Interesting article. If there is one thing the lead-up to the Iraq war taught us it is that we should never trust "intelligence" that is used to justify US aggression, whether diplomatic or military.
US complaining of other's breaking treaties is stunning hypocrisy!
Remember the NPT was all about "we phase out, you don't develop". It was never supposed to be "We retain all the veto and destructive power, you toe the line and obey".
Whilst the US plays fast and loose with the truth and their commitments they should not be surprised that others do the same to stay in the game. What a shame the arms industry and dictatorial regimes win and the civilian population looses. War is such a massive waste of resources!

Good article Marko.

What India claims about Agni V capabilities and what can be proven with hard evidence (which doesn't exist) amounts to uncertainty all round.

I agree its likely that India has not developed MIRV otherwise Indian authorities would have claimed that achievement. MIRV tests are, after, checkable using a variety of obsevation methods including US spy satellites (downlinking to earth stations like Pine Gap).

On the question of whether India has viable thermonuclear weapons ('H-Bombs') there is less certainty. India is unlikely to conduct nuclear tests because that might again politically isolate it internationally particulatly regarding US relations. India wants to stay on good terms with the US in the face of the rising China threat and due to the relative decline of India's traditional ally Russia.

I'm not sure whether an India thermonuclear test is necessary in any case. I have a feeling that with India spending an inordinate amount of money supporting Russia's arms industry (especially nuclear subs an aircraft carrier and PAK FA aircraft) India expects Russian assistance in highly sensitive areas. This may include Russian thermonuclear test results and I assume Russia supplied device designs following India's attempted thermonuclear test in 1998).

It is well known after all that China actually tested a Pakistani fission bomb (based on a Chinese design) some time ago.

I also think since the 1998 tests India, with its high tech industries and large industrial base, is now capable of producing a thermonuclear weapon. If foreign help has not been forthcoming, India may also have relied computer simulations to avoid the pariah status of nuclear tests.

When another major nuclear power (or Pakistan) conduct the next nuclear test an Indian will quickly follow.

Pete

I'm not at all sure we can trust any of the usual rhetoric or patent posturing coming out of a permanently belligerent, bellicose, endlessly reneging and threatening North Korea. I don't believe they would initiate a war without implicit Chinese support and funding. China has far too much to lose, if this tiny territory, manages to involve it in a war, even a limited one; let alone a thermonuclear exchange on their very doorstep? Rhrosty.

The two unnamed blue whales in the room are the USA which has attacked many countries and Israel which persecutes the Palistinians and threatens Iran..

I'd be building a weapons arsenal too in the light of these two psychopathic countries.