maracas1

Its times like these that I really appreciate being lump-summed early out of government - allowing me to talk "in clear".

From our talks over the last 4 years I recognised early on that you'd been part of the action and thinking behind Fretilin. You care about people and help them for no pay. This is very impressive, even if we've disagreed most of the time.

On Fretilin and Alkatiri yes I did know of the Portuguese speaking connection: East Timor/Angola/Macau/Mozambique. I was being tendentious about communist Fretilin even if I add:

http://timortruth.com/articles/FRETILIN_chronology_1970_to_2002.pdf refering to Fretilin's "Central Committee", "Plenary Session" and "cadres" all quite mainstream communist stuff. Fretilin's "Revolutionary Council of National Resistance" has a certain ring.

CNRT may be biaised but still http://cnrt-timor.org/news/2007-06-25b.php "With Fretilin receiving worldwide support and funding from communist parties around the globe..."

This one is probably fairer http://www.pcp.pt/en/list-foreign-delegations-avante-festival - notice Fretilin, buddies and the host.

However, for balance, looks like Gusmao did indeed dance with the devil http://www.laohamutuk.org/Bulletin/2005/Apr/bulletinv6n1.html "The second change was the decision to have relations with the TNI (Indonesian National Army) leaders. As a strategy for negotiating a ceasefire, Xanana also negotiated with the leaders of the TNI, such as [Colonel] Gatot Purwanto, {General] William da Costa and [General] Moerdani/Murdani [Butcher of East Timor (including Balibo)]" http://gentleseas.blogspot.com/search/label/BALIBO . But is this a statesmanlike compromise? treason? or somewhere in between?

I don't really care how if Fretilin was communist. Its mainly how accommodating it might be to China's strategic goals in East Timor which might initially be a slow buildup of Chinese naval infrastructure then Chinese improvements to Dili airport in order to host (Chinese donated) trainer aircraft for East Timor's air force it has to have.

Regarding my canonisation of Gusmao - I've been trying a little "push praising" (comes from push polling) strategy by saying what innate goodness is expected of him; that he may owe his life to US intervention; and he has personal ties to Oz. Hopefully he may get the point a tad.

MORE TO FOLLOW

PART TWO to maracas1:

So it probably doesn't matter to Australia anymore if Gusmao/Ramos-Horta stays on or if Fretilin returns to power, just who is more willing to slow down or stop Chinese strategic infiltration into East Timor. China out, I think, is in Australia's interests though not perhaps, East Timor's.

Re:

"Malcolm Fraser as P.M. who instructed the Dili radio link with VJY Darwin to close on Xmas Day 1975 and did his best to stop unlicenced radio contact by siezing two Radio opoerations."

Five days ago I wrote on my website http://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2009/06/east-timor-history-fretilins-rebel.html that I hoped a certain "Maracas" could advise how the Australian government clamped down on reception of the rebel radio signals here in Australia. Then four days ago I deleted reference to "Maracas". Don't know if you noticed – just great minds thinking alike? :)

Significantly - here's the CACHE of 5+ days ago that I couldn't have changed in the last few days http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:IkFM-Zymyz8J:gentleseas.blogspot.com/2009/06/east-timor-history-fretilins-rebel.html+%22maracas%22+Fretilin&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk just Control F "maracas" . Great minds ! :)

Your advice, even if (usually) contrary, is really important.

Thanks

Pete
..........................

Hi nairbe

Sorry for jumping on you (in tone). I didn't realise you were sincere because I'm more used to facetiousness on many forums.

On links, my pleasure, I'm full of them.

Yes China's military buildup is important because China is geographically closer to Oz (than the US) - so we might one day be consigned to China's strategic backyard by a bought-off US.

I'm not too offended by "white Australian" as even many aid people in East Timor have a slightly condescending parent-to-child attitude to East Timorese, let alone Aussie soldier attitudes. Height differences also contribute.

As Loro Horta pointed out http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/Perspective/RSIS0972007.pdf the Chinese are making a big impression on the ET government considering the smaller amount (than Australia) China is spending. Partly this may be tact and good diplomacy but also ET's traditional leftist (OK, not communist) leanings. China knows its on a good wicket.

Regards

Pete

EAST TIMOR - CHINA'S WEST PAPUA?

While East Timorese may one day find they are an ethnic minority in their own land China will have provided military aid to East Timor with no strings attached... Increasing numbers of Chinese military personnel and economic immigrants will settle in East Timor.

Australia's appeasement policy towards China will not alter this dynamic.

So here is an article that is on East Timor's Defence Secretary's (Minister's) Julio Tomas Pinto's website http://www.juliotomaspinto.com/publication/1-julio-pinto-news/85-chinatimor-leste-pledge-closer-military-co-op.html :

"China,Timor-Leste pledge closer military co-op
Friday, 07 May 2010 11:08 Julio Pinto News

Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie (2nd R) meets with Timor-Leste's Secretary of State for Defense Julio Tomas Pinto in Beijing, China, on March 30, 2010. (Xinhua/Ding Lin)BEIJING, March 30 (Xinhua) -- Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie met here with Timor-Leste's Secretary of State for Defense, Julio Tomas Pinto, here on Tuesday.

Liang said China will make joint efforts with Timor-Leste to push forward bilateral military exchanges and cooperation. In recent years, bilateral cooperation had been carried out in areas including politics, economy and trade, energy, public health and military, and the two armed forces also conducted friendly cooperation through personnel training and exchange visits, Liang said."

Calling East Timor a future Chinese staging base to pressure Australia base or stationary aircraft carrier is of course ridiculous. Doesn't happen in Southeast Asia this side of historical parallels:

- massive US Bases in the Philippines (Clark and Subic Bay) (now closed)

- massive Russian Naval base in Cam Ranh Bay, Vietnam http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-82481113.html
"By the terms of this [secret] agreement, the Soviet Union was granted access to Cam Ranh Bay [from 1978] until 2004. "

China, unlike all major powers in history, does not need overseas air or naval bases or more land to expand its population.

We need not worry until someone important tells us that it is too late.

Just like West Papua has been steadily Indonesianized through an assistd influx of ethnic Indonesians the East Timorese will one day find themselves an ethnic minority in their own land.

Pete

Just one more observation about China's progress in East Timor.

I'm specifically interested in East Timor - a place where much influence has been rapidly ceded to China. China's progress in the entire Asia-Pacific is more glacial, so less easy to discern.

Under Rudd's pro China appeasement policies I think military experts (uniformed and public servants as well as government funded academic/think tanks) were quietly directed to not mention the March 2010 China-East Timor Defence Co-Operation Agreement (a near treaty for East Timor). It was certainly news to me.

Subordinates to Rudd could not be seen to be alarmist in the face of Rudd's micro-management of defence and foreign policy. Mere publication of the 2009 Defence White Paper has not amounted to a tangible counter to Australia bending over backwards to China.

As those 2 patrol boats constitute East Timor's navy and because they are also defacto units of the Chinese Navy the (near) treaty is quite significant so far.

I need to find out what it says/implies about harbour and airport improvements as well as possible future Chinese sold/donated aircraft and training for East Timor's airforce to be. It is possible that the focus might not be on crowded troublesome Dili but Baucau a site more fitting for a new harbour and certainly an airport that can take military aircraft:

Baucau is the second-largest city in East Timor, after Dili 122 km away....Six km from Baucau lies Cakung Airport which has what is currently the country's longest airport runway..." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baucau

Five km downhill from Baucau is Osolata, once Baucau's port - now with outrigger canoes drawn up on the beach. http://worldpics.com.au/Asia/EastTimor/baucau.html The port, while idyllic, obviously needs work to meet the standards of the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PLA_Navy ;)

Sorry to my aid friends for this geo-strategic look at East Timor and its beloved Xanana. They love East Timor dearly - and so, usually, do I.

Pete
(http://gentleseas.blogspot.com/ now called "China's Rolling Nuptials")