Tombee

I agree with your analysis.

However, waiting another 10 years before anyone does anything? Well if that is what it takes. Our children will not be thanking us, methinks.

Can anybody explain why we had the coldest day since 1916 last week?
Can anybody please explain why we are having our earliest snows since the 1980's?
Can anybody explain the very cold winter and heavy blizzards in the Northern hemisphere this year?
Can anybody explain that, if as the alarmists clain, we are to be subjected to extreme events, and that these events are now occurring, why they will get worse?
Can anybody present evidence, rather than assetion, that they will indeed get worse?

If they cannot and what we are experiencing now is the effect of global warming, why is there such hysteria over climate change?

I think we can handle the current climate and adapt to a worsening of extreme events ... easily and without a rise in taxes.

And no I won't accept, as an answer, that without global warming it would be a damn sight colder.

VK3AUU - oh sure, glaciers are melting. Sure temperatures are high. The problem is that no-one has been able to present evidence that this is forced warming, as opposed to a natural cycle.

The glaciers melting business is a prime example. Its not enough to show that glaciers are melting. Scientists need to get busy and show that they have melted, on average, past their last low point which would have been during the Medieval Warming Period.

The ground around the glaciers shows marks from previous advances and retreats of glaciers (in response to changes in temperatures), so this point can be established. None of the glaciers in europe have been reported as falling below their MWP low point. What about Franz Joseph in NZ? What about the Himalayas? We never hear anything on that crucial point.

I find it confusing that the CO2 and temperature charts seem to show little correlation to the actual production of CO2. Check out the data on the BP Statistical Review. You can download in Excel.

http://www.bp.com/sectionbodycopy.do?categoryId=7500&contentId=7068481

In 1965 the world produced 11.2 billion tonnes of CO2 but this had increased to 33.2 in 2011, a average growth rate of 2.3%. The CO2 production before 1950 is virtually insignificant compared to current production levels. Last year world CO2 production increased by 5.8%. If you plot CO2 production, it comes out as an exponential curve rather than the nice straight lines we see for CO2 in the atmosphere.

If CO2 really is causing Global Warming, I would suggest that we are already up 8hit creek.

I also support Tombee’s eyeball analysis. It can be a bit like looking at Rorschach chart. You can see in it what you want to see and others can tell something about you by what you see or fail to see (with apologies to the psychology profession).

For example, my take on Fig 1 is the cycles alternate between warming and plateauing and last about 30 years and we are well into a plateau cycle. This means we will see no more significant warming until 2028. This could be quite fortuitous because we will probably have failed to achieve our emission reduction target of 5% by 2020 and we will be able to calm the Greens down with the comfort of no significant temperature rises. Well at least for 8 years. Then all hell will break loose. The temperatures will start to rise again and the Greens will blame those that didn’t move to reduce the emissions as warned. And fair enough to.

If we can project that the long term trajectory is up (in my eyes supported by the graph) and that we can do something about it then we shouldn’t be stalled by a plateau cycle.

Once again Mark Curmudgeon seems prepared to go to great lengths to ignore or downplay evidence which doesn't suit his ideological position. There are hundreds of scientific papers, freely available, which itemise the decline of glaciers all over the world. Why don't we hear about these? says Curmudgeon. The only answer can be, because we choose not to look. (Even the Wikipedia article on declining glaciers has ninety-six scientific references, with links.) For a general overview, have a look at the UNEP Global Outlook for Ice and Snow (http://www.unep.org/geo/geo_ice/) but be warned it's a b-i-g document.