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Chinese outward investment: More opportunity than danger : Comments
By Derek Scissors, published 15/7/2011Chinese investment in the rest of the world, especially in the United States, continues to be a controversial topic.
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My biggest fear as an investor right now would be China. A drop in Chinese asset values would not only shake confidence in China's economic vitality, but it would also open debate about whether or not the global economy is over-leveraged and over-reliant on the success of China (it is).
Excessive leverage is partly what made the property bubble (http://australianpropertyforum.com/blog/main/3572869) aftermath so devastating for Japan, America and Ireland. There's a lot of debate about the Chinese economic bubble and it's potential impact on the global economy. Several months ago, so-called Chinese 'expert' Nick Lardy dismissed worries about what he called the "so-called property bubble" - this was during a conference held at Peterson Institute in DC.
However, he now concedes that says a real estate downturn may cause a significant in China, and this is an opinion shared by many other mainstream economic analysts.
So what changed his opinion? I would suggest a dawning realisation that most of the massive Chinese stimulus, lending and spending during 2009/10 just ended up in property purchases, which drove real estate prices in an alarming and totally unsustainable manner. The other issue is Chinese population growth (http://australianpropertyforum.com/blog/main/3580451) has declined markedly since the one child policy. Also, a realisation that China's economic system frequently produces bubbles, and that's not very likely to change in the near future!!
To understand why excessive debt and leverage is going to have a hugely negative impact on all asset classes going forward, read up on some of the work by Professor Steve Keen (http://australianpropertyforum.com/blog/main/3567572). He's the Australian guy who predicted the GFC, and he has also shown that unsustainable debt to GDP ratios in a country (which you definitely have in the UK, and we have in Australia too) will always result in deflation or depression.
Matt Cooper
Real Estate Australia
http://australianpropertyforum.com/blog/main/3580455