Hi again Shadow Minister,

So which is the outlier on the US GDP graph, do you reckon - the excellent 3.1% growth in the 3rd quarter or the miserable 0.1% in the 4th?

How can we tell?

More soon ...

Cheers, Joe.

Alan A

AA,

So which is the outlier on the US GDP graph, do you reckon - the excellent 3.1% or the 0.1%? To anyone with a smidgeon of statistics or economics the answer is easy:- Probably both!

This is why no one uses statistics without reading some of the background information. Your cut and paste economics is reminiscent of our esteemed Whine Swan who wouldn't doesn't know his Rs from his elbow.

Hi again SM,

Yes, agree about long-term charts and reading widely.

Re: “The cost of electricity, and gas have sky rocketed.”

Correct. But not everywhere at the same rate. Rises have been less in Victoria and WA than most of the rest of the world. SA and NSW are about average.

Australia as whole has had lower cost increases than the UK and Europe, though higher than Japan. The sudden downward curves in the consumption and cost in other countries as a result of carbon taxes is intriguing to observe.

Will this happen in Australia also? Probably.

Some useful charts here: http://www.rba.gov.au/foi/disclosure-log/pdf/101115.pdf

Re productivity: “most of the gains came from the mining industry, and reduction in full time employment.”

Probably correct, SM. But they are still productivity gains, aren’t they? So it’s not true to say “Australia with a high dollar soaring energy costs and a increasingly rigid job market is beginning to see falling productivity”, is it?

Re: “As far as unemployment goes, while there have been fluctuations, the trend is undeniably upwards.”

Not sure about this, SM. Which data are you analysing?

Consider this: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/unemployment-rate

If we look at the entire period of the current ALP Government, the linear regression depends on when we start, doesn’t it?

If we start from March 2008, it is a steep upwards line; from mid 2009 it is a downwards line; from April or May 2010, it’s flat; from May 2012 it’s upwards; and from October 12 it’s flat.

So we can take our pick, I suppose. And that’s without identifying outliers due to floods and other one-off events.

But it remains true that unemployment has oscillated within the narrow 4.9% – 5.5% band for the last 38 months. No? So pretty much flat.

The matter of honesty, SM, is precisely what motivated this article in the first place, and other assignments here on economics and politics.

Would you agree Australians are poorly served by the media and some political parties in this regard?

Have a shot at this quiz, SM, arising in part from our discussion:

http://newmatilda.com/2013/03/15/could-you-be-treasurer-take-quiz

Cheers, AA