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The Forum > Article Comments > Election chaos and surprises aplenty > Comments

Election chaos and surprises aplenty : Comments

By Kathryn Crosby, published 21/8/2013

Sure the Coalition can win, but Tony Abbott is a bad campaigner and likely to run out of puff.

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Errant nonsense.
The only one running out of puff is Kevin Rudd.
From day one he campaigned like an already beaten/condemned man. Like an actor reading from a well thumbed but failed script!
Given the loss of the independents, Kevin Rudd needs to pick up four of five more seats than those he loses.
My prediction is he'll not just fall short, but start going backwards in the last critical weeks.
This is because he relies on green preferences in critical marginal seats, and they are also slipping backwards.
Moreover, most thinking voters, even former Labour supporters realize, Labour needs to spends some time in the political wilderness, to clean up its brand and finally embrace democracy.
Losing this election could be something of a blessing in disguise, and or a poisoned chalice for the winners; thanks to the way the economy is heading, and likely to head even further south or tank, given the preferred austerity measures of the far right ideologues?
I don't see Tony Abbott running out of puff; but rather, get his second wind.
Particularly if he refuses to get down and dirty, and just stick to his core messages and the fundamentals.
The only policy that might swing the campaign in Labour's favor, is some real measure to make mass housing affordable once again.
This could be kick started by the repeal of negative gearing and some further tax breaks for new home buyers/builders, along with some infrastructure roll outs.
Like say rapid rail, which could be funded three or four times over, with thirty year self terminating thirty year bonds.
This would also underpin a sustained boost in the non mining economy, which is sorely needed right now, given the sheer number of businesses being wound up, or trying to trade out of insolvency?
"Its the economy stupid"!
Rhrosty.
Posted by Rhrosty, Wednesday, 21 August 2013 10:41:01 AM
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I think Abbott will hold on. He's been campaigning for three years now and hasn't run out of puff yet.
The one absolute benefit to the ALP if they do lose is the final curtain on Kevin (the selfie) Rudd. Shorten can come in and give us back a credible Labour Party.
The Coalition can't wreck the joint in three years. The economic imperatives will keep them at least somewhat focused.
But these preference swaps are a worry. That the Liberal Party has preferenced the controversial anti-Islam Rise Up Australia Party ahead of Labor and the Greens in the Victorian Senate race could give us a real nasty surprise on election night. And that's not the only one waiting to goose us.
Who said this election wasn't exciting?
Posted by halduell, Wednesday, 21 August 2013 11:07:20 AM
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Kathryn has caught the political chaos perfectly.

The Australian electorate is in chaos. Most people don't know which way to go, who to believe. There is fear, anger, suspicion everywhere.

The newspapers are full of propaganda, the airwaves are bursting with cunning folk promising this and that while attacking the other side, shock-jocks mouth ridiculous statements, try to panic the sheeple.

The two potential Prime Minsters jibber and jabber and kiss babies and allow their photos to be taken by the man and women in the street. So-called debates take place and the lies and obfuscations proliferate like weeds in spring.

Never have I felt such despair, such fear for the future of my country! We have ended up in a gigantic, lose-lose situation.

Bob Katter is looking better all the time!
Posted by David G, Wednesday, 21 August 2013 11:17:15 AM
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...Time simply proves that this election is not about personalities so much, as about the historical narrative of both major parties: Both abysmally self serving to narrow political elements.
Posted by diver dan, Wednesday, 21 August 2013 12:00:00 PM
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The author should know by now that governments that perform badly -- there is no doubting that Labor has performed badly for the past six years -- lose elections.

Furthermore, there are enough voters to observe that the recycled PM demonstrates that he has not changed his spots. They remember that he specialises in dysfunctionality. His credibility, if he has any left, is fast been whittled away on the campaign trail by his persistent baseless spin. His wide experience in communicating to school pupils puts him in good stead to take up a career in teaching, when he bows out of politics.
Posted by Raycom, Wednesday, 21 August 2013 12:45:53 PM
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Some political strategists make the brave assumption that voters will unquestionably accept their message, thus ignoring past performance or rather the lack thereof. One such 'strategist' is John McTernan -- remember Julia Gillard's 457 visa import:
"Three weeks to go, can Labor still win? Oh, yes" http://www.smh.com.au/comment/three-weeks-to-go-can-labor-still-win-oh-yes-20130819-2s7ax.html

McTernan counts on voters having poor memories, and assumes that the Coalition will not retaliate with negative ads about Kevin 13. The Coalition is not short of negative "cutting to the bone" quotes about Kevin made by Kev's Labor colleagues; nor of reminders about Kev's and Julia's many broken promises and irresponsible overspending.
Posted by Raycom, Wednesday, 21 August 2013 1:40:55 PM
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