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The Forum > Article Comments > Is Iran following Egypt's path? > Comments

Is Iran following Egypt's path? : Comments

By Omid Tofighian and Naser Ghobadzadeh, published 9/3/2011

The nature of the armed forces makes Iran's future markedly different from Egypt's, even if their current situation looks similar.

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Ah-mad-in-e-jah is reported to have auctioned off one of his tanks for $2 million bikkies...and the price includes the 20 telephone books he needed to sit on to drive it.
Posted by Wakatak, Wednesday, 9 March 2011 7:22:12 AM
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The analysis given in this article may surprise those who consider that the revolutionary activities in one country would be the same as in another. As stated, this is not the case and this makes Iran a very different model indeed.

If I was a gambling man, although not a billionaire as is Soros, I would be prepared to wager any monies on the fact that he is wrong in his forecast timing as it is the ‘commercial’ nature of the Republican Guard's activities that would be the stumbling block, controlling as they do so many enterprises. Common sense would indicate that they are unlikely to want to hand over such power to an elected body politic, who, it would seem to me, would want to take over all such controls from a military force, albeit a highly organised and capable one.

The complex nature of religion, politics and the military make this the most difficult climate in which to see a move to democracy. Perhaps if one is really analytical, one of the three pillars has to retreat and that is more likely to be the political arm than the other two. Even though the predominance of Islam is assured in Iran, it is the military that will eventually become the authority. Of course, that should be of interest to the US who have always favoured supporting military dictators as opposed to democratic rulers in their aims for world hegemony

There can be no more interesting potential change than Iran, a country of great culture, a very high level of education and a capability to manage their own affairs with efficiency, such efficiency making it likely to fly in the face of the US objectives of subservience and financial control. It does not need the USA.

In fact, whatever the changes are in the middle east, Iran will be the leading country, of that there is little doubt. This is evidenced by the US and the evil Israel stating that Iran is nuclear when it obviously is not.

All part of the US plan for control of oil.
Posted by rexw, Wednesday, 9 March 2011 2:09:23 PM
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Why to discuss issue of politics and something about democracy? The things are plain and easy. What is happening around the world is robbery at gun point. Nothing more, nothing less. Step by step and in spiralling course of business.
What is recently taken from the Egypt is 40bn (!) of assets of Hosni. Apparently he was richer then Bill Gates.
What someone wants from Libya is of course the oil, but cash is also needed and thus Gadhafi's assets for 30bn also frozen. Who is going to know to whom those money gone and who will get access to that cash power? I have doubt about further information about money making its way and who has count them anyway?
In Afghanistan it, of course, narcotics plantations and enormous business & power of that and lithium for the century' communication devices.
Oil and contracts on oil has gone to someone in Iraq.
That could be seeing that deployed troops have been securing the are for establishing and running businesses of private firms where that firms wanted.
My apology for not taking seriously fountain of the words about democracy that costs nothing to give to the wind. And after the public is hypnotised with sounds about good guys, one can make real money. How can anyone believe that Bob spent trillions to make charity injection for some type of democracy? Hello!
Posted by Tatiana, Wednesday, 9 March 2011 10:05:00 PM
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I managed to get as far as "Following the success of the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions..." before being forced to suspend disbelief.

An interesting re-definition of the word "success". As Premier Zhou Enlai remarked, when asked by the French Ambassador for his views on the Revolution, "It's to soon to tell".

Which is a shame, because the article makes some pertinent observations on the role of the Revolutionary Guard, and its key role in protecting the status quo. Greg Bruno at CFR has similar insights...

http://www.cfr.org/iran/irans-revolutionary-guards/p14324

The chances of an Egyptian or Tunisian-style popular uprising - leaving aside the "success" factor - would appear to be severely limited, without the explicit support of these guys.
Posted by Pericles, Thursday, 10 March 2011 7:25:14 AM
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