< The shale boom is just getting started >

Oh…. How wonderful!

< According to economist Tyler Cowen peak oil won't be an issue for at least 30 years. >

Yahoo! That is indeed wonderful news!

We can just go right on being profligate energy-users, at an ever-increasing rate, without needing to give it a second thought for another twenty or twenty five years!

Especially now that AGW has been debunked!! (eh Hasbeen)

< …sustainable economic growth… >

Oh please! This is a total oxymoron!

The mindsets of Tyler Cowen and James Stafford seem to be completely blind to a few huge factors.

By talking up the shale oil resource, they are in effect strongly encouraging business as usual and working against the development of alternative renewable energy sources, improvements in efficiency and frugality, and efforts to stop or slow the ever-increasing rate of demand! This is highly counterproductive to us achieving a healthy future with secure and sustainable energy sources.

In fact, you’ve got to wonder just what they ARE thinking of!

I also doubt that the 30-year projection takes into account the very rapidly increasing demand for energy. It is probably based on the current rate of usage ??

Shale oil is a valuable resource. But we should be working towards exploiting it for the next couple of hundred years, at a much lower rate than we are heading towards, with lots of our energy requirements being met from renewable sources.

The reason we rejected shale oil in the past, was it was just too expensive to recover!
And why would you, when in some places, it still only costs around $3.00 a barrel to recover traditional oil?
The US has larger reserves, when you factor in shale oil and gas, the the entire Middle East!
If it were not so expensive to recover and process into fuel, the US would never have needed to import any oil from anyone!
If we were only as half as smart as we think we are, we would simply reject this example of a Dorothy Dix questionnaire, you'd be forgiven for thinking, carefully crafted for big oil?
Suppose we tap into our own very large reserves, we would create in the process, 4 times more Co2, than we would create drilling for and using the traditional hydrocarbon resources; likely to be found as a veritable bonanza, under our own great barrier reef?
We could limit the extraction to just the NG we could find there, and exclusively for the domestic market?
Then consume that in solid state ceramic fuel cells that produce electrical energy, and free hot water, without the usual harmful Co2 or particulate matter!
If we could limit our costs to or charge ourselves, just recovery and reticulation costs, via a reborn govt oil and gas corporation, we could reinvigorate our own manufacturing base.
Which could include NG>ceramic cell powered electric vehicles; super silent virtually unlimited range vehicles, that although hydrocarbon powered, produce no Co2 or particulate matter! Much less than any battery powered electric vehicles, reliant on coal-fired power for a recharge!
And when you consider the 72% energy coefficient of the NG powered ceramic fuel cell, you would be talking about the world's cheapest energy!
We also have the option of getting into endlessly sustainable algae/oil production in a very big way.
Some algae produce ready to use, almost as is, diesel or jet fuel! And this fuel to be retailed for just 44 cent a litre, inclusive of a fuel excise.
Rhrosty.

We will if we survive, run out of oil one day! We might even run out of so-called unconventional or tight oil!?
But if we are just half smart and get into the endlessly sustainable algae sourced oil business, we will never ever run out of that!
Algae absorb 2.5 times their own body-weight in Co2 emission; and, under optimized conditions, literally double that body-weight and absorption capacity, EVERY TWENTY FOUR HOURS!
Some algae are up to 60% oil, which is virtual child's play to extract. Hence some estimates, of a retail price of just 44 cents a litre, for the fuel.
Some algae naturally produce ready to use jet fuel and or diesel. And unlike many other nations, we have yet to trial local innovation, which converts our own biological waste into biogas.
Biogas, that after scrubbing, will work as well or better than NG in ceramic fuel cells.
Our own biological waste is something we are unlikely to ever run out of!
And the by products of this smell free process, will see us producing safe to reuse, recycled water; and an endless supply of high carbon, nitrate and phosphate rich, thoroughly sanitized, very low cost, organic fertilizer! The next boom will be a food boom!
Aspiring Labour Leader, Albo, is correct when he says, the country that gets into the new alternative energy/new economy first, will lead the world and prosper!
The startling if inescapable fact, is the changeover, doesn't ever need to be an economic negative, just the very opposite!
The only thing that stands in our way, is OUR OWN flawed belief systems/ideology; and or, FOREIGN MASTERS!?
Rhrosty.

Doesn't the fact that we are now seriously considering non-conventional oil and gas prove the peak oil theory? Peak oil theory never said we would run out of oil - as some will always be too expensive or take too much energy to extract - for eg, what is the point of extracting x amount of oil if it takes x+Y amount to extract it?

But what is happening now, and will continue, is the cheap and easy to get oil is running out and now we are looking to get it from the deep oceans (risky and expensive - just ask the people living in the Gulf of Mexico near the Deepwater Horizon spill), the arctic, tar oil sands, and by fracking to get CSG etc even though it risks the health of nearby residents and can contaminate underground water and farming land.

We need to face facts, Peak oil theory has not been disproved by the extraction of these new sources of oil. In fact it explains why we are now paying more for petrol (petrol prices have risen by nearly 300% in last 10 years)and why we are seriously considering turning to ever more risky and expensive sources of oil.

Well BJ, and I agree with your summation; even the fittest amongst us are not going to be able to peddle a bike from Perth to Paramatta.
Nor will we be able to light up our homes or keep essential food cool just by Solar power, which I have!
I don't however, see shale oil or gas as a solution for anyone except say, the price gouging fossil fuel industry.
Producing fuel from shale oil and tar sands etc, produces four times more Co2 emission, than some conventional fuel! We would do far less harm by accessing the conventional reserves, in the Great Barrier Reef!
This is down to the extra refining and processing required by Shale/tar sands etc.
Who in their right mind is going to refuse endlessly sustainable alternatives that are cheaper than current supplies?
Some of which is cheaper than coal thorium.
And if we would just get rid of the gold plated great white elephant called the national grid, we could immediately reduce coal-fired emission by around 25%!
I've alluded to a couple of viable endlessly sustainable examples in earlier posts.
What we haven't discussed is the possibility that hydrogen could also be part of the mix in energy requirements.
There is a method that relies on exclusively on a solid state, catalytic assisted, water molecule cracking method, which could rely exclusively on sea water and solar thermal heat, and then used to store energy!
And as such would only cost a couple of cents per cubic metre to produce.
Consumed on high ground in fuel cells, to create raw electricity on demand, it would also create pristine water as a by product, which could then be directed wherever needed!
Listening to the industry experts? One would be forced to conclude, no other viable alternatives existed. I guess that's what they want us to believe?
Cheers, Rhrosty.