Yasi, once the BOM have done their usual comprehensive review it will be found to be a Cat 5 cyclone that inflicted less loss of life and property danamge, on a per capita basis, than both cat 4 cyclones Tracey and Larry.

One stark statistic (supported) I've uncovered so far is that Tracey destroyed utterly 9000 buildings and Yasi destroyed utterly 150 in the Tully region. Given the main population areas of the eye crossing and range of the Severe Destructive Winds within the orbit of the Eye, in the Cassowary Coast, were Ingham and Innisfail and both were totally devoid of utterly destroyed buildings, (in fact reports say neither sustained any significant wind or tide damage) I doubt very much there'll be anywhere near 9000 utterly destroyed buildings throughout the region.

I can't wait till I see what basis they used to determine the 300klm/hr winds in Yasi as it neared and crossed the coast ... as in the past and particularly with Tracey, that statistic was deteremined by multiplying the Sustained(1 minute) Winds by a factor of 1.25. Tracey's maximun wind gusts were found to be 236klm/hr, and that was confirmed by using more than one method. Tracey's Sustained winds were estimated/recorded(?) (Not totally sure just now and will need to recheck as doing this from memory) at 189klm/hr. From ancedotal accounts the Sustained Winds of Yasi as it crossed the coast were neglible or at the very least nowhere near 189klm/hr.

I'm still researching Larry but I expect similar results.

Colinsett - sorry but nope on all counts.

KAEP should pay attention to.

First off there is simply no scientific consensus on any level about what increasing temperatures would do to cyclones. For every paper we could cite saying that such and such would happen should temperatures increase, you can cite another that says the opposite. The conflicting papers may even have the same authors. The same thing could be said about existing trends.

I could say a great deal more about this but there is certainly no evidence that Yasi was a cyclone out of trend, and some that cyclone tracey, although a smaller storm system, had category five winds (the scientist who headed the investigation into Tracy for the Commonwealth Government told me this recently.)

In any case, the real story is about the interaction between cyclones and building codes. The bullk of the damage caused by Yasi was to housing built before the early 1980s when the building codes were changed. In the town where most of the houses lost their roofs no new houses had been built in decades, hence the damage.

So its quite possible to more have powerful storms and less damage as more of the housing stock is renewed - that is, if we are going to have more powerful storms.

That is absolute rubbish colinstt.

All the research shows a reduction in the number & strength of cyclones world wide in the last 20 years, during your global warming

Having spent many years running tourist boats in the reef waters, & checking the log books of 35 years, I can assure you we spent much more time back then, up mangrove creeks, hiding from cyclones, than they have to do today.

In fact, looking at Port Hinchinbrook & Cardwell, it would appear that even the knowledge of what to do, in a cyclone, has been lost, due to lack of practice.

It is a damn sight safer up a mangrove creek, in a sound boat, than in a near waterfront house, when the winds really gets up.

Interestingly, the one bloke who took his boat up a creek was considered "missing" feared lost, until he sailed undamaged back into port. Perhaps James Cook should run a undergrad course in cyclone survival, using his experience & expertise. Would be much more use than much of their stuff.

You are a refreshing voice of reason Hasbeen. Did the left ever have any commonsense or is it compulsory to deny all evidence and replace it with dubious failed computer models?

Compare this article with Julian's 2009 piece 'Desert Knowledge - Surviving the 21st Century'. Now there's a backflip any politician would be proud of. What's it going to be;

2009: 'The wisdom of desert knowledge...may offer clues to survival in the 21st century, not only for ourselves but, potentially, for much of humanity in dry, uncertain times.'

or

2011: 'Anyone who still thinks this is natural climate variability at work needs to think again. The processes now under way mean that storms, heavy rainfall and floods can only get more severe from here on.'

The debate from the 'climate disruption' side gets more ridiculous by the day.

Hasbeen appears to be attacking JCU. What the motive for that attack is I do not know. Of course all the toys (boats) should have been taken up mangrove creeeks for safety. All local boaties do exactly that. In the Innisfail area they all vanish up Bamboo Creek and other small mangrove lined streams. I can only presume that many of the owners of the boats at the posh resort in Cardwell were not locals but from outside the area. Sort of well off toy boaties. That would explain the ignorance displayed. For Hasbeen to blame JCU or any other university for the ignorance of the rich at play is, shall we say, a bit rich.