have risen by nearly 300% in last 10 years)and why we are seriously considering turning to ever more risky and expensive sources of oil.
Posted by BJelly, Wednesday, 2 October 2013 11:51:08 AM
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Well BJ, and I agree with your summation; even the fittest amongst us are not going to be able to peddle a bike from Perth to Paramatta.
Nor will we be able to light up our homes or keep essential food cool just by Solar power, which I have!
I don't however, see shale oil or gas as a solution for anyone except say, the price gouging fossil fuel industry.
Producing fuel from shale oil and tar sands etc, produces four times more Co2 emission, than some conventional fuel! We would do far less harm by accessing the conventional reserves, in the Great Barrier Reef!
This is down to the extra refining and processing required by Shale/tar sands etc.
Who in their right mind is going to refuse endlessly sustainable alternatives that are cheaper than current supplies?
Some of which is cheaper than coal thorium.
And if we would just get rid of the gold plated great white elephant called the national grid, we could immediately reduce coal-fired emission by around 25%!
I've alluded to a couple of viable endlessly sustainable examples in earlier posts.
What we haven't discussed is the possibility that hydrogen could also be part of the mix in energy requirements.
There is a method that relies on exclusively on a solid state, catalytic assisted, water molecule cracking method, which could rely exclusively on sea water and solar thermal heat, and then used to store energy!
And as such would only cost a couple of cents per cubic metre to produce.
Consumed on high ground in fuel cells, to create raw electricity on demand, it would also create pristine water as a by product, which could then be directed wherever needed!
Listening to the industry experts? One would be forced to conclude, no other viable alternatives existed. I guess that's what they want us to believe?
Cheers, Rhrosty.
Posted by Rhrosty, Wednesday, 2 October 2013 5:45:31 PM
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The increase in oil and gas use unsustainable and will be until is gone . The expansion of road transport facilities intensifies traffic congestion. The basic reason is that motor vehicle use is subsidized and thus the growth of the freeway and highway system leads to an increase in the demand for their use which increase private debt levels. Locally sourced production that saves money on transportation costs is what is needed to contribute to the revival of manufacturing and Constrain Chinese import model. Being near your market will be more important in the 21st century cut the growth in private debt levels

What is urgently needed is more public transport and active transport, to end subsidites to car commuters and increased tariffs on imported cars and turning Australian car production around to electric cars and petrol electric hybrids

This is simple economics. You subsidize something, people use more of it. Few who use the roads pay the full cost of their use — especially when you consider the costs of things such as urban pollution, depletion of oil reserves, global warming and focusing on road maintenance. Indeed, some parts of the road system are at breaking point now. The road foundation is so bad in parts that just laying new asphalt won’t work as the surface doesn’t last. As the surface gets rough, traffic slows and backups begin.

In the forseable future Australians will spend more time idling away in traffic. Congestion will continue to raise the cost of transporting goods. Costs to use this network will just go up and up. Thinking of it in this way, it signals a crisis for an old order and perhaps the birth of something new. But unlikely with new mob in Canberra
Posted by PEST, Wednesday, 2 October 2013 6:00:16 PM
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The first thing to recognise is that the shale oil boom is a con.
It has extended the life of big oil so that they can continue to lobby (bribe) governments to do their bidding.
It is not a panacea for continued business as usual. The cost is too high, the polluting effects are too high and it will not last for too long.
In the big tight oil plays in the US, there are wells every 750 meters.
They cost a fortune to drill and only produce for about five years.
It is not a profit making business but staggers along to keep the hype about the great US economy recovery going.
This is not a recipe for cheap oil.
It will fizzle out in the near future as the costs escalate.
Posted by Robert LePage, Friday, 4 October 2013 11:38:38 AM
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Ahhh, Robert le Page stole my thunder !

Yes shale oil & gas is a giant Ponzi scheme that needs more and more
money to keep going. It is the financial side of the oil industry that
is pushing it the hardest.

Not once in the article was there even a hint at the elephant in the shale room.

Decline ! Average decline of tight oil is 60% a year and the less
successful wells it is as high as 80% a year.
The problem they are having is that the further they drill away from
the "sweet spots" the faster the decline rates.
The Bakken is a good example of this, there are already signs that
the Bakken field has started its decline.
What this means is that they cannot drill enough wells fast enough to
keep to keep up the whole fields production.

It has been calculated that the US tight (shale) oil fields will be
in rapid decline by 2017 to 2020. Probably led by Bakken and closely
followed by the Texas fields.

We, the world, face the reality that cheap oil is over, and petrol
and diesel prices must rise fast just to keep supply for essential services.
As we mix increasing amounts of unconventional oils with conventional
oils the pump prices will escalate to about five to eight times
the present price, if and only if, the supply can be kept at the current rate.
If it cannot then $15 a litre is quite on the cards.
However there is a buffer available, convert cars & trucks to natural gas.
That would require stopping export of natural gas.

Here in this country we are cutting our own throats by closing our
refineries and importing 100% of our petrol & diesel.
Our stupid politicians just cannot see what that means.
Posted by Bazz, Monday, 7 October 2013 12:29:02 PM
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