Thanks leckos, you have articulated exactly what I wanted those posting and reading on this site to understand.

Unfortunately, Curmudgeon is a 'lion' of the peak oil denial camp and as someone with only a sorry BSc (as he describes it), I would think that he would look at the facts rather than spruik his warped sense of reality, based on his biased journalistic existence.

Curmudgeon should focus on the 'rate' of oil production rather than his myopic and cornucopian belief in 'she'll be right, we have plenty of cheap energy yet to be found or in reserve'.

As a journalist for the AFR, perhaps he would be better articulating the reality of our current and future Australian economic position.

Australia is headed into a massive recession starting, oh about now, just about every economic fact and figure is showing the growing decline of our fiscal standing and our economy is in the early stages of a free-fall. You won't hear this from Curmudgeon because he can't see the woods for the trees. He is exactly the same when it comes to energy, he just does not get it.

Perhaps he would be better off reading a little more widely and doing some real scientific analysis, his posts might then reveal a more moderate and realistic expose of reality, instead of the 'it's all good' mantra we have got used to hearing from him.

Geoff of Perth and leckos,

Your “link wars” are so infantile, why you don’t try to put a case together without batting people over the head with your favorite, narrow and selective links. Surely you are both old enough to read available information from a broad spectrum of sources and make your own case.

You have this parasitic relationship with someone else’s opinions, isn’t it time you formed your own?

Thanks spindoc for your input.

I could list hundreds of links that demonstrate 'peak oil', that being the flow rate of 'conventional' oil is now in the process, is in the past, or is about to decline.

There are huge reserves of oil left in the gound, but it is not the light sweet crude our economy is used to having, thus, economic growth, based on this mantra is totally flawed.

I am also of the opinion, the tight gas 'boom' we are currently witnessing, is just that, a boom, and with all boom's come busts and the bust is not far away. Current tight gas production is un-economic at current prices, the current investment is a ponzi scheme.

You cannot retain the level of historic economic growth we have grown accustomed to in the last 100 years, based on a model or assumptions made in the past. The new frontier, if you are happy to call it that will be restrained by a fossil fuel industry that now needs to expend more and more money, time and related resources on remaining oil and gas that returns a lower 'energy return on energy investment'. You don't need to be a genius to work out we are all on a merri-go-round to higher energy costs, lower productivity, lower growth, lower per-capita wealth and a myriad of other indicators that make the article and Curmudgeon's assumptions unachievable or extreme at the very least.

Physics always triumphs economics, it's just that those who spruik the 'cool aid' economic mainstream model don't get reality and I have come to the conclusion, never will.

I would bet that Curmudgeon would think it wise for a young couple with say $40,000 in the bank, should consider going out to buy a house given the low current 'cash' rate. Lets see in 12 or 24 months time whether or not this would have been good advice. My guess, very bad, lost their $40,000, lost about 40-50% equity in their 'new' home and probably lost their jobs as well.

Let's see, history will be the judge!

In 1985 we were in a wildcatter partnership in Texas with 28 producing wells. We sold out our share in this for an amount calculated on the then $18 U.S. per barrel, and thought we'd agreed a good price for our share, especially when the price dropped back a few months later after we'd sold to $11 per barrel.

However I haven't posted this comment to discuss oil in depth, but to ask if any member of the Forum has any knowledge about the battery invented by Tesla which negated any use of oil. Upon his death mostly all his records were seized by the American government, and to date have never been made public. Imagine how much longer oil would last if just all the cars and trucks in the world used Tesla's invention

leckos
for heaven go and look at the chart.. then sit and think. Ask yourself what has happened in the oil industry since 2009.. vast below sea recoveries and na major revolution in the industry.. so to bleat about standard depletion on existing discoveries in a 2009 grasph is absurd.. And it is even worse when you talk about unconventional oil which is straight price dependent.. it has nothing to do with reserves.. of which there are trillions of barrels.. the Canadian oil sands will produce if the price is right, and keep expanding production. You will also find that the OPEC oil production simply hasn't fallen away as the chart states. Production is being managed to keep the price stable.

Not only is the chart obviously wrong, even if the article gives semi-plausible reasons for those lines (to those who don't know about recent history), its out of date. Geoff of Perth linked out of data peak oil propaganda and expected people to be fooled by it.

What is it about peak oil that people must cling to it. Its like dealing with creationists..

“Geoff of Perth, It’s always a good idea not to link out-dated propaganda.”

Yes Mark you are quite right.

It’s just such a pity you fail to heed your own advice!

Let me surmise, you work for the AFR, therefore you are at the very least at the behest of the big banks (somewhat 40% plus of the total ASX value in today’s dollar terms), you write oped on behalf of your major sponsors and those that keep you employed at the AFR. This equates to be big energy, big pharma, big advertisers, big anyone willing to spend significant funds to keep the AFR and therefore yourself employed! Fortunately for you no pecuniary interest involved!

You tend to tow the ‘party line’, that is: keep the growth is good mantra in the forefront of your reporting, never mind the reality that is our economy, god forbid we upset the 1% and the sheeple continue to get sucked up into the growth is good mantra, let’s all get a mortgage, borrow some more money, hock ourselves to the eyeballs (never mind Australian private debt now exceeds GDP), but don’t tell the sheeple that!

You wax and wane over government policy, Reserve Bank interest rate cuts and provide missive that is just that little bit shy of directing the sheeple to do something direct, this always gives you your out, especially when you have made a bad call.

Ironic that the Reserve Bank and APRA failed to alert investors and the general public that in 2008, 2 of the 4 big banks needed the US Fed to bail them out, we are now about to see all of our 4 big banks face the iron plate at the next BBQ.

Ironic again that the MSM, including the AFR, continue to spruik the Australian economy is immune to the rest of the world’s ills, what a joke.

We are current where the US economy sat in late 2006, the ASX is at an almost near high, inflation is under control and the property markets is sound. Cough.

Mark tell the truth, honesty=freedom.