While the author is apparently an Iranian-American scholar his statistics laden article raises more questions than it answers:

1. Iran's nuclear industry is an illogical extravagance given Iran's poor economic health.

Why is Iran spending many $Billions on its nuclear program and prepared to make itself an international pariah if it only wishes to use its nuclear industry for electical power? Oil rich Iran has many more pressing priorities (such as health, education and welfare) for its very limited national budget.

2. Why did Iran block access of the IAEA delegation recently visiting Iran's nuclear sites? See http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/iaea-barred-iranian-atomic-site/ :

"A high-level International Atomic Energy Agency delegation this week requested unsuccessfully to visit Iran's Parchin military site and interview a scientist thought to be overseeing nuclear bomb-related studies, further decreasing prospects for a deal to end tensions over the nation's atomic efforts, the Wall Street Journal on Friday quoted diplomatic officials as saying (see GSN, February 2, 2012).

The U.N. nuclear watchdog in November noted "serious concerns" that the Persian Gulf regional power was seeking a nuclear-weapon capacity, and suggested the Parchin site might have held a tank for performing explosive detonations relevant to such an effort (see GSN, Nov. 9, 2011). Tehran insists its atomic activities are strictly civilian in nature, and has said the installation is solely involved in conventional armed forces efforts."

"In November 2011, the IAEA reported that it had "credible" information that Parchin was used for implosion testing [implosion is an essential process for using Plutonium in a fission nuclear weapon]" see http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2011/gov2011-65.pdf

Pete
(see my direct information collection on Iran's weapon efforts http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2010/08/iranian-googling-and-amateur-sigint.html )

Iran has invaded no country for many decades.It defended itself against a US inspired Iraqi attack and won.How many countries has USA/NATO attacked under the lie of terrorism? Iraq,Afghanistan,Pakistan,Yeman,Libya,Somalia were attacked and now they want Iran's oil under the lie of Iran not producing one nuke?

Israel has 200+ nukes and not one weapon inspector there to contain their excesses.The silence is deafening.

What on earth did they think would happen?

"In short, toughness on the part of Western powers has yielded toughness on the part of Iran as increased Western pressures over Iran have translated into expanded nuclear activities by it."

If you are in the schoolyard and threatened by a bully from the biggest gang in the school, what are your options? Run to teacher and complain "he's bullying me", only to find that the teacher is part of the gang? Or dig your heels in, and find ways to make the bully's life a misery?

Iran is one of the first nation in recent times to stand firm against the concept that "the US knows best" in their country, and indeed in their part of the world as a whole. While I consider some of their tactics - principally Ahmadinejad's more racist rants - as being ill-considered, I have a great deal of sympathy with their stance against external intervention.

If it does end in some form of warfare, I will be surprised. Mainly because bullies tend to back off when faced with an opponent who does not immediately cave in to their will.

At the same time there is little for Iran to gain from unilateral action. Their only realistic target would be Israel, and that is just another version of mutually assured destruction. Ahmadinejad might be unsavoury, but he is far from mad, or even stupid.

The article's final sentence says it all.

"If this outcome is not what Western powers had intended to achieve with regard to Iran, then it seems serious revision of their current Iran strategy with the aim of a more serious and honest engagement of Iran is long overdue."

I'll go along with that.

Well said Arjay. Was the US ever really slapped for their illegal activities in Iran? How can they claim Iran is threatening with a straight face? And Israeli nukes are *not* an issue? WTF?
The bias around this issue is stunning...I wonder what would happen if Iran didn't have all that oil?

If the West does attack Iran,at the very least we will suffer economic meltdown due to sky rocketing oil prices.Iran claims to have 100,000 plus highly sophistocated missiles (which can evade radar) and aside from closing down the Gulf of Hormuz can also reach Europe and Israel.

Both Russia and China have stated they will stand by Iran in an unwarranted attack.So if the lunatics in the West think Iran will be a push over, they are insane.

Russia in 1961 exploded the largest nuke weapon ever,called the Tsar Bomb.For safety reasons they scaled it down from 100 mega tons to 50 mega tons.It was 1400 times greater than Hiroshima,or 10 times all the explosives used in WW2.It's mushroom cloud was 64 km high,it broke windows 900km away and caused third degree burns 100 km away.

Now there are some lunatics in the West who are seriously considering using these "Mini Nukes" which they seems to have been using is Iraq and Libya. Such a use of weapons quickly escallates,and there's no bringing them back once nuke buttons are pressed in pannick.