It's not really a mystery why TFRs have dropped in Muslim countries - there is no ideological/religious reason for objecting to contraception, unlike Catholic countries. Mullahs have been very progressive in some countries, not least Iran, in encouraging lower birth rates. The problem is, TFRs haven't come down fast enough in places like Egypt where there are no longer adequate resources to sustain the population. A TFR of 4 is actually huge - doesn't matter what it started out as. Anything over 2.1 (replacement) is in fact unsustainable. So while we must applaud the drops in TFR, don't clap too loud until TFRs get down to 2.1 or lower. Indeed, some analysts are saying that we must reduce population, so perhaps we should hold off the applause until we get to 1.6.

Spot on Steven. The population issue is not unimportant - and especially in Africa - but as a variable, it is losing its appeal as population growth is falling. Actually, it was never really up there as an issue but it has 'nutter appeal'. That's what I enjoy.

One possible reason for the drop in TFR is Muslim males working or fighting in areas away from their wives. Another possible reason is urbanisation. The trend for urban people to have fewer children than rural people is I think applies to all poulations. However, those factors would still probably not explain all the great drop.

"And sociologists' theories about population, or anything else, aren't worth the pixels"...or in general, the predictions of economists, financial experts, vested interests...etc.

There is, however, a counter argument--"Yes, of course, the trend didn't follow the forecast because governments and organisations took remedial action". Y2K for example.

No one has spotted the real reason, thus far. It's the Americans.

They've been slaughtering Muslims ever since their epic slaughtering of the Vietnamese hence keeping population growth down.

Perhaps they deserve a Nobel Prize!

P.S. Sorry, I forgot, Obomber already has one.

*Actually, it was never really up there as an issue*

Maybe for a Cheryl, who lives in blissfully unaware and spacious
Adelaide, and not on a Manilla rubbish tip, trying to feed 8 children off other peoples scraps. Ignorance is bliss it seems,
certainly for Cheryl.