It's pretty much the orthodox view. It will succeed or fail on just how Kevin Rudd reacts and so far he has had the smarts and the humility to bide his time.
People on the right just can't see how adults can come together and make collaborative decisions of a higher order for the benefit of the country that are also in tune with their own need for a life.
Time will tell: can anyone say Abbott would be a better short term or medium term prime minister than Julia Gillard ?
The coalition parties need to be shorn of their hard right deadwood and this can only happen and the job of rebuild as a move toward the centre happens, after an Abbott defeat. At the moment the Coalition parties are just irrelevant Parliamentary deadwood.

Latest polling - at least according to ABC Radio News - is that votes that had been parked with the Greens were back with Labor.

Wow, we really are in trouble aren't we?

We elected Rudd, because he wasn't Howard.

Now we've got Gillard, because she isn't Rudd.

I wonder how long it will be before we are looking foe someone who isn't Gillard? The mind boggles.

Who ever said Gillard was a straight talker, hasn't listened to her too closely.

A couple of her first statments said it all for me. She told us she does not believe in a "big Australia". Then the next breath she tells us she will not cut immigration, when it is labors great increase in immigration that is driving the big Australia problem. I wonder which statment she stands by, if any.

Very Ruddish, telling both sides of a debate that you agree with them. I wonder what, if anything, she stands for.

I have a growing feeling that she is going to try, very hard, to make sure most of us don't know the answer to that, at least not before the election.

If she corrects that perception, she just may win me, but boy, I wish she would change that ridicules hair colour.

"Abbott is admired for being honest and uncompromising"
Does this mean that he is uncompromising about being a liar?
His spin has certainly succeeded beyond imagination if this is true. The man is a self-confessed liar when it suits his cause. Being uncompromising is hardly an admirable quality in a leader.

I'm with Hasbeen on this one. Gillard hasn't given us any hope that the Australian population will be stabilised, nor has she committed to slowing immigration. Continuous high levels of immigration is the motto of both Liberal and Labor camps. Her "disbelief in a big Australia" are only words without substance but, since she's only been in power for a short time, I'm willing to wait to see if she can put more flesh on those words.

Until she makes a firm decision on slowing the Australian population explosion, I'm afraid I won't be voting for Labor at the next election. A good start would be to dump the ridiculous baby bonus or the "breeders scheme" as it's known by many. If it take a cash hand-out to induce people to breed, then I have to question what sort of parents they'll make in the first place.

Pfft- it's not the supporters of Tony I'd worry about- as I doubt he has so much 'support' as he has grudging tolerance by conservative voters.

So as an outcome of the leadership drama, we can look forward to weeks of personality re-analysis and the $12 billion mining tax re-negotiations.
Meanwhile the biggest issue facing the electorate which is the $50 billion ETS carbon folly get's sidelined into the 'post-election' basket. Simplistic, condescending and meaningless statements such as 'I believe in climate change' and 'I believe man's emissions influence climate change' seem to be the order of the day, from both major political parties.
At least the Greens are to be commended for having a clear and stated policy in this area, in that they want to shut down modern fossil fuel based civilisation as rapidly as possible.
If the 'Tyranny by treaty' article in today's Online Opinion doesn't get people examining this issue a little closer, then it's just a question time before tyranny and candlelight are upon us.

Donald Duck could now attract new votes away from Abbott. The public have just been waiting for such a move and even the coalition were hoping that Malcolm Turnbull would step up the to the crease before now and show Abbott that he is there just because Turnbull was voted out on the ETS, and only for that reason. One vote on one subject.

Abbott is feckless, has no qualities to lead a boy scout troop let alone a government and most of his party know that as well. As for a presence on the international stage? Most people would migrate and become NZ citizens rather than say that their PM was Tony Abbot, a knave, a non-secular agitator and a weak and none too bright Catholic drone.

The support given to Abbott under instructions from the Likudist Murdoch and his collection of biased, rightwing publications with the Sheridans and Ackermans of this world, is an indication that poor old Abbott needed as much propping up as he could get. All over now.

The trend is away from non-secular dogmatic politicians and when he finally realises that he just doesn't have the intelligence it takes to lead a party, let alone a country (and with his intellect and ego that may take a while) he should accept a lowly position as John Howard's driver and triathlon coach and leave the thinking to someone like Turnbull, just waiting until the Liberals realise who they have inherited, by default, by one vote on one subject. The fact that they even voted for him at all, even as a joke as the only one standing, is an indication of the level of their intelligence as well. The backfire of the decade.

As for Gillard, the voters will flock to her for all the wrong reasons, the main one being to eliminate any possibility of Abbott representing anyone other than the likes of George Pell, where he belongs as a middle-aged altar boy.

The fact that some of the press saw him as a real politician is just amazing. He doesn't even believe it.

rexw - well said!

The trend is towards secular, non-sectarian politics and any political enterprise that embraces that, and acts along those lines, will be several steps ahead.

Hasbeen's point about people moving away from a person or a position is a good one - Lets see constructive policies for constructive engagement.

Rexw, I don't know which planet you live on, but from that post, it can only be in an ivory tower, in a far distant galaxy.

In the real world, the quickest way for the libs to loose votes would be to put that Rudd clone, Turnbull back at the top. In fact, in many places, getting him off the ticket would give the lib vote a boost. A reinstatement of Turnbull would increase one statistic, that is the informal vote total.

Yes, we all know that the academic wing of labor like him, just as much as they love Rudd. This does prove that an education is no guarantee of any ability in analytical thinking, more the reverse. Fortunately for all of us, the libs chucked him out, just in time.

Ironic that kicking 2 thick headed graduates out of leadership in the major parties, got a much more slippery one, into the lodge. Time will tell if she has any analytical ability, but we all ready know she is much more cunning than the pair of them put together.

Graham,

A well researched article.

The two major flaws in labor's rule so far was rushed and ill considered policy, and shoddy / wasteful implementation. JG's assent to leadership may very well eliminate some of the former, but with the largely identical cabinet, the latter is unlikely to improve.

JG is well advised to move on an early election before the end of the honeymoon period when the voters realize that there is no real change.

Same product, different packaging, same ole same ole. Right misses the mark, left also misses the mark. Nazi's are reputed to be christian But would Jesus have done what National Socialism did. A far right form of politics following philosophies from the right and left. All socialists whether right or left miss the mark of Gods best for mankind.

Rudd was ahead in the national polls when he was rolled.

It is highly possible the ALP would have won this coming election either way. With Rudd however we might have made a greater statement on the non-renewable mining tax, given it was the key issue that created the fear, the most. Media say there was a signing of some kind to happen Friday... whose knows what it all means?

I worry now that we may not get the edge on policies because the 'watered-down' rule will become norm again because polls, mining bosses and unions are back in swing with more power then they ought to have.

Secondly, as a woman I am not happy with the signal this coup sends to others. Women already find it difficult to be assertive and this kind of endorsement is not one I respect, given the backlash it will have between genders, in daily life and on culture.

Thanks Graham, for the website and the opportunity to respond.

http://www.miacat.com/

Interesting Graham. My thoughts are the biggest negative against Labor is the taint of waste - via the stimulus. Howard also had similar grants - solar, water and other environmental rebates but the difference was in delivery, and the fact that it was not highly publicised as part of a greater nation building package or as a response to a GFC.

Gillard will only do well if she is not Rudd-lite and if her leadership style both internally and externally is an improvement on the former PM.

Time will tell if she is all talk on a Big Australia and how this will be reflected in policy.

One thing is certain, Gillard will have to be more than just a populist replacement leader, she will have to perform and prove herself to a cynical electorate. The high of the honeymoon period won't last long if she is perceived as all talk and no action.

King Hazza,

I think that you are correct on Tony Abbott; he has too many rough edges.

That means, unfortunately, that we are probably the worst off we have been in regard to the quality of our politicians on both sides of the spectrum. A vote for either side is probably a waste, and there is no where else to turn.

The Polly/Ticks on these articles is amazing.

Both Major Mistakes have a vested interest in lying about each other & jointly about any new parties. Look no further than what they did to Pauline Hanson.

An excellent article Graham. Pity we could not have some more reasonable comments on it.

http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=10616#175098

paul walter, get real mate, the conservatives are not perfect, but the Red/green/getup/labour coalition are abominable. Look carefully at this little expose of "Lenin's useful idiots" & their Anti Social opposition to everything.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8630135369495797236#

http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=10616#175099

Jennifer, Did you not see the http://ninemsn.com.au/ poll on the weekend? Over 300,000 votes, 2 to 1, against Gillard winning the next election.

http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=10616#175109

Hasbeen, she is an old CARS, Communist, Anarchist, Radical, Socialist from way back. She will be worse than Krudd, just like, Goanna B Liar is even worse than Beattie was & the NSW blond isn't any better either.

http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=10616#175113

ocm, we have had "leaders" that stand for nothing, on both sides now, for 5 decades.

Between 1945 & 1965 Australia was the land of milk, honey & opportunities. We have been falling apart at the seems ever since then, because of this.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8630135369495797236#

http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=10616#175117

Aime, Agreed. Seek & ye shall find, ask & ye shall receive.

http://www.australiafirstparty.com.au/cms/

http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=10616#175119

King Hazza, i move comfortably in a wide variety of social circles both Left & Right. I can assure you TA is popular with almost everybody who isn't from the 1% of the population that is in, the Red/green/getup/labour coalition or the "Wet, small l, liberals".

I don't like the Catholic Church, as an institution, either, but that does not automatically mean that all of them are evil.

BTW, the AFP above, has CIR on its policy list.

http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=10616#175129

CO2, if you think that article was scary look at this one.

http://onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=10589

http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=10616#175135

rexw, yes dear & we all know that you are not a rusted on supporter of the Red/green/getup/labour coalition, who will say anything negative about the Conservatives, deserved or not.

I don't like them that much either but i will be voting http://www.australiafirstparty.com.au/cms/ & directing my preferences to them.

Dumping 'Big Australia' and putting sustainability first is a significant change in policy direction for Australia. It was a decision that took courage and it was one that the LNP and the Greens fled from while making the odd politic, but always safe comment about population. Although who could ever believe the Greens on anything after the trickery on the ETS?

There is nothing wrong with changing a minister or in this case a PM who was not performing and did not have the confidence of the electorate. How would it have served the parliament and Australia to have a lame duck PM drag on any longer - as happened for a considerable time in Britain out of false loyalty to the Labour PM?

The Greens have a leader Bob Brown who was not welcome in Tasmania during the last election because his old hat, divisive politics were at odds with the electorate. If the leader stinks, why rub the nose of voters in it by keeping him around? A leader should be endeavouring to represent all, not just the few sectional interests he favours himself.

The problem for the LNP is that its attack was always directed at the man, even affecting its choice of a knuckle-dragging, pugilist leader to focus on Rudd. Now the LNP is feeling wrong-footed and cheated. There is humour and poetic justice in that as the reward for the LNP's short-sighted, win-at-all-costs politics.

The LNP is ill-advised to continue with Abbott and the policies of the Howard days. They should really be getting rid of those old war horses in the shadow cabinet because they are impediments to new blood and new policies. Abbott is seen as a lurch to the right and worse still, to the Catholic right. He could have been a minister in a Fifties cabinet.

It is a mistake to see Julia Gillard as a passing phase or a female aberration because already in just a couple of days she has shown some of the qualities of a very good leader and very definitely a new broom in Australian politics.

Cornflower: << who could ever believe the Greens on anything after the trickery on the ETS? >>

What "trickery" was that exactly? The Rudd government refused point-blank to negotiate with the Greens on their abortion of an ETS. The Greens never supported the worse than useless CPRS, and stuck to their guns.

I suspect that the ALP won't be quite as arrogant if they retain government under Gillard and want to revisit an ETS.

As for your typical sniping at Bob Brown - who is probably the most honourable political leader in Australia's history - you are clueless as usual about the Greens' electoral strategies. The fact that you harp on about him so much just reflects how obviously frightened you are of the Greens.

Be afraid, be very afraid.

Hasbeen, I suspect you haven't listened to Gillard too closely, either. She did not say she will not cut immigration.

She said: "This is not about bringing down the shutters in immigration. It is a debate about planning affected by many factors: water supply, open space, infrastructure, ensuring the appropriate tax base to support our ageing population, the need for skills and the need to preserve a good quality life."

What that means is anyone's guess. It certainly indicates that she is not closing the doors, but it is not an assertion that she will not cut immigration. Certainly, it bears traces of one of the most intelligent things I have heard about immigration in a long time: that immigration must be carefully controlled to support our existing population's needs, as well as those of our physical environs.

I never thought I would attribute "intelligent" words or ideas to Julia Gillard. Life is full of surprises.

Otokonoko, "Certainly, it bears traces of one of the most intelligent things I have heard about immigration in a long time: that immigration must be carefully controlled to support our existing population's needs, as well as those of our physical environs."

That bears repeating and I was also pleasantly surprised to hear what PM Gillard had to say. That she went ahead immediately to give force to her words by re-naming the minister's portfolio is unusual for politicians. Good for her that she did it. Good for her too that she has already given pithy riding instructions for him in her media interview.

I just wanted to say something about immigration. We did another poll for the LGAQ on population growth in Queensland and I should be able to write about it shortly when they release their report. However, Julia is saying exactly what the research says she should say. Whether it is good policy is another matter. Which is about all I can say until the end of the week.

Tony is doing an excellent job himself now that Kev isnt around to help him.
A bit of advice to Tony. Take the matchbox cover SERIOUSLY<Tony. Leave redheads alone or you'll get burnt.
You're already going up in flames. You're up everyone's nose as it is.

socratease

Hasbeen is right, Rudd for not being Howard, Gillard for not being Rudd....

The pursuit of negatives is the common path trod by the envy based politics of the left.

The sooner the floaters realise under which government were they better off, the one with stable policies, fewer illegal migrants, a sense of future and less waste on empty and over priced school halls(courtesy of Gillard) , abandoned insulation schemes (courtesy Garrett) and additional Taxes (courtesy Rudd), the sooner the floaters will turn right and we might be able to salvage something from the socialist mess.

Of course Julia will have a honeymoon but how long will depend on how well she can fake it.

The most significant female Prime Minister of any nation remains Margaret Thatcher and I do not see the strength of character in Julia which Margaret brought to the job but Julia is of the left and Margaret was inherently “right”.

Cornflower, I will be delighted if you are right, however adding a word to the name of a portfolio is exactly the action I am talking about.

I think there is more than a little chance that we will find that is the sum total of her action on population.

We can hope she does not have the Rudd disease of thinking all you have to do is utter a few cheep words, & all will be well. I, for one, await some evidence that she is not so infected.

However, with all the talk of a "quickie" election, I see a plan to lock us into a 3 year term while the chance is there, before we know anything about future plans, then do what ever they damn well please.

There is no doubt that Julia will win % of the female vote.While Tony Abbott does have no nonsense marcho male factor,he often seems at a loss for words and unsure.Abbott must overcome this foilble to be electable.

The reality is that both the major parties take money from the corporate powers and do their bidding.It is time to vote for independants other than the Greens.Why is the Green movemnent so quiet about by far the largest environmental disaster in our history, ie the Gulf of Mexico.Well the likes of Rothchilds donate large sums $ to this movement.The Green movement has been bought too and will only make big noises about whales and the need for a new derivative called carbon credits to be traded on the share market casino.

I predicted that Labor could be a one term wonder 2.5 yrs ago and that Julia would knife Kevin in the back.What's the bet Graham,that the Coalition lose the next election and the come back kid,Malcolm Turnbull returns the favour to Tony?

Hasbeen, "I think there is more than a little chance that we will find that is the sum total of her action on population."

That is highly possible given the strength of the affected lobby groups. However voters cannot expect any better from Abbott or Brown (Greens).