Fascinating article! The more we talk about the nuclear weapons insanity the better. I refer readers to my article in yesterday's list.

Readers may also be interested in this piece in the Guardian, 28 November 2010.

Saudi Arabia urges US attack on Iran to stop nuclear programme

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/28/us-embassy-cables-saudis-iran

Excerpts

>>King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has repeatedly urged the United States to attack Iran to destroy its nuclear programme, according to leaked US diplomatic cables that describe how other Arab allies have secretly agitated for military action against Tehran.

[…]

The Saudi king was recorded as having "frequently exhorted the US to attack Iran to put an end to its nuclear weapons programme", one cable stated. "He told you [Americans] to cut off the head of the snake," the Saudi ambassador to Washington, Adel al-Jubeir said, according to a report on Abdullah's meeting with the US general David Petraeus in April 2008.

[…]

The leaked US cables also reveal that:

• Officials in Jordan and Bahrain have openly called for Iran's nuclear programme to be stopped by any means, including military.

• Leaders in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt referred to Iran as "evil", an "existential threat" and a power that "is going to take us to war".

• Robert Gates, the US defence secretary, warned in February that if diplomatic efforts failed, "we risk nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, war prompted by an Israeli strike, or both".

• Major General Amos Yadlin, Israeli's military intelligence chief, warned last year: "Israel is not in a position to underestimate Iran and be surprised like the US was on 11 September 2001.>>

To Brian Holden:

Despite the focus on Iran I think the most likely trigger for a nuclear exchange is mistake or miscalculation.

This could happen anywhere.

I know you have called for nuclear disarmament. But what would you say to small nations that have acquired nukes to protect themselves against powerful enemies?

I mean, realistically what would you say?

Trust us?

We can debate the proliferation of nukes but we need some realism in the debate. Wishful thinking won't do it.

I'm sorry to sound so harsh but this is a serious issue and it needs serious thinking, not moralising and wishful thinking.

Countries that feel threatened are not going to give up the nuclear option. Period. Full stop. End of story.

stevenmeyer,

An interesting and dispassionate assessment of the situation we all face.

" But what would you say to small nations that have acquired nukes to protect themselves against powerful enemies?"

Yes, indeed, Australians would ask the same question if we were ever faced with the prospect of "mad mullahs" controlling Indonesia. Under the present geopolitical structure, nuclear disarmament is inconceivable. Would the US risk a nuclear exchange, even with a third rate nuclear power, in order to protect a minor ally like Australia?

Talking in purely technical terms, since Oz has a negligible nuclear industry, does the country have the capacity or potential, to produce nuclear weapons?

The Menzies' government apparently believed that in return for allowing British nuclear tests here, they would transfer some technology to Australia, however, as usual, the colonials were conned and got nothing in return.

My vote is still for the Cuban missile crisis as the closest the world has been to Armageddon.

Steven,

A well written article. From the beginning it grabs our attention with this:
“On 26 September 1983 Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov, then a Lieutenant-Colonel in the Soviet Air Defence Forces, was on duty when the Soviet nuclear early warning system reported incoming missiles from the United States…

Then peppers our interest with imagery like this:
“What do you think 200 airbursts can do”
And this:
“They were hung from cranes four at a time, or in groups of six from ropes hanging from the front of the stage in an assembly hall...”

My only small point of criticism relates to this comment:
“I find it hard to believe that Australian governments have not considered the possibility of developing nukes should the alliance with the US falter while Indonesia's military power grows”

John McCain in a criticism of Obama’s Iran’s policy during the 2008 election said: “ If you're going to aim a gun at somebody you better be prepared to pull the trigger".

While I have no doubt Obama can pull the trigger -- I seriously doubt Oz can.
Given Oz’s recent history of dealing with issues such as border control.
And given our obsessive commitment to umpteen UN covenants that no doubt would declare such an action (whatever the provocation) a “crime against humanity”. I do not see any foreseeable OZ administration having the wherewithal to pull the trigger –and worse, Indonesia and most of our neighbours know we are spineless wimps, so we would not even be able to play the bluff.

To ask those have and those "havenots" to abolish their nuclear weapons is very naive!

Lets be realistic, as long as the western powers with these destructive weapons goes around intimidating others into submission, who else does not wish to have one?!

The US is the only country that used this terrible weapons on mankind, who would trust who?