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The Forum > Article Comments > Election chaos and surprises aplenty > Comments

Election chaos and surprises aplenty : Comments

By Kathryn Crosby, published 21/8/2013

Sure the Coalition can win, but Tony Abbott is a bad campaigner and likely to run out of puff.

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Errant nonsense.
The only one running out of puff is Kevin Rudd.
From day one he campaigned like an already beaten/condemned man. Like an actor reading from a well thumbed but failed script!
Given the loss of the independents, Kevin Rudd needs to pick up four of five more seats than those he loses.
My prediction is he'll not just fall short, but start going backwards in the last critical weeks.
This is because he relies on green preferences in critical marginal seats, and they are also slipping backwards.
Moreover, most thinking voters, even former Labour supporters realize, Labour needs to spends some time in the political wilderness, to clean up its brand and finally embrace democracy.
Losing this election could be something of a blessing in disguise, and or a poisoned chalice for the winners; thanks to the way the economy is heading, and likely to head even further south or tank, given the preferred austerity measures of the far right ideologues?
I don't see Tony Abbott running out of puff; but rather, get his second wind.
Particularly if he refuses to get down and dirty, and just stick to his core messages and the fundamentals.
The only policy that might swing the campaign in Labour's favor, is some real measure to make mass housing affordable once again.
This could be kick started by the repeal of negative gearing and some further tax breaks for new home buyers/builders, along with some infrastructure roll outs.
Like say rapid rail, which could be funded three or four times over, with thirty year self terminating thirty year bonds.
This would also underpin a sustained boost in the non mining economy, which is sorely needed right now, given the sheer number of businesses being wound up, or trying to trade out of insolvency?
"Its the economy stupid"!
Rhrosty.
Posted by Rhrosty, Wednesday, 21 August 2013 10:41:01 AM
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I think Abbott will hold on. He's been campaigning for three years now and hasn't run out of puff yet.
The one absolute benefit to the ALP if they do lose is the final curtain on Kevin (the selfie) Rudd. Shorten can come in and give us back a credible Labour Party.
The Coalition can't wreck the joint in three years. The economic imperatives will keep them at least somewhat focused.
But these preference swaps are a worry. That the Liberal Party has preferenced the controversial anti-Islam Rise Up Australia Party ahead of Labor and the Greens in the Victorian Senate race could give us a real nasty surprise on election night. And that's not the only one waiting to goose us.
Who said this election wasn't exciting?
Posted by halduell, Wednesday, 21 August 2013 11:07:20 AM
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Kathryn has caught the political chaos perfectly.

The Australian electorate is in chaos. Most people don't know which way to go, who to believe. There is fear, anger, suspicion everywhere.

The newspapers are full of propaganda, the airwaves are bursting with cunning folk promising this and that while attacking the other side, shock-jocks mouth ridiculous statements, try to panic the sheeple.

The two potential Prime Minsters jibber and jabber and kiss babies and allow their photos to be taken by the man and women in the street. So-called debates take place and the lies and obfuscations proliferate like weeds in spring.

Never have I felt such despair, such fear for the future of my country! We have ended up in a gigantic, lose-lose situation.

Bob Katter is looking better all the time!
Posted by David G, Wednesday, 21 August 2013 11:17:15 AM
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...Time simply proves that this election is not about personalities so much, as about the historical narrative of both major parties: Both abysmally self serving to narrow political elements.
Posted by diver dan, Wednesday, 21 August 2013 12:00:00 PM
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The author should know by now that governments that perform badly -- there is no doubting that Labor has performed badly for the past six years -- lose elections.

Furthermore, there are enough voters to observe that the recycled PM demonstrates that he has not changed his spots. They remember that he specialises in dysfunctionality. His credibility, if he has any left, is fast been whittled away on the campaign trail by his persistent baseless spin. His wide experience in communicating to school pupils puts him in good stead to take up a career in teaching, when he bows out of politics.
Posted by Raycom, Wednesday, 21 August 2013 12:45:53 PM
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Some political strategists make the brave assumption that voters will unquestionably accept their message, thus ignoring past performance or rather the lack thereof. One such 'strategist' is John McTernan -- remember Julia Gillard's 457 visa import:
"Three weeks to go, can Labor still win? Oh, yes" http://www.smh.com.au/comment/three-weeks-to-go-can-labor-still-win-oh-yes-20130819-2s7ax.html

McTernan counts on voters having poor memories, and assumes that the Coalition will not retaliate with negative ads about Kevin 13. The Coalition is not short of negative "cutting to the bone" quotes about Kevin made by Kev's Labor colleagues; nor of reminders about Kev's and Julia's many broken promises and irresponsible overspending.
Posted by Raycom, Wednesday, 21 August 2013 1:40:55 PM
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I would agree with Rhosty, based on 2010 Abbott never ran out of puff.

Rudd, however, is looking distinctly jaded.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Wednesday, 21 August 2013 1:52:19 PM
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'Kathryn Crosby is a political and communication strategist ' maybe she can change to climate science come 7 September. Her science would fit the bill nicely.
Posted by runner, Wednesday, 21 August 2013 5:30:31 PM
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Kathryn, if you care to make a wager on a Labor win, Sportsbet will take your money and give you odds of 7.5 to one. Please feel free to punt as much as you like -- the more they pull in from Labor hopefuls, the bigger the Coalition bets they can cover.
Posted by Jon J, Wednesday, 21 August 2013 7:09:02 PM
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All I can say is that if the author thinks that the Labor Party has a snowball's chance in hell of winning the election they should go to Centrebet and get as much on Labor at 7.5:1 as they can.
Posted by plerdsus, Wednesday, 21 August 2013 7:47:26 PM
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I too doubt that Labor can win, but I think they will get a lot closer to the winning post than anyone previously thought.

Why? Because Abbott is supremely unpopular with many people...mainly women. If he was popular, he should have beaten Gillard 3 years ago, especially after all the messy Labor in-fighting at the time.

As for me, I will be going on policies, and I don't like Labor's policy on Salary packaged cars, and I do like Liberal's generous parental leave scheme.
Now...if only I could just get past my instinctive dislike of Abbott.
Posted by Suseonline, Thursday, 22 August 2013 1:07:57 AM
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It is nothing short of astounding how the supporters of incompetence are now resorting to talk themselves into voting for Rudd. Are they totally devoid of sense & integrity ?
Posted by individual, Thursday, 22 August 2013 6:20:42 AM
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Now...if only I could just get past my instinctive dislike of Abbott.
Suseonline,
definitely not instinctive, it's definitely indoctrination. That dislike of Abbott is like many gays nowadays, it's somehow fashionable amongst the weirdos. Anyone with an ounce of sense doesn't vote for Rudd or Abbott, they vote for the better team & the better team happens to have Abbott at the helm.
Posted by individual, Thursday, 22 August 2013 6:24:22 AM
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individual,

That's quite amusing, considering Australia these days appears to run it's elections "Presidential style".

I'd be obliged if you could articulate those particular virtues pertaining to Abbott's "team"?

Can't see it myself....considering their "signature policy" appears to encompass handing over big bickies to rich ladies (dumb!)
Posted by Poirot, Thursday, 22 August 2013 9:19:17 AM
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Abbott is clearly a thug!

His insult directed at our Prime Minister shows that he has no class, no breeding at all. On a bike is where he belongs or wearing his budgie-smugglers at some beach.

I would ask the Abbott Apologists to list the qualities that Abbott has that would see him become a successful Prime Minister! Driving a truck, stacking shelves in a supermarket, filleting fish, lying with a straight face, giving women on 150 K a year a 75 K baby bonus, etc, doesn't cut it!

Could anyone in their right mind imagine Tony addressing the U.N., his big ears flapping, his constant repetition of sentences, his battered face with its pugnacious jaw jutting. Perhaps he would tell the other members to 'SHUT UP' or 'GET STUFFED'!

Australia is about to make the biggest electoral mistake in its history if they elect Abbott.

Rudd deserves another chance. We don't want HOWARD LITE rewarding the rich and punishing the poor!
Posted by David G, Thursday, 22 August 2013 10:18:28 AM
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Rudd is a bully and a cheat. He thinks that shouting down someone is the way to get what he wants. His mistreatment of the make up artist is proof of this.

Abbott waited politely for Rudd to finish droning on before answering the question directed to him, and could not even finish his reply before Rudd interjected and tried to turn the debate into a Rudd monologue. I was thinking "won't this idiot shut up," long before Abbott spoke.

Apparently the request to keep answers short, allow others to speak, and not bring in cheat sheets does not apply to our sociopathic PM.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Thursday, 22 August 2013 12:02:25 PM
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Rudd is a bully and a cheat, says Shadow Minister.

I seem to remember that lowlife Abbott, during his University days, was said to have punched the wall alongside a female student's head to show his displeasure and anger.

S.M. get your facts right! Abbott is a scripted individual who hides the thug inside him very well.
Posted by David G, Thursday, 22 August 2013 4:21:36 PM
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His insult directed at our Prime Minister shows that he has no class, no breeding at all.
David G,
Our prime Minister has insulted too many of us hence Abbott telling him to shut it. I mean Rudd was like a little spoiled prat who wouldn't let Abbott speak.
What you call lack of class, sensible people call cal;ling a spade a spade. Rudd was so thrown off balance he didn't even know where to look. It showed his lack of class as a manager.
Posted by individual, Thursday, 22 August 2013 5:48:36 PM
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I'd be obliged if you could articulate those particular virtues pertaining to Abbott's "team"?
Poirot,
I'm happy to oblige. They have some sense in contrast to Rudd's lot having none.
Posted by individual, Thursday, 22 August 2013 8:15:25 PM
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David G,

The only thing you have on Abbott is a radical left whinger claiming after 30 years that Abbott punched the wall either side of her head after a student council meeting. Surprisingly among a throng of students that this was witnessed by no one, nor reported. Another attempt by the same bunch to report harassment by Abbott was disproved by multiple independent witnesses, and nearly lead to the prosecution of the left whinger involved.

Rudd the Dudd however, has a multitude of reports of nasty behaviour by multiple witnesses
Posted by Shadow Minister, Sunday, 25 August 2013 8:14:24 AM
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Thanks, SM.

Your opinion pertains to this story.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/news-ltd-apologises-to-barbara-ramjan-over-tony-abbott-punch-story-20130805-2r8si.html

".....and nearly lead to the prosecution of the left whinger involved."

Well, there was a court case concerning Ramjan's claims.

"In a remarkable twist that could reignite debate about Mr Abbott's alleged punching of a wall after losing a student election in the late 1970s, News Ltd's barrister read an extended apology in the NSW Supreme Court on Monday on behalf of The Australian to the alleged victim of the intimidation, Barbara Ramjan, as part of a settlement of a defamation action."

""The Australian apologises to Ms Ramjan for any suggestion that she lied about those events and acknowledges that the recollection of those events was contested by all participants, who were sincere in what they recalled."

The apology was part of a settlement of the defamation action which Ms Ramjan brought against News Limited and Mr Kroger over the accusations, which he repeated on Channel 10's The Bolt Report, and Alan Jones' breakfast radio show on 2GB."
Posted by Poirot, Sunday, 25 August 2013 9:00:42 AM
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P,

As there were no witnesses, Newscorp could no more prove that Ramjan's fantasy was false than Ramjan could prove it was true.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Sunday, 25 August 2013 9:13:16 AM
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