The National Forum   Donate   Your Account   On Line Opinion   Forum   Blogs   Polling   About   
The Forum - On Line Opinion's article discussion area



Syndicate
RSS/XML


RSS 2.0

Main Articles General

Sign In      Register

The Forum > Article Comments > Australia’s next treasurer emerges from the shadows > Comments

Australia’s next treasurer emerges from the shadows : Comments

By Alan Austin, published 6/3/2013

The philosophy of the man who would be Australia’s next treasurer now revealed.

  1. Pages:
  2. 1
  3. 2
  4. 3
  5. ...
  6. 6
  7. 7
  8. 8
  9. Page 9
  10. 10
  11. 11
  12. 12
  13. All
Hi SM,

Thanks for this.

Re: “The US economy is now starting to take off …”

Not really, SM.

Latest growth figures from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis are extremely disappointing. GDP only expanded 0.10% in the 2012 fourth quarter.

That’s way below previous figures and lower than most other countries. Australia grew six times that rate.

Charts here: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

Re: “on the back of the low dollar, low energy costs, and a flexible job market.”

Yes, the US has a low dollar, low energy costs and good labour freedom. But these are not helping, are they? Other factors are operating much more powerfully.

Analysis here: http://www.heritage.org/index/ranking

Re: “Australia with a high dollar, soaring energy costs and a increasingly rigid job market …”

No, not really. The high dollar is good for the majority. Refer question 5, above.

No, energy costs are not soaring. Some have increased, but you still have cheap petrol by world standards. The job market remains almost freest in the world, despite marginal tightening last year.

Re: “is beginning to see falling productivity, increasing unemployment and falling profits leading to falling tax revenues.”

Nonsense, SM.

Go to the Productivity chart here: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/productivity

It should open to show 2002 to 2013. You will see a surge in productivity in Australia over the last six quarters – to an all-time high of 164.82. That surge is not seen widely elsewhere. The US has been flat, Germany and France have been in decline.

Then expand the timeline to 1996 – 2013. You will see productivity is much higher now than at any time during the Howard years.

Now go to the Unemployment chart: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/unemployment-rate

Unemployment peaked at 5.8 in 2009 and 2010, during the GFC.

The rate has since fallen to between 5.1 and 5.4 where it has oscillated for the last 19 months.

Yes, tax revenues fell in late 2012 as profits fell. But with the surge in exports in the 2012 last quarter - strongest in the world - this should be rectified rapidly.

Re: “bloated civil service”, how do you measure this, SM?

Cheers, AA
Posted by Alan Austin, Tuesday, 12 March 2013 5:49:36 PM
Find out more about this user Recommend this comment for deletion Return to top of page Return to Forum Main Page Copy comment URL to clipboard
I used to be a bit proud that, as a former factory hand and labourer, I got published in a variety of forums: Quadrant magazine, academia, the odd newsppaper, and OLO.

That was until read Alan Austin and realised it was not that hard.

I dont know why anyone would ever question him; he is beyond approach and knows everything.
Posted by Chris Lewis, Tuesday, 12 March 2013 7:14:10 PM
Find out more about this user Recommend this comment for deletion Return to top of page Return to Forum Main Page Copy comment URL to clipboard
Could you indicate whether any of these are important, Indi? And then add any other criteria important to you not on this list:
Alan Austin,
1 to 45 are important. None are in actual fact addressed by the federal Australian Labor Governments or do not get close enough attention..
Just ask around, ask the people on the receiving end. If you really want to ask relevant questions then you must ask them. A list of obvious issues is not a list at all, as it goes without saying therefore requires no answers.
You should ask which of the points on your list are getting competent attention & are resolved. It's like saying that all the pay rates for public servants are freely available. Try & ask how much they actually cost us.
Posted by individual, Tuesday, 12 March 2013 9:18:07 PM
Find out more about this user Recommend this comment for deletion Return to top of page Return to Forum Main Page Copy comment URL to clipboard
Hi again Individual,

Thanks for this.

Re: “1 to 45 are important.”

Yes. Knew we would agree there.

Re: “None are in actual fact addressed by the federal Australian Labor Governments or do not get close enough attention.”

Yes and no, Indi. All are impacted by federal governments. We may certainly question whether governments have done enough or not enough or too much in any area.

Re: “Just ask around, ask the people on the receiving end ...”

Correct, Indi. We certainly should. But who should we ask? What receiving end?

The point of this article was to illustrate the two points about Australia that are glaringly obvious from abroad:

1. you have the best economic management of any country in the world by the length of the longest straight.

Canada and Switzerland jostle for 2nd and 3rd. Australia is at the finish line before either has rounded the first bend. Refer question 6, above.

2. you have by far the worst media in the free world – also by a mile.

On all 45 of those criteria, Indi, abundant information is available. But you will only find distortions of it in your mainstream media. Or complete omissions where that suits the narrative the media have decided upon. Or blatant fabrications.

If you can turn off the radio and stop reading newspapers you will soon find valid information. And a narrative that accords with reality.

Pretty sure that will cheer you up, Indi. Your life is not as bleak as it might have been had you been managed by anybody else in the world, or anybody else in Australia’s past.

Cheers, AA
Posted by Alan Austin, Tuesday, 12 March 2013 10:14:23 PM
Find out more about this user Recommend this comment for deletion Return to top of page Return to Forum Main Page Copy comment URL to clipboard
AA,

Cherry picking? the growth in the 4th quarter of last year was an anomaly for various reasons. The growth in 2012 in the US for 2012 was more than double that of Australia and is forecast to rise. Australia's growth in 2013 is forecast to drop further.

Unemployment has been slowly ticking up over the last year, with the only mitigating factor being the dropping participation rate. The US unemployment rate while still higher is dropping continuously.

As far as Labor rigidity, this is from the world bank report:

"The main area of concern for Australia is the rigidity of its labor market (42nd). Indeed, the business community cites the labor regulations as being the most problematic factor for doing business, ahead of red tape."

While productivity has grown, it is comparatively far slower than the rest of the world. While productivity grew steadily under Howard it was stagnant for most of the Labor government.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/treasury/productivity-gap-holding-back-growth-as-survey-ranks-australia-second-last/story-fn59nsif-1226439881599

Overall Comparatively the outlook for the US is for improvement, whilst for Australia it is not.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Wednesday, 13 March 2013 4:22:32 AM
Find out more about this user Recommend this comment for deletion Return to top of page Return to Forum Main Page Copy comment URL to clipboard
Hi again SM,

Thanks for this further input.

Pretty sure that article in The Australian was written last August based on data from the first half of the year.

Also, the World Bank report uses data from early in 2012. No?

The comments in the article here and subsequent discussion are based on the quite extraordinary figures for the fourth quarter of 2012 for Australia. And on the relatively poor performance over the same quarter for much of the rest of ther world, including the USA.

No-one predicted the world to go backwards as appears to have happened. And it seems few predicted Australia's extraordinary surge would continue.

Perhaps we should wait for the next World Bank report based on more recent information.

Cheers, SM.

AA
Posted by Alan Austin, Wednesday, 13 March 2013 4:42:16 AM
Find out more about this user Recommend this comment for deletion Return to top of page Return to Forum Main Page Copy comment URL to clipboard
  1. Pages:
  2. 1
  3. 2
  4. 3
  5. ...
  6. 6
  7. 7
  8. 8
  9. Page 9
  10. 10
  11. 11
  12. 12
  13. All

About Us :: Search :: Discuss :: Feedback :: Legals :: Privacy