Umm, yeah, we all concur. So what is to be done vis a vis Australian Government policy?

Julie I'd love to be your speechwriter - I'd give you an angle and even generate a critical argument.

Pete

If the Egyptian military really want to radicalise people with nothing left to lose? They seem to be going about it in the right way Julie?
Sure, a dictatorship and or its military adjunct, can suppress dissent, and sometimes for decades, but never ever forever!
As sure as day follows night, there will come a day of blood-curdling reprisals; if the Egyptian military try to replace one form of dictatorship with another.
The longer dissent is suppressed, the worse will be the reprisals!
This seems to be very bad news and coming at the very worst possible time for the already seriously depressed Egyptian economy.
The Egyptian military, will gain a lot less by attempting to hold onto their self-funding investments; given, the state of the global economy?
Moreover, they could lose the American contribution, which is considerable.
They also threaten the local tourist dependant economy, by their seeming recalcitrant intransigence, or reluctant refusal to adopt genuine, by the people, for the people, of the people democracy?
By any rational measure, the military have the most to lose, in so doing!
Those who crave power for its own sake, should never ever have it!
Rhrosty.

Hi Rhrosty

As with every Egyptian government since "Camp David" in 1978 the US has backed up Egyptian military rulers. This is because the US and Israel neither trust nor want to risk a strongly Islamic influenced Egyptian government.

Memories of the rise of Islam in Iran (1979) and continuing problems with it are too painful for the US, Israeli and (quietly) Australian governments to consider.

The Egyptian military are the devils the US and Israel know and can control.

So US protestations at the violence inflicted by the Egyptian military (and intelligence) will probably make way for the accustomed US multibillion/year funding of Egypt's military rulers.

This pretty much dooms the other idealists of the international Arab Spring as well - sadly.

Pete

Footnote; we for our own part, need to act with urgent alacrity, to seize/guarantee our own indigenous energy supplies! Even if that means Govt sponsorship, of exploration and exploitation the "reef"!
Not all that bad, given our naturally occurring sweet light crude, produces 75% less carbon emission, when compared to the fully imported, refined, sulphur loaded hydrocarbon products, that emanate from the Middle East?
Which option produces the worst consequences for the environment?
Locally available option which creates just 25% of the carbon, of the fully imported heavily refined product; or, the fully imported product, which ultimately, produces four times as much comparative carbon through the production cycle, than locally obtained/mined/drilled for, ready to use, virtually as is, increasingly valuable hydrocarbon products.
Look, we may be being "mindlessly" asked to lock up and throw away the key, on possible hydrocarbon reserves to our immediate north, that may rival or even eclipse the entire known reserves of the entire Middle East?
And just how smart would that be in light of recent events in Iran, Syria and Egypt? Just to highlight the most glaringly obvious!
Given any conflict in the middle East, could completely cut off the Suez, and or, the straights of Homuz; and all the current oil supplies that currently flow through them?
Without guaranteed oil supplies and substantial reserves, we and all our allies, and their allies, are virtually defenceless!
We need to see this development in the Middle East, with all the concern and seriousness it deserves, and not just solely because of the lives it may eventually cost or destroy! Capishe.
Rhrosty.

Pete, can't ague with history! Cheers Rhrosty.

"Poverty and lack of employment were two of the motivating factors behind the millions of people who took to the streets during the 18 days of protests that toppled Mubarak."

And gee whiz Julie, Australia (as in successive governments) supported Mubarak right up until his overthrow, what hypocrisy.

May I suggest you look in your own backyard (Liberal policy decisions you supported under Howard) and consider the statement you made "A powerful Egyptian military dominated by radical Islamists would be cause for enormous strategic concern."

Cause and effect, take off those rose coloured glasses for goodness sake and stop spruiking this weekly rubbish.

Following on from Geoff it reminds me of how Menzies (Howard's chicken- hawk hero) made a fool of himself during the 1956 Suez crisis. Both Menzies and Howard believed and acted on the premise that the white man is born to rule the entire world.
Rule Britannia, rule Britannia, Britannia rules the seas.

When will they ever learn?

The two most dangerous countries on the planet by far are USA and Israel.The USA with over 700 bases around the planet is the supreme military ruler.China is winning via production.This is why the West is now demonising China/Russia.

The USA has 40 bases surrounding Iran.Israel has 200+ nukes.How is Iran a threat (with no nukes) to anyone?

The USA for decades has interferred with the politics on behalf of oil companies in the Middle East.It is all about Corporate Imperialism and these lunatics are trying to pick a fight with China/Russia because they don't want their New World Order.

Guess what Julie? We don't want an unelected World Govt run by the UN either.

The GFC was no accident.It was intended to bring the whole planet to its knees so the New World Order would prevail.That hasn't eventuated so now the psychopaths like WW1 & WW2 want WW3.

I'll risk a prediction

Whatever the outcome of the current political impasse, a decade from now most Egyptians will be even poorer, hungrier and more desperate than they are today.

And the usual suspects will still be blaming America and Israel for Egypt's plight.

Amen to that Steven.

While all countries have their good and evil aspects so much is ambiguous and complex. For example Australia (mild mannered Australians) were willing components of Britain when they did awful things in India and Africa.

Russia and China killing 100 million of their own all be themselves.

Leaving ritualised, total denunciations of Israel and US as simplistic ideologies of those who can't grasp, or won't accept, evil or responsibility in other countries.

Ignorance of Chinese and Russian history ("Oh they're not democracies so not held to the same moral standards...") is always a comfortable ideological cop-out.

Pete

Stevenlmeyer,I did some research.Egypt under the auspices of the IMF and Bank of International Settlements has been privatising its banks just like we did beginning 1980.

This means that the private banking system owns the increases in productivity + inflation of Egypt and loans it back to the Egyptian people as debt.The only thing saving us is the mining boom.

Steven it is the Banking Military Industrial Complex that owns and controls the West.It has always been thus.We only have the illusion of democracy since the media determines which puppet gets elected.

The USA spends $ trillions on weapons as does Europe.There are huge profits in war that is why the USA/NATO attacks so many nations.

And then there is the Russian-oil-FSB-military complex. Russia may be the world's largest oil + gas producer known to cut off supplies and freeze citizens of countries who can't pay up, like the Ukraine.

Meanwhile China is notionally Communist but also more capitalist than the US is now, China has a 2 track economy - a low paid rural population coerced by lack of land, water and jobs into moving to the city for low wages. China is so polluted 100,000s are dieing from it every year, quietly with no redress. But whose counting the statistics are a State secret.

So evil exists outside the US (and Israel) and America's close ally Australia.

Many in the Egyptian miltary sincerely believe they are the savior institution of a country that could turn out like Pakistan or Afghanistan. Then again many in the Egyptian military exploit their position as they rise to the top (ultimately in the Military Council ruling the country). But their might be some honest people in that Council - who knows?

Its all complex - usually requires decades of study, based on data compiled by thousands of academics, policy and intelligence professionals in the West.

Pete

A sad but ultimately accurate assessment of the situation in Egypt today but what is the solution? The strength and success of the Arab Spring was due to the engagement of the middle class and the secularization of the demonstrations.

I never had confidence that the military would simply steer events they have always been in power in Egypt since the 1952 coup d’état by the Free Officers Movement led by Mohammed Naguib Egypt’s first president. The following year, after falling out with Gamal Abdul Nasser, he was replaced by Nasser who immediately banned all political parties.

On Nasser’s death in 1970 Anwar Al Sadat a founding member of the Free Officer Movement, Vice President and close confidant of Nasser succeeded him.

Hosni Mubarak was a career officer in the Egyptian Air Force where he reached to the ultimate rank of Air Chief Marshal and also served as Vice President to Sadat. Military control has been evident since Egypt’s independence.

The military were highly influential under Hosni Mubarak and their influence riddled any government that ruled Egypt. The military also had close relations with the American administration of the day separate to that of President of Egypt and close to Israel. It was surprising indeed that the military would support the Arab Spring and allow a transition from military directed governance to free civilian elections something that neither America nor Israel desired.

The military decided to sacrifice Mubarak and in the transition to democracy and the penning of a new constitution they bought the time they needed; the middle class in attempting to form a viable coalition proved to be deeply fragmented politically. The time bought also allowed the Muslim Brotherhood sufficient time to coalesce and enunciate their policy which made clear that Islam would play a prominent role in governance, an anathema to the Egyptian military, America, Saudi Arabia and Israel (the three major foreign powers behind the scene).

Where to now for Egypt and its brave rebels? I think one would find the answer with America, Saudi Arabia and Israel more than in Egypt.

Ullis the solution is to kick out the Western parasites and nationalise their banking system.They do not have to go into debt to grow.

Ulis

You've produced an excellent analysis reflecting the complexity of Egypt's situation.

One attitude ideologues take note.

Regards

Pete