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The Forum > Article Comments > How to build a climate agreement from the bottom up > Comments

How to build a climate agreement from the bottom up : Comments

By Matteo Gagliardi, published 10/12/2012

A flexible agreement which allows countries the freedom to set their emission reduction goals is likely to take over the Kyoto Protocol, but it will not in itself solve climate change.

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International action was always going to be very difficult.. if anyone can think of any way to get China seriously involved, for example, then let's hear it.. otherwise the only plausible policy response is adaptation, if and when anything does actually happen that requires an economic response..
Posted by Curmudgeon, Monday, 10 December 2012 10:06:09 AM
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"Doha climate talks end with a wimper."
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/doha-climate-talks-end-with-a-whimper-20121209-2b34i.html

It’s the economics, stupid!

For 20 years the UN process has been trying to get international agreement to targets, timetables, carbon pricing, UN taxation powers, and UN control.

It’s failed!

20 years of delay so far – and counting (slow death preferred to removal of life support, sudden death and admission of failure)

The wise heads have been saying all along “It’s all about economics”

But the ‘Progressives’ would not listen. The ‘Progressives’ ridiculed these people and anyone who didn’t accept the ‘Progressives’ beliefs and proposed solutions.

The ‘Progressives’ want to talk about their projections of impacts in 100, 200 years and more from now. They wanted irrational policies like carbon pricing and renewable energy. And they did all they could to thwart rollout and development of the least cost way to reduce emissions, nuclear power.

The Kyoto Protocol is next to useless. It was clear to most rational people all along that such policies could not work. Despite that, the unelected bureaucrats of the EU and the Australian Leftist government have managed to get their way and force through an extension of the Kyoto Protocol and agreement to pay $10 billion per year, down form $100 billion per year, to corrupt, incompetent governments to spend mostly on bribery.

The EU carbon price has been a failure.

Lord Monkton says about Australia and the Australian carbon tax:
>"The fools: In this category, Australia stands alone. Its absurd carbon dioxide tax is almost 50 times more expensive than letting global warming happen and adapting in a focused way to its consequences."<
http://www.cfact.org/2012/12/05/the-climate-camel-going-nowhere-uncomfortably/

But really, the ‘Progressives’ need to take a really good, hard, impartial look at what they’ve been advocating: i.e. economically irrational policies. They are not acceptable.

My advice to the ‘Progressives’. Start listening and stop telling!
Posted by Peter Lang, Monday, 10 December 2012 10:11:25 AM
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>“Whatever the new agreement is, it needs to do three things: raise ambition, foster widespread participation and ensure compliance.”<

This is a wrong approach, IMO. There is a much better way

The solution is easy. But the ‘Progressives’ are going to have to eat humble pie. That will be very hard for them. They need to admit their responsibility for global emissions being 10% to 20% higher than they would have been if not for them blocking progress for the past 50 years. They need to confess their sins, their repugnant moral values and do their penance. :)

The self claimed but wrongly named ‘Progressives’ must acknowledge they made a really bad mistake blocking development of nuclear power for the past 50 years. Now they must become enthusiastic advocates of cheap nuclear power. They need to spread the word and convince their ilk – the eco-warriors and other ‘Progressives’. They need to convert their comrades.

They also need to stop advocating economically irrational policies like carbon pricing and renewable energy. It must be clear by now to all but the zealots, that these irrational policies will never get wide support. They cannot be sustained. Kyoto is an excellent example of how economically irrational policies will not last. In ‘Progressives’ language, they are not sustainable.
Posted by Peter Lang, Monday, 10 December 2012 10:33:32 AM
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We are on target to achieve 4-6C increase by the end of this century. The last time we had a temperature rise in this order of magnitude, all life on planet earth, was very nearly eliminated.
Imagine cyclone Yasi, as an everyday normal event, for our tropical climes?
Tornadoes, with destructive forces far exceeding Hiroshima or Nagasaki, that are a weekly event in down-town Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth.
This is not new territory, we've been there before, some ninety million years ago, and what I'm describing, the normal daily event.
The irony is, we can and should use the opportunities that change usually produces, to improve our own living standards/financial returns and living conditions.
Change can be for the better for almost everybody.
And we don't have to kill the fossil fuel industry, just slow it down, so as an assisted nature can compensate for it and start to draw-down the greenhouse gas build up, which now seriously threatens all life!
What can we do?
Well we can set aside our objections, to nuclear power.
It's Co2 emission that actually threaten us with annihilation, not an improbable mutual destruction nuclear war, or another Chernobyl, as disastrous as that was for far too many!
We need to led by an example, that even the poorest nations on the planet can afford to adopt!
We could also mass produce thorium or pebble reactors and lease them to those who can't yet afford to buy them?
We can set aside our objection to hydro power, even where that may threaten one or two species, in the knowledge and expectation that the alternative or do nothing different approach has far more serious Implications for all species.
The very best solutions, like biogas powered micro power stations, will be the ones that walk out the door.
We have to stop being stupid and or listening to stupid people, with their own destructive hidden agenda!?
Rhrosty.
Posted by Rhrosty, Monday, 10 December 2012 10:44:48 AM
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The biosphere can accommodate rapid global warming (especially from the cold temperatures Earth is at in its current 'Coldhouse phase'.

Rethinking species’ ability to cope with rapid climate change CHRISTIAN HOF, IRINA LEVINSKY, MIGUEL B. ARAU ´ J O and CARSTEN RAHBEK, Global Change Biology (2011) 17, 2987–2990, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02418.x
http://192.38.112.111/pdf-reprints/Hof_GCB_2011.pdf

Recent geophysical studies challenge the view that the speed of current and projected climate change in core data, Steffensen et al. (2008) showed that local temperature changed up to 4 deg C/yr near the end of the last glacial period (14 700 BP).Their results revealed that ‘polar atmospheric circulation can shift in 1–3 years, resulting in decadal- to centennial-scale changes from cold stadials to warm interstadials’ associated with Greenland temperature changes of 10 deg C(Steffensen et al., 2008).

i.e. 40 deg C/decade.
Contrast:

Earth’s mean temperature has increased by 0.74 deg C from 1906 to 2005, and projections of global mean temperature increase for the end of the century (2090–2099) range from 1.8 to 4 deg C (IPCC, 2007).

i.e. IPCC warns of ~ 0.2 – 0.4 deg/decade
Thus, the biosphere has accommodated global climate warming that was 100 times higher than the IPCC’s warnings of “rapid” global warming over the next century.

See also:
Rapid Younger Dryas – Holocene transition recorded in marine sediments offshore Newfoundland

The transition from the Younger Dryas into the warmer Holocene is clearly reflected in the record as a sudden increase in productivity of both foraminifera and diatoms, with a relative increase in warmer water diatom species, and is further characterized by a steep rise in both calcium and organic carbon content. Based on the calcium record from the XRF core scan, the entire transition took place in only 55 years.
Posted by Peter Lang, Monday, 10 December 2012 12:00:44 PM
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Rhrosty says:

"We are on target to achieve 4-6C increase by the end of this century. The last time we had a temperature rise in this order of magnitude, all life on planet earth, was very nearly eliminated."

This is unmitigated scare-mongering.

We are on track for no such thing. Temperature trends now are negative; at a time when CO2 levels are the highest for a century; there is no scientific or statistical basis for saying that temperatures will increase by 4-6C.

Currently temperatures on Earth are hsitorically low:

http://img527.imageshack.us/img527/8615/allpaleotemp.png

The last warm period was the PETM:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1b/65_Myr_Climate_Change.png

The PETM was NOT caused by CO2 increase which followed the warming event which caused the PETM.

Following the PETM was a period known as the Holocene Optimum where temperatures globally were nearly 10C warmer than today; during the HO life on Earth was the most abundant it has ever been.

Warming is good for life.

I wish AGW were real, but it isn't and this article is just another recipe for wasting vast amounts of money which could be spent on real pollution issues and to prepare for the coming cold periods.
Posted by cohenite, Monday, 10 December 2012 12:31:48 PM
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