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The temperature trend is not as simple as Garnaut makes out : Comments
By Tom Quirk, published 14/6/2011Professor Garnaut's latest report relies heavily on a temperature trend which is not as solid as he says.
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I suggest that there are three fundamental questions underlying the carbon tax 'debate' that have not been addressed sufficiently.
1. Is warming happening? It is clear that there is some warming. But the question of how much is affected by clear evidence of manipulation of the data - unexplained 'adjustments' to the temperature series, unexplained changes in the population of temperature stations included in the temperature series, and general ignoring of delta UHI effects over time. There is likely modest warming happening, but how much?
2. What is the cause of the warming? The climate scientists and the politicians appear convinced that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are the cause of warming, but the evidence for this is far from clear. Roger Pielke Sr argues that man is having an impact on local and regional climate, but through land-use factors such as deforestation, urbanisation etc. There is a case that anthropogenic CO2 is a minor factor. Natural factors are highly likely to be important.
3. What can we do to moderate warming? A tricky question, especially if (as seems likely) the case for anthropogenic CO2 being the cause of the warming is not strong. What is the point of going to great trouble to reduce CO2 emissions if that isn't the main cause.
I would much rather my tax dollars be addressed at these fundamental questions. They have never been satisfactorily addressed in the public sphere. To press on with the CO2 tax is to put the cart before the horse.