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The Forum > Article Comments > How unconventional oil changes the world > Comments

How unconventional oil changes the world : Comments

By James Stafford, published 14/12/2012

Michael Levi from the Council on Foreign Relations thinks oil prices could drop much further, amongst other things.

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Warmair, we couldn't even build the factories to produce all the "alternate" power generating gear we would need in 10 years. This would accelerate as we closed real power plants, & depended on the Micky Mouse occasional power resulting from the closure of those power plants.

Just in passing warmair, where do you teach?
Posted by Hasbeen, Sunday, 16 December 2012 9:58:30 AM
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I vouch for solar. I do not pay for power, between solar and batteries i am alt power 24/7. During the day excess goes to the grid. Hasbeen has aged ideas.
Posted by 579, Sunday, 16 December 2012 10:39:54 AM
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Some years ago, the CIRSO, came up with a solar powered hydrogen producer, the size of a microwave, that would reportedly produce enough hydrogen to power the family wagon; and or, the daily commute.
Conventional engines, with just a little re-plumbing, will hum away happily, on Hydrogen.
The old method of producing hydrogen, relied on, [catalyticly assisted,] cracking the water molecule.
A method when modernised, will likely replace refineries, which crack the hydrocarbon, in a process, which is a least as hot, and produces products far more volatile than Hydrogen.
Burning hydrogen in either conventional engines or fuel cells, reunites it with oxygen to make water again; meaning, as long as the sun shines, we can make as much as we want and for far less to us than the current price of transport fuel.
Unconventional oil, serves nobody save the demonstrably dominating, monolithic massive, four trillion a year plus oil industry, which we've become far too reliant on.
The oil industry will end, long before we run out of oil, by pricing itself out of the energy market!
Look, there are numerous and endlessly sustainable, far less costly alternatives.
The stone age didn't end for the want of stone!
Large scale algae production, would save both the Murray and all who depend on it; given, algae production uses just 2-3% of the water of traditional irrigation, and waste or salt water is just fine.
We can and should convert all our biological waste, into bladder stored methane, and use that to power our homes, utilising Aussie invented ceramic fuel cells, which would cost far less than the current 40 grand, with economies of scale.
Keeping this methane from adding to the atmosphere, a very useful goal, on its own!
Hydrogen production as already outlined, completes the picture!
Why we are drilling for oil? I mean, every off the shelf rig costs at least a billion, and money better spent!?
However, if we are to continue to drill, shouldn't we at least focus on products, than require little or no carbon creating refining?
Rhrosty.
Posted by Rhrosty, Sunday, 16 December 2012 11:52:21 AM
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Rhrosty,

Transperth buses converted 2 of their buses to run on hydrogen. After a brief period they announced the trial was being discontinued as it proved too costly. They didn't announce any further details - like in what area the cost was incurred, or the price differential which led to their decision.

Have seen no mention of wind power as an alternative either, yet these windmills cover vast areas in the U.S., and other parts of the world -even being built at sea. Have to believe they offer another way to offset use of oil, and are not there purely for decoration. I understand a whole community in Arizona is powered this way.
Posted by worldwatcher, Sunday, 16 December 2012 12:34:05 PM
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worldwatcher, Rhosty, 579 and warmair,

You are all without doubt, the best equipped people in relation to data that I’ve ever come across. Data is in your heads and at your fingertips. I don’t know your ages however; you have all clearly invested a great deal of time and effort into acquiring the data you have available to you and that which you articulate.

Sometimes I look at your posts and say wow! I can’t possibly compete with that. On other instances I read your posts and cannot for the life of me, make any sense whatsoever.

This is clearly a dichotomy that needs further investigation because it does not make any sense.

What does occur to me is that the data you present clearly has some meaning to you, even though idiots like me cannot make any sense out of it, so here is an explanation that might assist all of us.

There are three layers of the structure of all things we know. At the lowest level is data. Data is everything that is stored, in books on line or in people’s heads; it is just that, data.

The next level in the hierarchy is information. Information is simply data that is topic specific. A distillation of data that is context sensitive.

After this we have knowledge. Knowledge is an adjective, a doing word, an actionable something. It is the application of information into an action or result.

This is where you clearly have some difficulty because you have no idea how to apply the data that is in your heads, you cannot convert data into context sensitive information and you cannot make knowledge out of the stuff going around in your heads.

This is very sad because I’m convinced that there is some form of intelligence between your ears, I just can’t put my finger on it.

The best advice I can offer is for you all to stop reading and start thinking. Start with reading your posts and asking yourselves, If I were someone other than myself, what on earth would I make of that
Posted by spindoc, Sunday, 16 December 2012 3:11:16 PM
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Well an interesting lot of posts.
One point which no one has made is that the shale oil projects are in
reallity a Ponzi scheme. Because the wells have a decline rate of
40% to 60% a year, they have to keep drilling full time and pouring
money into the system. The number of drilling rigs employed is falling
and that is why shale oil is about to start declining.
I suggest you check the financial standing of the shale companies.
BHP got out and Cheasapeake has had problems.

What many do not realise is that the break even point of a well is $85
on average. As conventional oil declines the amount of shale oil will
become a greater proportion. This why much of a fall in price is
virtually impossible.

We are currently paying around $110 a barrel and I would be very
surprised to see any sort of fall in that.
Posted by Bazz, Sunday, 16 December 2012 4:19:55 PM
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