Hi Graham, IMHO your central thesis is right. It would not matter at this stage whether Rudd, shorten or anybody else was PM. Labor/Greens are on the nose. Why one may ask? Could it be that the electorate now sees Labor/Greens as disenfranchising ordinary Australians by seriously excessive political correctness in many areas, attacks on freedom of speech and freedom of the press, fiscal recklessness, hatred of wealth producers, empowering unions against the national interest etc etc. Is it wishful thinking on my part, or perhaps Australians are seeing Labor/Greens in their true colours for the first time?

It's all because of taxes!

I keeping saying this but no one seems to be listening.

I'm starting to think I should change my name to Robinson Crusoe!

I may be mistaken, but, isn't the leader the one that calls the shots. Labor is a toxic brand at the moment. This started with Rudd being axed by Paul Howe of AWU fame amongst others. This was the first mistake, Julia was the second. There is no scenario that I can think of that could possibly lead Labor to victory (of any sort) by years end.
Perhaps there is one thing that possibly could save some Labor seats. This is Liberal party IR policy. If they try to compete with Asian labour, Australia's living standard will need to drop dramatically. That together with self imposed austerity measures and I fear for Australia economically.

Robinson/opinion yes it is because of tax, but you don't go far enough. Many are way past that, & wondering why the tax.

Of course some of it is obvious with their incestuous relationship with the greens. That they are a bunch of tarts, who would sell anything to buy a vote is obviously part of the problem, leading to green taxes. Electricity prices anyone?

But then we have those other taxes brought in to try to save that silly little boy, pretending to have some idea of treasury business. Swannies carbon dioxide tax is part greenie price, & part "Oh my god, where did all the money go" tax.

Not enough to save his bacon with that one, well lets piss off the goose, & bugger the golden egg, that's too slow to save Swanny. If only he had been taught arithmetic at school, he wouldn't have done it, but arithmetic is a bit hard for our worlds greatest what ever he is, so we got the mining tax.

So Crusoe old mate, you had better start running to catch up, we're all very mad with them, for more than just tax reasons, although it was a good start.

Some say Rudd, and some say Gillard. This morning someone said Shorten. But isn't it the case that the Rudd/Gillard Labor Government has trashed the ALP brand, possibly for a generation? And didn't Shorten's hand help pull the chair out from under Rudd before holding it for Gillard as she sat down?
I don't see much to like in that lot, and the Greens will struggle without Bob.
Hopefully Abbott is not as bad as some would have us believe because unless something drastic happens, he looks to be holding a lay-down misere.

Mr Opinion, hear you loud and clear mate. However, as Hasbeen observes, it truly has gone waaaay beyond that now. The attack on 457 visas is just the latest in gutter politics from labour at the moment. Can't wait to see the next effort.

Thing is, polls only allow you to count the bodies afterwards, they give no information on how the wounds were inflicted.

While it may well be true that opinion started running against Rudd before the spill, the fact remains that there was a considerable amount of backstabbing under way before the dip. Multiple stories hit the press as to Mr Rudd's management style, driven by a bunch of people whose feelings had clearly been hurt by it.

Cause and effect quickly became intertwined and indistinguishable, leading to the inevitable steps-of-the-forum moment.

It was then that it became clear to the public that the Labor Party had reached a point where it consisted of absolutely nothing but power-blocs and influence-peddlers. Ms Gillard proceeded to ram that point home at every opportunity, by making decisions in a values-free zone, with no reference to Labor's traditional tenets or ethos.

For a while, I convinced myself that having to work with a coalition of rag-tag also-rans was a major factor in her inability to arrive at a single policy that was free from artifice and compromise. Sadly, recent weeks have demonstrated that the teeth-grinding clumsiness evident in her every move is in fact her very own.

My view is that blame cannot be ascribed to one more than the other. One way or another, Ms Gillard is a product of current Labor thinking, and therefore their responsibility. But her contribution to the problems that now face the Party is also substantial.

Mr Rudd is irrelevant in the current picture. He might well turn out to be Labor's very own twice-rising soufflé, but not for a good few years yet. Unless he is tripped up by his own ambition - which is of course always a contender - he will do well to sit on the sidelines and allow the well-poisoned chalice to be sipped by a few others, before attempting resurrection.

Prompete

'Can't wait to see the next effort.'

Tonight Carr, after he had appointed Obeid to his NSW cabinet, blaming Morris Iemma for promoting Obeid to a 'position of influence'. Apparently Morris is the cause of the strife in the NSW labor party, according to Carr. Nothing to do with him.

I find it odd that many Liberal supporters don't like Abbott yet will still vote for his Party but the media insist that many Labor supporters will only vote for their Party if Rudd is made the leader.

It makes no sense and is simply the result of highly partisan media self-interest and their constant obsession with polls.

Rudd was dumped mainly due to a deliberate media campaign of destabilisation that made his position untenable and now they are trying to resurrect him.

Obeid, Thompson, Slipper, naive in 30's, AWU, pink bats, gw scam, so compassionate that idiotic changes to border control leads to a thousand plus deaths, failed mining tax, slimy deals with Greens and independants, trying to shut down free speach and all this is just over 5 years. Why is Labour toxic? It does not take much thought.

As a long term coalition voter it's worth remembering that there have been times when the coalition has been on the nose and the swings have been against the coalition. Right now it looks like Labor is on the way out but that could change in a term or too. There is not a lot of sign that the coalition/LNP governments which are replacing Labor are determined to do things all that differently.

My guess is the place where they will do differently is that they will come in with smaller deficits (or bring in surpluses) but at a massive cost to many in the community (hitting middle income earners as Labor do). As with Labor mates, family members and party faithful will be rewarded at the publics expense.

As with Labor ideology will drive some decisions more than reality (who really believes that outsourcing government work or selling assets results in better outcomes for the public).

The opportunity is there for the coalition/LNP to set a new standard of honesty and accountability but so far it appears that opportunity is being dismissed in the rush to get to the spoils of government.

I'll be glad to see Labor gone but wish I could look forward to that meaning government which served the community rather than just a more competent mob of self servers being in power.

R0bert

RObert where have you been hiding mate? The unions, particularly the public service ones hate Newman with a passion, so he must be doing something right.

I reckon Abbott will be similar. My main worry with him is that he may be too kind too those who need a thorough kicking.

Wobbles you don't have to like someone to respect them, & believe they will do a good job. I did not like Keating, & I don't think he liked us, but he did try to improve our economy, which would be good for us. In this he was not a real lefty.

It is becoming more obvious all the time that the real lefty, academia, & lefty elites really dislike us commoners. They obviously think we have got it too good, & have become a bit uppity. Professors can not stand the thought that a mere tradesman might earn more than they do.

It is the effect of this part of the Labor party which is most dangerous to the Oz people, & It's Gillard's promoting of their global warming scam, & the carbon tax that got her where she is today. She deserves everything she is getting. Compared to her, Abbott is a saint.

I always believe that most people vote for the party they want to lead, and more so, the leader of that party, than the local member they follow and support.

The problem with labor, esspecially federal labor, is that regardless of who they voted for, the elected leader is nothing more than a puppet, who's strings are pulled by people rarely mentioned in the mix. The faceless men, as they are often referred to as.

The other problem with labor, at a state level, is the carnage they have caused to almost every, if not all states they have governed, as their approach, along with that of federal labor, seems to be one of, it doesn't matter, we will just throw more money at it and hope it goes away.

Well, that works for a while, at least until the money has run out.

Now if we look back at history, labor have left massive debt, debt that was paid back before mining was the be all end all, as it is today, as back in the 90's, mining was something that happened in the bush, not a way of life as it is for many today, or the life line that it provides for our economy.

We now find ourselves in a position where not only do we have all these failed labor policies, illegals being the worst, but we also have no money left to waste, and the proposed MRRT has been a dismal flop, yet labor have spent the 2 billion it was supposed to raise, casting yet more doubt on their ability to manage our country/states.

While labor say they are the best economic global managers, it's not that hard when the others are in REALLY POOR SHAPE

It's a bit like being the champion C- grader a great achievement, but means nothing when you play at A-grade level.

Needless to say, people everywhere are finally starting to see through the cracks and, if the libs had a leader with a strong track record, labor would be lucky to hold any seats at all come September.

Dear Hasbeen,

George III was kicked out of North America because of taxes.

Louis XVI was kicked out of Versailles because of taxes.

So come September, I think we should kick Gillard out of Canberra because of taxes!

It didn't help that Gillard told a bold faced porkie to the voters, and screwed them over. This one Juliar wears by herself.

And yet the carbon tax was a behaviour changing tax rather than a revenue raiser... Businesses whose competitiveness was affected were compensated. The vast majority of income earners were compensated. But Abbott got a 'free run' in the monopoly mass media for years on end - with very little scrutiny... Even when the tax was implemented and the economy didn't 'collapse' - even then there was no scrutiny of Abbott. For instance - when Abbott blames cost of living pressures on the carbon tax - it is a blatant lie. In fact the bipartisan commitment to privatisation was a big part of the problem. 'Gold plating' also costs - But perhaps it demands stronger action promoting micro-renewables on a mass scale... Gillard's mistake was waiting a whole year before actually implementing the carbon tax - A year which was used for damaging and continual speculation...

Let's be clear - the Liberals want to take us down the "Tea Party Road" - with fanatical opposition to tax and to the size of government. And for this it will be the poor and vulnerable that will suffer the most. There is an article on Daniel Mannix today at OLO - and I might add - although I am a liberal democratic socialist - I will say of Mannix that he had a kind of commitment to social justice. But whatever his prior background Abbott is jettisoning all this. He just wants the top job "whatever it takes". And if it means "Americanising" Australian politics - There is virtually no-one in the monopoly mass media doing the job of providing real scrutiny. Instead all we get is leadership speculation - and shallow and prejudiced 'sound bites' - eg: 'cash splash' (a shallow term; but effective in giving an impression of economic irresponsibility) - intended to wear Labor support down by virtue of attrition. This is not a true liberal and pluralist democracy. The media has abrogated its role - enthralled to a handful of billionaires who are obviously in it for the power - not for the profits... It is a sham.

Actually Tristan, the main issue was that Gillard lied.

Your claim that businesses whose competitiveness was threatened is a porkie. Only a few large businesses with unionised labour received anything. No small businesses received any where near what the tax cost them irrespective of whether they exported or competed with imports.

The carbon tax is now starting to bite, and people are losing their livelyhoods, and Juliar's / labor's habit of spinning so far from the truth means that now the only people listening are from the rabid left.

What doesn't Tristan (11.39am) get? The voters will select Abbott and the LNP because the voters want they are offering.

If Rudd had delivered what he promised (Howard-Lite, still a fiscal conservative); if Gillard had delivered what SHE promised, then maybe the ALP'd be making every post a winner.

No-one's listening to Labor anymore because they are liars, and Tristan is telling us we should fear Abbott because he will do what he reckons he will!

Up here in Qld, Newman is respected and very very popular BECAUSE he's the real deal. TA too we hope! Cheers.