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The Forum > Article Comments > Labour pains looming in the economic fog > Comments

Labour pains looming in the economic fog : Comments

By Henry Thornton, published 8/2/2012

Equity markets famously predict many more economic booms and busts than ever eventuate.

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Well 'Henry' you do not have to dig too far to realise that the recent upsurge in U.S. employment figures is a political stunt. 1.2 million Americans were deleted off the most recent "Jobs Growth" stats. If you take into account this 1.2 million 'job' removal and the fact that an additional 300,000 to 500,000 people have completely disappeared from the official stats, you would notice that the real unemployment figures from the U.S. are actually worse than the November and December 2011 figures.

I guess when you have a State of the Union address and an election bandwagon gearing up, as President, you need a better 'unemployment' number than that which is reality.

As for China, real-estate bubble has burst and will have a major impact internally in terms of social unrest and internal economic matters.

Never mind Greece in Europe, I suspect that Germany, another northern European country and perhaps France will exit the Euro before the middle of this year. Europe is a basket case and is unfixable. When will economists learn you can't fix a debt problem with more debt?

As for Australia, our one speed economy (resource sector) will slow considerably over the next year as China's main export market (Europe) slows further. When we learn to value add we may actually get a more balanced economy. The FIRE and remaining economy (tourism, retail etc) will continue to decline, our high Australian dollar will ensure this.

With a government hell bent on getting to surplus for no real reason things do not bode well for the coming year.

I will, as usual, reiterate my mantra, you cannot have continual growth on a finite planet, with an economy based on fractional reserve banking. We are hitting those limits to growth, yet the old Business As Usual model is all we consider. My two cents worth!
Posted by Geoff of Perth, Wednesday, 8 February 2012 11:40:49 AM
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Henry why is it that you, & it would seam most economists are not seeing the wood for the trees.

Oz is heading for really deep trouble while we have such a high exchange rate. Our manufacturing industry is disappearing before our eyes. It won't take much longer for it to disappear completely. Much more of these high dollar values, & we won't have an economy to manage.

This is of course driven by our very high interest rates, compared to the rest of the developed world, & most of the rest as well. What I can't understand is how in view of this, "Henry" wants to see these interest rates maintained.

As with skinning cats, there is more than one way to do something. We used to have a "credit squeeze" to keep the lid on things in the past. Perhaps controlling the money supply could be the answer.

Slowing the growth of mining investment by not issuing permits may be another. Your the expert, so get your thinking cap on, & find a way of controlling the economy, while matching our interest rates to the rest of the world.

Perhaps a return to a government mandated 4.25% interest rate on housing loans, would see our banks borrowing less overseas, & thus able to work on lower rates, would work.

Of course we may have to get a non banker as reserve bank governor to do this. While we have a bloke there, who approves of existing huge bank profits, we have yet another problem. We have seen in the past that this one is always in a hurry to get interest rates up to where they give banks a nice juicy profit.
Posted by Hasbeen, Wednesday, 8 February 2012 8:22:07 PM
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Hasbeen interest rates did not move because job adds are at a two year high. Too a low interest rate now would enflame inflation. Better luck next month. The economy is in perfect working order, and stable. Tony's inability to guaranty the auto makers fed funds is a concern. Out income increased by 180 billion $ last year, that is a 22% rise from 2010.
Posted by 579, Thursday, 9 February 2012 7:14:09 AM
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Don't be such a fool 579, interest rates stayed where they are to keep bank profits high, & perhaps because the board thought they would look silly if the banks ignored them & did not lower rates.

With Record un/under employment, & industry heading for anywhere but here, your idea that the economy is "perfect" is rank stupidity by a Labor apologist.

The farmers I know are dropping plantings, as at the current exchange rate, exporting grain is not worth the effort. International price increases have been overtaken by our dollar value.
Posted by Hasbeen, Thursday, 9 February 2012 10:02:12 AM
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Hasbeen old boy, We can only go on supplied figures. The 3 months to december, business conditions improved, profitability, employment, and trading conditions.
We can't put in things that aren't there.
Posted by 579, Thursday, 9 February 2012 11:16:30 AM
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Mr Abbott today is calling the carbon price the worlds biggest. A question that was asked in parliament on tuesday. Mr Rudd debunked the worlds biggest carbon price and gave figures to the contrary. Mr Abbott could not have been listening again, or else he is telling deliberate lies. He must think the AU people are stupid.
For months he has been traveling the countryside telling business how the carbon price is going to effect them, he must reckon they are stupid also. If ever we have had a opposition that down talks the welfare of AU , well we have one now.
Posted by 579, Friday, 10 February 2012 11:44:45 AM
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