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The Forum > Article Comments > Evaluating the world risk factors for Australian financial markets for 2013 > Comments

Evaluating the world risk factors for Australian financial markets for 2013 : Comments

By Vince Hooper, published 7/1/2013

While Australia has enjoyed a remarkable escape from international financial turmoil there are certainly signs that the economy is exposed to both critical domestic and international risk factors.

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I agree with the sentiment in this post.

Australia's private debt to GDP ratio is closing in on 150%, totally unsustainable an obvious serious correction in housing value is on the cards (20/30%) at least. Given our big four banks account for 45% of the ASX a major correction in the stock market is inevitable. Timing, who's to say!

The US 'Fiscal Cliff' may have been glossed over but their debt ceiling has not, this will be the next false flag economic play out in the US, it will have little impact but the impact will be greater. US unemployment is closer to 22% rather than the touted 7 odd percent. Talk about a nation in debt deflation and decline.

The iron ore spot price will wane and Fortescue Metals and others will be hard pressed to remain solvent in the next 24 months.

Europe is harder to predict, France and Germany will begin to join the other stressed fiscal entities in Europe and it is only a matter of time before the ECB and the major EU banks continue to kick the proverbial can down the road some more.

Socially, Greece and Spain, perhaps Italy are headed for a very bad landing, China will continue to soften, and Australia's terms of trade will continue to decline in favour of other emergent economies (see Africa and South America).

Overall the picture is a continued slow debt deflation scenario that does not bode well for the Aus. Markets will continue to rally and the herd mentality will play a big role but it will only take a fracture here or there for the whole deck of cards to collapse.

Wayne Swan and the current Labour Govt have a growing level of debt, currently low in global terms, but one that will wreak havoc on taxpayers in the years to come.

In summary, the ride will be rough and energy will continue to play a significant role in the overall 'health' of the global economy.

Not quite time to lock-and-load, but be prepared for a very messy fiscal year ahead.
Posted by Geoff of Perth, Tuesday, 8 January 2013 2:14:26 AM
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