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The Forum > Article Comments > Arabian nightmares > Comments

Arabian nightmares : Comments

By Julie Bishop, published 9/8/2012

Any internal upheaval within Saudi Arabia with the potential to disrupt its crude oil production, even temporarily, would send shock waves through the global economy as prices would inevitably sky rocket.

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Foreboding indeed, especially when Australia is so dependent on fuel from Singapore (since we have allowed so many of our refineries to close and we do not have the IEA-mandated 90 days of fuel stockpile) and Singapore sources much of its crude oil from the Middle East. The current assumption is that, if supplies from Singapore fail, then we will just source our just-in-time fuel supply from somewhere else in Asia but, if the world is in a general crude-oil supply crisis who will we source this fuel from? Conclusion - we're screwed!

Both Liberal and Labor share the blame federally and at state level for failing to take fuel security seriously and putting a little supply/storage redundancy in place. The cost of doing that would have been minimal compared to wasting billions on new fighter aircraft that cannot fly without fuel. There is no "defence in depth" without fuel! (And there is no food supply to Coles and Woolies either.)
Posted by michael_in_adelaide, Thursday, 9 August 2012 9:47:24 AM
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Thanks again, Auntie Julie, for our weekly dose of fear-mongering.

It is important to stir the pot, to make people feel anxious, to make them feel that Australia must continue to be beholden to the American-Western-Conservative-Capitalist Coalition otherwise catastrophe will strike followed by calamity and chaos and the end of the world.

Of course, some folk, not many, reject this infantile indoctrination. They are called 'thinkers.' They refuse to become pawns in cunning political and corporate games.

Cheers.
Posted by David G, Thursday, 9 August 2012 10:20:24 AM
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Michael-in-Adelaide, you get it mate.
Fortunately, we have possibly massive reserves of easily accessed hydrocarbons to our immediate north.
When petrol climbs above $5.00 a litre, we will have no other choice but to explore and develop these reserves; because, ever increasing volatility threatens oil Middle East supplies.
Without fuel we are defenceless!
Without fuel we will starve!
Without fuel no plane will fly, no ship will sail, no truck will haul essentials on our highways. Without fuel, no train will haul bulk goods and the economy will die.
The green element claimed that northern tourism, would more than offset any lost income that might have been generated by potential hydrocarbon reserves?
Many tourist operators are slowly going broke; or, are already bankrupt! And now the region and the former tourist industry is awash with mental health issues.
The Townsville trough is thought to hold around 5 billion barrels of virtually ready to use sweet light crude. Given the extreme conservationism with which these calculations are usually made, the reserves are probably three times that number?
Even were we to earn only a dollar a barrel, this reserve alone would pay for 5 rigs, three of which could be placed over much larger reserves, just a little further out.
And yes, we do need foreign capital!
But wouldn't it be better if it came as trillions from oil export earnings, rather than as exponentially increasing, already record foreign debt, which we Aussies are obliged to service in all manner of ways! One is premium prices, 30%+ above par, at the checkout, or unaffordable housing?
It's time to bury the mindless mantra, which goes, "the govt has no business in business."
Which alone, is all that prevents it from getting into the ever increasingly lucrative oil business!
Which is more important, a modest deficit, which would be completely repaid by future earnings?
Or, even more foreign debt that is never ever repaid, but needs to be eternally serviced?
Cheers, Rhrosty.
Posted by Rhrosty, Thursday, 9 August 2012 11:53:45 AM
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Another It's not my fualt and I will not do anything about it article by Julie. Oh for a Polly of substance for Australia.
Posted by Kenny, Thursday, 9 August 2012 12:44:38 PM
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Julie, it is time we collectively realised, there is no way and no statesman that can negotiate/mediate any kind of lasting peace in the middle east!
Fundamental activists realise that oil is indeed their most potent weapon; and, even in very modest numbers, are adding to the multi-faceted division and rabble rousing, that simply exacerbates/foments the unrest.
A very fundamental, sabre rattling, missile armed Iran, threatens the Straights of Homuz; and along with ongoing Egyptian unrest, threatens the Suez canal.
Most of the world's oil flow through one or both these narrow waterways!
Surely it is long past time we removed the Ideological straight jackets; and mindless mantras, which is all that prevents we Australians, from exploring and developing our own possibly massive hydrocarbon reserves?
[Other even more conservative govts already have!]
Most of which, likely lays in our north eastern economic zone.
If these reserves live up to the prognostications of numerous industry experts; they could even rival or eclipse all known Middle Eastern hydrocarbon reserves.
First and foremost finding and tapping into those, lower cost to us reserves, would allow us to produce four times less carbon, than currently created by local transport options.
Moreover, we would be able to quarantine our own economy, from the logical end point of Middle East unrest?
And indeed, via income earning hydrocarbon exports, do as much for our allies/friends and other important to us economies, still currently dependant in whole our part, on Middle Eastern supplies?
Singapore, NZ, USA, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, China etc.
If we hold any concern whatsoever, for either the environment or the economy; then simply standing on the sidelines wringing our hands or throwing them up and doing nothing, is no longer an option!
Rhrosty.
Posted by Rhrosty, Thursday, 9 August 2012 12:53:01 PM
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Hi Julie,

Iran is Shia. That is the influencing factor in any disturbance in Saudi Arabia. I believe given Iran's isolation and threat to it's regional influence it is logical they would foster discontent in SA. It is their only means of threatening the west.

That the stability of SA is momentus in terms of economic conditions worldwide warrents the scrutiny of both our Government and it's alternative. Carr's just not up to such scope.

Anybody who has an interest in their own economic welfare and standard of living would agree
Posted by imajulianutter, Thursday, 9 August 2012 6:40:34 PM
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If this is the level of Coalition analysis of the "Grand Political Chessboard" then they are just as useless as Labour.

It is the International Central Banks who control the West.They have done so since 1913 with the instigaton of the US Federal Reserve.This is a private Cartel of Banks who create from nothing most of the money for the USA and the rest of the West to function.They own our productivity and the inflation they create.They loan it all back to us to be repaid with interest.They have created debt which cannot be repaid.This is why the West is totally impotent,while China who has many Govt banks that create 80% of their money debt free can grow at 12% pa, while the West languishes in debt and no growth.

This cartel of banks also have major share holdings in oil companies,drug companies and arms manufacturers.It is their interests to create wars and steal resources from countries like Iraq,Afghanistan,Libya and Iran.

The criminal war mongering imperialists are on our side.Assad of Syria is no angel but the New World Order criminals are far worse.
Posted by Arjay, Thursday, 9 August 2012 9:36:50 PM
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I think that by 2020 the 'west' will have little interest in the endless machinations of the disfunctional middle east states.

America and Canada are in a position to recover all the hydrocarbons they need for under $60 a barrel. Already China and America have reduced their middle east hydrocarbon imports by 20%. Most middle east states need a minimum $90 pb to keep their economies in the black. Soon America and Canada will be net exporters.

For years now the Middle East states have held a knife to the throat of whe west, necessitating appeasement and intervention, driven by self interest of course.
Let them close the Straits of Hormuz...who would care?

Whilst it would be distresfull, the inevitable bloodbath as the Shia, Wahabi, Sunni and whatever other tribal affiliations continue their centuries old warring, we can just leave it to the good old efficient and so so effective UN to sort out.

As Rhrosty suggests, we should be looking to our own self interest which lies in developing our resources to the north.
Posted by Prompete, Friday, 10 August 2012 6:07:13 PM
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