I don't see foreign security forces withdrawing for years.

This is in the sense that the ISF and other formalised forces may withdraw within 12 months. However there will still be a significant number of armed security contractors and embassy protection guards (soldiers/police) remaining in East Timor.

Such forces are particularly significant given the small size and low equipment levels of the ET army and police.

The security contractors, foreign guards and outside forces on call, including from Australia, will, for many years, amount to potential stabilising forces.

Perhaps this is a comfort for the ET leadership.

Pete

Look at wikipedia TOTAL FErTILITY RATE... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate

East Timor has (on average) six children per woman... That means that the average family has about 8 children (since not all women end up having families).

Frightening! Could you afford to educate and look after 8 kids? Do you think our government could afford to buld the new schools, hospitals, roads and somehow create more farmland every 25 years? That means for every school today, they would have to build two MORE schools and keep the original school funded? Ditto the roads and hospitals and lord only know what they can do about the farmland (sind the Lord isn;t making any more land!)

Yes East Timor has serious problems.. the simple solution is POPULATION MANAGEMENT. Thailand has done it. So has Iran, and China (in a co-ercive way with the one-child-policy). But Thailand and Iran simply provide free, long-lasting contraception and education. Give women the choice and they will have fewer kids..